Sean Murphy’s Offense Has Reached a New Degree

Sean Murphy doesn’t get cheated when he swings. No matter the depend, he’s going to place up his A swing in hopes of barreling up the baseball. His profile is considered one of my favorites to look at. Although such a hitter could be extra susceptible to strikeouts than most, Murphy has managed to keep up a good strikeout fee in the previous few seasons because of strong bat-to-ball expertise and above-average plate self-discipline. Add strong uncooked energy on high of that, and you’ve got your self a profession 116 wRC+ hitter. But this 12 months, he has blown that mark away with a 182 wRC+ via 119 plate appearances. That’s an unbelievable leap that warrants some investigative work.

If I had been a hitter trying to enhance, I’d give attention to two issues. The first is tweaking my mechanics to make myself much less susceptible to exploitation. In different phrases, I’d be sure my bat path might cowl totally different heights and depths of the zone in order that I could be adjustable to totally different speeds and places. The different method could be to be taught with what pitches and by which zones I’m already good at making flush contact and modify my swing choices to cater to these tendencies higher. These two issues are sometimes intertwined, however relying on the place a hitter is at of their profession, they might give attention to yet another than the opposite or have an equal break up.

For Murphy, it appears the main target has been extra on matching his swing choices to his strengths, and that has labored very nicely up to now. Below is a desk together with his swing charges by pitch kind in the previous few seasons:

This 12 months, Murphy is swinging at fewer fastballs and breaking balls than he usually has, resulting in an total Swing% lower. In 2021 and ’22, he swung at fastballs and breaking balls 47.6% and 49.3% of the time, respectively. This 12 months, that quantity is right down to 43.0%, the bottom since his finest offensive 12 months within the shortened 2020 season, the place his Swing% was 41.3%.

The bulk of that change comes from not chasing as usually. Murphy’s chase fee on fastballs and breakers have each seen notable drops. For someone who had a chase contact fee of 61.1% in 2022, it is a massive enchancment. Most hitters aren’t good at discovering the barrel outdoors of the zone, and Murphy is not any totally different. If you chase much less steadily, you’re taking away alternatives for extra whiffs and barrel suppression.

As a hitter, in case you get higher at concentrating on places the place you already know you may have extra room for error when it comes to getting your barrel to the ball, then you’ll be able to transfer your batted ball profile in direction of its optimum type. And that’s precisely what Murphy has seen occur to date this season. For the primary time since his cup of espresso debut in 2019, he’s pulling half of his batted balls (50.7%). In the earlier two full seasons, he pulled the ball 39.7–41.5% of the time. Pulling the ball isn’t at all times the correct prescription for each hitter; for some, it dangers an excessive amount of high spin that may drag down your batted balls within the air, or it will probably imply not making contact when your bat path is in an upward trajectory (rolling over). But Murphy’s finest contact has at all times come when he pulls the ball. Below is a desk of all of Murphy’s batted balls higher than or equal to 95 mph and between an 8–32 diploma launch angle; the previous is Statcast’s definition of exhausting hit, and the latter is its definition of the candy spot:

The most preferrred technique to show this information could be bucketing by spray angle, slightly than utilizing Statcast’s directional definitions, however that information is just not publicly accessible. If this had been separated by spray angle, it’d be simpler to see that batted balls to the left facet of the sector are most preferrred for Murphy. Either method, the odds clearly present that he doesn’t have the form of reverse subject energy that will justify making an attempt to make {that a} predominant a part of his sport. His finest possibilities of hitting the ball exhausting within the air is by hitting it to the left facet. The following spray chart exhibits you what this group of batted balls appears to be like like on the sector. (The venue chosen for the scale is Truist Park.)

If you couldn’t see it on the desk, you’ll be able to positively see it right here: Murphy’s dwelling run energy is from the pull facet hole to the left subject foul pole. Unfortunately for him, this wasn’t preferrred for a right-handed hitter in Oakland. According to Statcast’s park components, Oakland Coliseum has been the third-least hitter-friendly park for right-handed hitters within the final three seasons when it comes to wOBACON, whereas Truist ranks seventh. And whereas dwelling/highway splits evaluation doesn’t at all times inform the complete story of a hitter, Murphy’s 106 wRC+ at Oakland in comparison with 126 elsewhere throughout his tenure there may be notable. Perhaps he feels extra snug with this method in his new dwelling, however it doesn’t matter what, it’s clear that is one thing that needs to be a everlasting change.

Typically, that is the purpose in a chunk the place I introduce mechanical adjustments as a complement to the swing resolution and batted ball evaluation. But once I was watching Murphy’s tapes from this 12 months and final 12 months, he didn’t look all that totally different. See for your self: The first three swings are from his closing month in Oakland final 12 months, and the opposite three are from his first month in Atlanta, all on fastballs within the coronary heart of the plate:

2022 Swing 1

2022 Swing 2

2022 Swing 3

2023 Swing 1

2023 Swing 2

2023 Swing 3

The setup and end are each very related, the leg kick hasn’t undergone any vital adjustments, and the stride route is sort of equivalent. All I can say is that issues look smoother and extra related. There is likely to be barely totally different timing mechanisms happening with the leg kick that has led to a extra related swing between the higher and decrease physique, however once more, there haven’t ben any vital adjustments. That tells me that the change in swing resolution is the main issue on this early scorching streak.

As hitters grow old, they usually higher perceive who they’re and what their swing can do. There are a number of variables at play with Murphy, but it surely appears as if he has gotten to the purpose the place he understands the precise method he must should be one of the best model of himself. We’ve seen this occur with hitters in Atlanta earlier than, and he’s most probably one other instance. Will pitchers modify to his modified method? Probably; that’s simply life within the massive leagues. But from his perspective, it will probably take years to get up to now the place you already know your recipe for fulfillment. Even when he sees his inevitable regression from his exorbitant .340 ISO, he’ll nonetheless know what his blueprint is to optimize his profile, and that’s enormous for himself and his staff.