I’ve made one other small collection of updates to the Top 100 Prospects record, which you will discover on The Board. For the primary time this season, I’ve reshuffled a few of the names within the prime 15 to twenty spots. Mostly, I’ve accomplished some incremental reordering close to the highest based mostly on well being and present degree of play. For instance, Mets catcher Francisco Álvarez, who has stored his head above water after being thrust into the first catching function in Flushing, has hopped over Jordan Walker, who’s struggling to get comfy on each offense and protection down in Memphis. Neither participant’s analysis has had an overhaul — that is only a higher illustration of how issues line up proper now.
The largest mover within the 60 FV tier is Diamondbacks heart fielder Druw Jones, who falls towards the again of that group resulting from his quad pressure and early-season strikeout points. It might make sense for Jones to rehab in prolonged spring coaching or in the course of the early a part of the Complex League schedule and hit his means again to Visalia. It seems like he shall be again before Phillies righty Andrew Painter, who stays on the very again of the 60 FV tier whereas he continues to rehab from a UCL damage.
Changes to the highest of the 55 FV tier buoy the hitters who’re performing towards the highest of that group. The gamers from no. 14 to 18 total (Marcelo Mayer, Brooks Lee, Endy Rodríguez, Brett Baty, Josh Jung) now stack forward of Jordan Lawlar and Diego Cartaya, who’re each hanging out lots at Double-A. The different modifications throughout the 55 FV tier come towards the again of that group. Red Sox outfielder Miguel Bleis and Pirates infielder Termarr Johnson slide about 20 spots (the 2 of them have been stacked at no. 19 and 20 total), whereas Rays infielder Junior Caminero (who had been floating among the many high-variance hitters within the again third of the 50 FV tier for a few 12 months now) strikes up from 110 total.
This trio has big instruments and large danger related to strikeouts. Johnson is coming off a hamstring pressure and struggling to get traction within the Florida State League, the place he’s hanging out 40% of the time despite the fact that the pitching isn’t excellent. The oppo, slasher strategy he confirmed in opposition to outer-edge pitches whereas he was in highschool isn’t there proper now, and he isn’t displaying the identical plate protection he was final 12 months. It’s potential Johnson has deliberately change into extra pull-oriented (I get it, it’s the place his largest energy is), and it’s additionally potential he’s been rusty due to the time without work because of the hamstring pressure. Either means, I can’t have a man hanging out at a virtually 40% clip within the Florida State League ranked twentieth total. His FV grade hasn’t modified, he’s simply slid behind gamers who’re performing and/or are extra proximate to the massive leagues.
Bleis and Caminero each have hit software danger derived from their lack of plate self-discipline. Caminero is hitting (like actually, actually hitting) proper now, however sooner or later his lack of ball/strike recognition goes to have an effect on his output or power him to make an adjustment. That is already taking place with Bleis, who’s out of the gate gradual at Low-A Salem. Both Caminero and Bleis have reassuring traits that not solely make them thrilling prospects, however make us optimistic they’ll succeed regardless of their epicurean strategy to hitting. For one, to the bare eye they’re each ridiculously gifted. Caminero has an Adonis-like construct and plus-plus bat velocity. Bleis swings with stunning verve for a thin teenager. Both of those guys are additionally making about a mean price of in-zone contact, and in Bleis’ case it’s really been higher than that. These are traits that chase-prone stars like Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., Adolis García, and different profitable free swingers have proven within the minors. I’ve up to date Caminero’s blurb on The Board; he’s the one participant I’ve talked about to date whose FV grade has really modified.
There are two extra additions. One is Reds shortstop Matt McLain, who strikes into the Top 100 as his hit software has taken a full grade leap from final 12 months. He’s getting crushed by fastballs in on his fingers far much less usually than he was final season, and he’s made a swing change that helps the on-paper enchancment on this space. I am going into the change extra deeply in his up to date blurb, however McLain’s stance and stride route have each been extra open this 12 months, enabling him to raised snatch pitches in on his fingers than he was in 2022. Here’s a swing-and-miss final 12 months in comparison with a ripped double this 12 months, with screengrabs of his stance, in addition to his physique place as his entrance foot lands and on the level of contact:
His skill to activate these pitches moderately than swing beneath them has McLain making one thing nearer to a mean price of in-zone contact for a giant leaguer. Fold in playable energy and viable shortstop protection, and you’ve got a prospect just like the Ezequiel Tovar and Oswald Peraza contingent close to the very prime of the 50 FV tier, a plug-and-play on a regular basis main league shortstop.
Finally, the Atlanta Braves once more have a Top 100 prospect as AJ Smith-Shawver strikes into the 50 FV tier upon promotion to Triple-A. This isn’t like with Painter final 12 months the place by the point he had made a couple of Double-A begins, he had already proven polished utilization of two extra pitches than he was in April. Smith-Shawver nonetheless has a number of key developmental checkpoints left to hit. His line to the plate, together with usually throughout his final begin at Mississippi, can waiver all over and influence his fastball command. However, his really feel for his curveball has leveled up since his first couple of begins, and his really feel for finding his slider (which is usually higher than his fastball command) constantly provides him a go-to weapon that may miss a bat in a giant spot. He nonetheless hasn’t allowed an earned run this 12 months and is now the youngest participant at Triple-A. There’s massive long-term projection right here due to the athletic and mechanical parts mentioned all through Smith-Shawver’s scouting report. That stuff carries a number of weight in forecasting above-average command and a superb changeup down the road. He’s now stacked close to Cubs righty Ben Brown on the Top 100 record. Both are huge-framed late-bloomer varieties with two good breaking balls.
Updating the Rays record
The Rays farm system is extraordinarily necessary to know as a result of they’ve the perfect report in baseball and play in a hotly contested division, making them seemingly deadline patrons. I’ve up to date their prospect record over on The Board, which now consists of notes collected from their prolonged spring coaching group in addition to tweaks to a few of the gamers who have been already on there the place I felt it was applicable. They nonetheless flash influence instruments and athletic skill, however Kameron Misner and Greg Jones are each hanging out 40% of the time and want to slip. They fall right into a 40+ FV tier that, other than Cooper Kinney (wholesome and making a lot of contact, however nonetheless with out a clear place) and Brailer Guerrero (who simply signed), is stuffed with gamers who’re underachieving. Most of that FV tier both isn’t hitting (Mason Auer, Heriberto Hernandez, Willy Vasquez, Xavier Isaac) or is damage/rehabbing (Nick Bitsko, Ian Seymour and Colby White, who a supply noticed sitting 92-94 mph with no strikes in prolonged spring coaching).
Triaging the names in that tier shall be an important Rays-related activity to perform between now and the tip of July. The upper-level hitters from that group felt like near-ready role-players in the course of the offseason they usually’re all face-planting to date. The group of gamers at Durham who’ve misplaced rookie eligibility, however who you would possibly nonetheless take into account “prospects” — Vidal Bruján, René Pinto, and Jonathan Aranda — are all extra fascinating in commerce than anybody south of Kinney on the prospect record. Aranda particularly might in all probability be an on a regular basis stick for lots of different groups.
Aside from Caminero’s ascent, there isn’t a transparent riser on this system but this 12 months, and so the remainder of the modifications to the Rays record come by way of additions from the prolonged spring contingent on the complicated. The added gamers are:
You can determine this group shortly on the record by in search of motion within the “Trend” column.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com