Mauricio Dubón’s Tear Has Helped the Astros Weather the Lack of Jose Altuve

The lack of Jose Altuve to a damaged thumb suffered throughout the World Baseball Classic has been a blow to the Astros, however whereas the group is off to an uncharacteristically gradual begin at 16-14, Mauricio Dubón has risen to the event whereas filling in for the eight-time All-Star. The 28-year-old infielder lately reeled off the season’s longest hitting streak, and on Monday exacted a little bit of vengeance by accumulating three hits that helped ship his former group, the Giants, to defeat.

While enjoying for Team Venezuela within the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals, Altuve was hit in the proper thumb by Team USA’s Daniel Bard, struggling a fracture that required surgical procedure to set. At the time, the Astros estimated that Altuve would want two months earlier than resuming baseball exercise, placing him on observe for a late May or early June return. The expectation was that until basic supervisor Dana Brown might add a participant from outdoors the group within the waning days of spring coaching, Dubón and rookie utilityman David Hensley would cowl the keystone throughout Altuve’s absence.

It felt like a giant alternative for a nearly-forgotten participant. The Astros acquired Dubón from the Giants final May 14, in a straight-up commerce for backup catcher Michael Papierski, who performed simply 5 video games for San Francisco earlier than being misplaced to the Reds on waivers. It was the third time in 5 and a half years Dubón had been dealt; after being drafted within the twenty sixth spherical out of a Sacramento highschool by Boston in 2013, the Red Sox included him as a part of the Travis Shaw/Tyler Thornburg swap with the Brewers in December ’16. Dubón performed within the Futures Game the next summer time however his progress to the majors was interrupted by a torn left ACL in May 2018. He topped out as a forty five FV prospect, no. 5 on the Brewers’ 2019 checklist, however performed in simply two video games for the group earlier than being despatched to the Giants in a deadline swap that introduced Drew Pomeranz to Milwaukee.

With the group in turnover, Dubón lastly obtained an opportunity to play within the majors, and initially the returns have been strong; he hit a mixed .274/.325/.407 (97 wRC+) and was price 1.1 WAR in 288 PA in 2019-20. He fell out of favor with a .240/.271/.380 (73 wRC+) exhibiting in 2021 and early ’22, nonetheless, and couldn’t even hit as much as that stage in Houston, batting .208/.254/.294 (55 wRC+) whereas making 29 begins in heart subject, 12 at shortstop, 5 in left subject, three at second base, and one in proper subject. Perhaps not forgotten, however with these numbers forgettable.

All of which is to say that expectations weren’t precisely excessive for Dubón coming into 2023, although his Depth Charts projection (.255/.303/.381, 95 wRC+ in 259 PA) wasn’t far faraway from his first two seasons with the Giants. He obtained the decision on Opening Day however went 0-for-3 once more the White Sox. While Hensley began the following two video games, Dubón singled off Mike Clevinger in his return to the lineup on April 2. That kicked off a 20-game hitting streak that lasted till final Friday, when he went 0-for-4 in opposition to the Phillies’ Aaron Nola and José Alvarado.

Dubón’s streak is the longest within the majors this yr, surpassing a 17-game streak by the Phillies’ Bryson Stott, the one different participant to string collectively one longer than a dozen video games. It’s the longest by an Astro since Hunter Pence’s 23-gamer in 2011; Altuve (2018) and Michael Brantley (2019) have each had 19-gamers since then.

After going hitless on Sunday as nicely, Dubón rebounded by going 3-for-5 in a 7-3 win over the Giants in Houston on Monday — a sport for which he was significantly motivated. “It felt really good, honestly,” he informed reporters afterwards. “I was not treated the right way over there. … But with Dusty (Baker) here now, I’m in heaven.”

In the primary inning, going through Ross Stripling, Dubón blooped a single into shallow heart, stole second as Yordan Alvarez struck out, and got here round to attain on a José Abreu single. After putting out within the third, he dunked a single into shallow right-center off Stripling within the fifth, driving in a run, and within the eighth in opposition to Sean Hjelle, he laced an RBI double down the proper subject line to provide the Astros a 3-2 lead that they by no means relinquished.

“He basically, significantly beat us today,” mentioned Joc Pederson afterwards.

