Matt Chapman Is a Weapon of Mass Destruction

Matt Chapman has lengthy been a sabermetric darling, however it was largely on the idea of mixing elite protection on the scorching nook with merely above-average offense. While he’s all the time hit the ball exhausting, his fairly low BABIPs and middling contact abilities have been a ceiling on his manufacturing on the plate. With his glove in decline and getting into his age-30 season, it was an open query as to how profitable he would discover free company on the finish of the season. But Chapman’s 2023 season has been an offensive tour de power, with a seasonal line of .364/.449/.636, a 202 wRC+ and a pair of.0 WAR as of Thursday morning. The Blue Jays have gotten higher than a .700 OPS at solely three positions this season (first base, third base, shortstop), and Chapman’s sterling efficiency is without doubt one of the fundamental causes the offense has nonetheless been capable of rank sixth within the American League in runs scored.

Just to get it out of the way in which: Chapman’s not going to hit .364 for the 2023 season. Looking on the zBABIP that ZiPS calculates for him, it thinks his BABIP needs to be extra like .300 primarily based on how he’s hit, not the present .461 determine. But what does appear to be it’s right here to remain is the extent of energy he’s displayed; if he had been a pc program, David Lightman would have skipped Global Thermonuclear War and performed Matt Chapman as an alternative. An common exit velocity of 95.6 mph and a hard-hit price of 66.7% are in ultra-elite territory, and small pattern sizes for information like these are comparatively significant. Chapman’s barrel share to date has approached a ridiculous 30%, a quantity no person’s been capable of contact in a full season (Aaron Judge at 26.2% in 2022 is the one participant to date to beat 25%).

You can argue that Chapman is definitely barely underneathperforming primarily based on his energy numbers. A .636 slugging share is sort of thrilling — a quantity massive sufficient to steer the league pretty usually. But Statcast’s xSLG thinks his slugging share needs to be even larger, at .716. ZiPS agrees with this usually, giving him a zSLG of .703 and a zHR of 6.8 in comparison with his precise 5 round-trippers. Putting up an xSLG of .700 is one thing elite energy hitters do; solely 46 gamers in StatCast historical past have managed that a minimum of as soon as. Here’s the total .700 Club and the way they fared for the season total; I’ve listed every participant’s finest month fairly than listing all the particular person months:

Not all of those gamers had been really elite hitters over the lengthy haul — I’m you, Danny Valencia — however this group as a complete did end the yr with top-notch offensive seasons. Of the 33 seasons listed right here during which the participant in query completed with a minimum of 500 plate appearances, 27 featured a minimum of 30 homers, 31 a slugging share above .500, and 22 a wRC+ above 139 (Chapman’s career-best quantity to date). Overall, in all of the seasons during which a participant had a month with a .700 xSLG, the common ultimate end result was 34 homers, a .569 slugging share, and a 148 wRC+.

So what has modified for Chapman? Sports Illustrated talked about Chapman spending the offseason revamping his swing.

By the tip of 2022, Chapman determined he would revamp the “load” portion of his swing, ditching the delicate leg kick he discovered inefficient and inconsistent, at instances. Over the offseason, Chapman changed the kick with a fair subtler toe faucet, gently pushing off the bottom earlier than sliding ahead into assault place. The outcomes have been fast, as Toronto’s scorching nook has toe tapped his solution to the most well liked begin in baseball.
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Last yr, Chapman discovered himself “stretched out” on the plate. He would step ahead out of his leg kick too far, throwing his swing off stability and pushing his bat path underneath the ball. He turned the king of the warning observe fly-out, posting the bottom HR/FB% of his profession. The 2023 toe faucet shortens him up, skimming his entrance foot alongside the grime into the specified plant location. Every faucet isn’t equivalent, however Chapman’s obtained extra room for error now than with the kick.

The reply as to whether or not this transformation is the rationale Chapman has hit so effectively is one thing that’s in the end unknowable. But there’s information that’s in step with this clarification. For one, he’s not being any extra selective on the plate, nor has he tinkered with the aircraft of his swing, however he’s making considerably elevated contact. Increasing contact price and additionally growing the standard of the contact and not altering the combo of pitches you’re providing at is a troublesome needle to string. I like to recommend testing the entire SI article linked for extra of this.

Since that is me and I’ve entry to a fancy-pants projection system, I wish to have a look at the results of Chapman’s enchancment. Suffice it to say, ZiPS and the opposite projection techniques like him much more in May-to-September than they did coming into his season. ZiPS has gone from a preseason wRC+ of 127 to a RoS of 138 over the course of a month, a achieve of 11 factors. There are related jumps in Steamer (112 to 123) and THE BAT (113 to 128). With two WAR already banked, ZiPS now has Chapman ending with 6.7 WAR on a line of .275/.368/.516 with a wRC+ of 152. That WAR now ranks third in baseball, behind solely Judge and the revitalized Acuña. And that is utilizing the less complicated in-season ZiPS mannequin, fairly than the total one which has entry to all of the StatCast information. With that information included, ZiPS tasks Chapman to complete at .293/.383/.587 for 2023, which places him much more squarely within the MVP combine, particularly if Judge’s sore hip proves to be a hindrance.

And since Chapman is a free agent on the finish of the season, there are additionally monetary repercussions. He’s moved the needle sufficient that he’s a bigger contract than appeared possible a month in the past. Coming into 2023, ZiPS projected him to get a five-year, $113 million contract when he hit the open market:

As of Thursday morning, ZiPS now tasks him to make $149 million over those self same 5 years. I can not keep in mind ever working a projection and having a greenback determine transfer that a lot ($36 million) over the course of a single month. I even went again and checked 2022 Aaron Judge month-by-month and by no means obtained that a lot of a change in trajectory. And that is regardless of the continued erosion in his defensive expectations.

However Chapman’s doing it, his 2023 is tallying wins for the Jays and future {dollars} for him. The Blue Jays have had a bunch of issues go unsuitable this yr, however Chapman going proper is an enormous a part of protecting them firmly within the playoff image.