Via The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, Dubón’s beef with the Giants went past an absence of enjoying time — he misplaced out primarily to Thairo Estrada, who outhit him handily in 2021-22 — and had extra to do with the group’s philosophy:

Dubón’s points in San Francisco weren’t with one supervisor or coach. They have been extra systemic than that. It wasn’t a lot of a secret across the group that Dubón didn’t agree with the Giants’ roster scheme and didn’t match their well-established desire for hitters who management the strike zone, draw walks and hit dwelling runs — a philosophy that supervisor Gabe Kapler executes greater than orchestrates.

After getting some pushback, Dubón clarified his feedback on Tuesday to be sure that his former teammates understood that his ire wasn’t directed at them. He went 0-for-4, leaving him with a .305/.327/.390 line and a 101 wRC+ — not precisely All-Star caliber however nonetheless a lot better than many anticipated the Astros would get throughout Altuve’s absence. It’s not arduous to see how the Giants’ philosophy and his personal would collide, as he has but to homer and at present has the majors’ second-lowest stroll fee (2.7%) among the many 179 batting title qualifiers. In truth, he has by far the bottom Three True Outcomes fee of any qualifier:

If you’re questioning, Max Muncy leads the majors with a 58.4% TTO% — that means that I’ve bookended the rankings with my protection previously a number of days — adopted by Matt Olson (56.4%), Patrick Wisdom and Gunnar Henderson (each 53.6%). As you may see, it’s not straightforward sustaining even a 100 wRC+ while you’re not strolling or homering fairly often; solely 4 of the 12 lowest TTO charges are accompanied by manufacturing that’s league common or higher.

So what’s modified for Dubón? In his telling, it’s not a mechanical repair however going as much as the plate with a plan, one thing that’s rubbed off in his conversations with teammate Yordan Alvarez, an elite hitter however a really totally different kind of 1 given his energy. Via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome:

“We talk more about approach more than anything else. I haven’t changed my swing. I haven’t changed anything, it’s just a new mindset,” Dubón mentioned. “Pick a pitch, go with a plan. If you’re going to die, die with a plan. Don’t try to change it. Don’t be afraid to go up there and fail with a plan. I’m going to fail, just fail with a plan.”

That plan has proven up in what Dubón is attempting to do. More:

“He’s staying more inside the ball,” hitting coach Alex Cintrón mentioned. “In the past, he was trying to hit balls out of the ballpark and drive the ball in the air. Now he understands that he can do that in the game, but if he stays in the middle or to the opposite field, he has a lot more chances to get on base and get hits.”

Cintrón’s feedback jibe with the distinction between Dubón’s 2023 stats and his earlier physique of labor:

Dubón is actually not hitting the ball arduous; his barrel fee locations within the eighth percentile, his hard-hit fee within the twelfth, his common exit velo within the thirteenth. He’s going oppo greater than ever and producing the very best groundball fee and groundball/fly ball ratio of his profession – and it’s working, thanks partly to his pace (which is as much as the 83rd percentile after three years within the 71st-Seventy fifth vary). His slash numbers aren’t out of line along with his Statcast ones:

It’s price noting that 95 batted ball occasions isn’t a small pattern anymore; we’re previous the purpose the place these numbers begin to stabilize. That’s to not say all of what Dubón is doing goes to carry up; already he’s regressed a bit for the reason that finish of his hitting streak, throughout which he batted .341/.367/.435 (126 wRC+). I’m significantly skeptical {that a} hitter with a 40.9% chase fee (simply 1.1 factors above his profession mark) can proceed to be as productive as he’s whereas making a lot contact outdoors the zone, although to be truthful, that contact has a notably smaller footprint than in years previous:

The actual check for Dubón will probably be how he performs when Altuve returns and the enjoying time will get tougher to come back by. That time could also be coming quickly, as Altuve was noticed taking groundballs on Tuesday, his first baseball exercise for the reason that harm and some weeks forward of schedule. Even given Dubón’s versatility and talent in opposition to lefties (117 wRC+ profession), there isn’t an apparent platoon match for him, as a result of Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are the lineup’s solely lefties they usually can deal with same-side pitching simply wonderful, thanks. His finest opening for a share could also be in left subject, the place 27-year-old rookie Corey Julks is hitting .284/.289/.407 with only a 1.2% stroll fee. The guess right here is that Dubón’s arduous work to shore up his sport will probably be rewarded, and that Baker will do what he can to maintain his bat contemporary. It’s not a world-beating bat, however as my dive into the Yankees’ dregs as soon as once more reminds us, good depth isn’t straightforward to come back by.