The Padres’ Offense Is Damaged, and So Is Manny Machado’s Metacarpal

After a season during which he led the NL in WAR and completed second within the MVP voting, Manny Machado was alleged to be proper in the midst of the Padres’ takeover of the NL West. Instead, he’s off to a subpar begin for a stumbling, sub-.500 crew, and now he’s added harm to these insults. Manager Bob Melvin revealed on Wednesday that Machado has been recognized with a fractured metacarpal in his left hand and might have a stint on the injured record.

The 30-year-old third baseman was hit by a slider from the Royals’ Brad Keller within the second inning on Monday night time, and whereas he remained within the recreation, he was changed by pinch-hitter Rougned Odor within the fourth inning and didn’t play on both Tuesday or Wednesday; the Padres had Thursday off. Initial x-rays didn’t present the break, however CAT and MRI scans taken on Tuesday revealed that he had suffered a hairline fracture of his third metacarpal.

That revelation was solely a part of a darkish day for the Padres, as they dropped the rubber match of their collection towards Kansas City, 4–3, and heard their share of boos from the 32,416 followers at Petco Park. They didn’t lose for lack of alternative, going simply 2-for-9 with runners in scoring place and 0-for-3 with the bases loaded. They’ve misplaced 9 of their final 12, together with 5 out of six to the Dodgers, and fallen from 17–15, one recreation behind Los Angeles within the NL West, to twenty–24, 7.5 video games again. Their odds of profitable the NL West have fallen from 55.4% as of Opening Day to 37.8% earlier than the skid to 12.9% as of Friday morning; their 41.6-point drop of their odds of profitable the division is the majors’ largest, and their 23.4-point drop of their odds of reaching the playoffs — from a season-opening 85.3% to 61.9% — is second solely to the Cardinals’ 26.6-point drop amongst NL groups.

After Wednesday’s loss, the crew held a players-only assembly, with Matt Carpenter providing a abstract:

“We’ve just got to do a better job… You can feel the angst from the fans, and we feel it. It’s just some very unhappy time in the clubhouse — like (it is for) anyone following the team. We haven’t been able to execute like we were hoping we would at this point. So something’s gotta be done. We’ve got to do a better job.”

…“A little bit of a snowball situation kind of happening… where you get an opportunity in a game and guys want it so bad that they take themselves out of the at-bat by doing something that they otherwise normally wouldn’t do.”

As a crew, the Padres are hitting .196/.293/.333 for a 73 wRC+ with runners in scoring place; the batting common is useless final within the majors, the wRC+ and OBP are each second-to-last, and the SLG is third-to-last. Overall, they’re second-to-last within the NL in scoring at 3.91 runs per recreation and tenth in wRC+ at 96 and are hitting a mixed .226/.317/.382, with all the slash numbers within the league’s backside 4.

This is the primary time Machado has ever damaged a bone, and at this writing it’s not a provided that he’ll go on the IL, a site he’s prevented since struggling a season-ending proper knee sprain in 2014; final yr, he dodged the IL however missed 9 video games in late June as a result of a sprained left ankle. The Padres are holding out some quantity of hope that by Friday, he’ll be capable to play. Via the San Diego Union Tribune’s Annie Heilbrunn:

Manny mentioned the swelling in hand has gone down tremendously. Has extra vary of movement right now. It’s a matter of coping with the ache, with the ability to grip the bat, and so forth. Will see how it’s in just a few days…

To be clear, he’s going to do what he must do to heal and be capable to produce for the crew. If meaning a stint on the IL, he understands that. But there’s no verdict on that for now.

That mentioned, the placement of the fracture, within the metacarpal that extends beneath the center finger, is correct in the midst of the hand. The indisputable fact that it’s a hairline fracture means it’s not displaced and doesn’t require surgical procedure, however that doesn’t translate to full performance or an absence of ache. Even if Machado is harder than a two-dollar steak, that doesn’t essentially imply he can intestine this out. Such fractures can take six weeks to totally heal, although it wouldn’t be a shock if Machado tries to return far more rapidly than that.

If Machado does miss important time, the Padres will doubtless proceed the reshuffle of their already rearranged infield by taking part in Ha-Seong Kim at third base, the place he’s spent the previous two video games and has 55 video games of main league expertise. They may return Jake Cronenworth to second and provides Carpenter, their platoon DH towards righties, extra time at first. On Tuesday and Wednesday, they performed Odor at second, however he’s hitting simply .154/.254/.250 (47 wRC+) and hasn’t had a wRC+ above 83 since 2018.

Playing although a hand harm isn’t more likely to enhance Machado’s offensive efficiency, which has been dismal, significantly when in comparison with final yr’s .298/.366/.531 (152 wRC+) displaying. He’s off to a .231/.282/.372 (81 wRC+) begin and has been much less productive in May (.217/.288/.326, 73 wRC+) than March/April (.236/.280/.391, 84 wRC+). He’s not hitting the ball as exhausting as final yr, however then even final yr he wasn’t hitting the ball as exhausting as he did in 2021, when his outcomes weren’t pretty much as good:

Oddly sufficient, Machado’s 2021 Statcast anticipated numbers match up higher to his precise ’22 numbers than his precise ’21 ones. He was properly forward of his anticipated numbers final yr and is forward once more this yr, nevertheless it’s not amounting to a lot: His common exit velocity ranks within the forty seventh percentile, his hard-hit charge within the forty second, and his barrel charge within the thirty eighth. The 2022 mannequin of Manny is nowhere to be discovered, besides maybe on protection.

A couple of issues with Machado significantly stand out. Because swing charges are among the many first stats to stabilize (beginning at round 60 plate appearances), that’s one of many first locations I take a look at a hitter who’s off to a sluggish begin to see if he’s swinging and chasing pitches exterior the zone extra usually — a sample that means a participant is perhaps urgent, as Eno Sarris famous just a few years in the past. But whereas Machado’ 35.6% chase charge is a profession excessive and his 50.4% swing charge is sort of one as properly, each are near the place he was final yr — 34.2% for the previous, a career-high 50.8% for the latter — in far more profitable occasions. Similarly, his 85.1% zone contact charge is a profession low, nevertheless it’s solely half a degree decrease than final yr; his 12% swinging-strike charge is a profession excessive, but simply 0.4 factors above final yr. His 20.6% strikeout charge is simply an eyelash beneath final yr’s profession excessive. In the combination, his swing selections are much like final yr, so you may perceive why he’s preaching a dedication to course of.

Looking at Machado’s rolling chase charge does counsel the define of a story:

I went with a seven-game rolling common to approximate per week, seeing if we may detect modifications. To these eyes, the story is that Machado was very aggressive in chasing pitches early in 2023, nevertheless it didn’t repay (word the excessive O-swing% and low wOBA). He then reined himself in and began swinging much less, however that didn’t work both, so he went again to swinging extra. Things then acquired as unhealthy as they’ve been, production-wise, and solely briefly did he discover some form of equilibrium earlier than getting injured. By comparability, final yr he was far more disciplined early and began hotter and was in a position to increase his zone and chase his means out of some slumps, however he did have intervals the place issues didn’t at all times work if he acquired too aggressive or too conservative.

Putting that admittedly subjective interpretation apart, the opposite factor that basically stands out is that Machado’s efficiency towards four-seam fastballs has been deteriorating:

With the exception of slight rebounds in xSLG and Whiff%, Machado is into his third straight yr of decline towards four-seamers nearly in every single place you look. He wasn’t even all that good towards them final yr, ending three runs beneath common in what was in any other case an enormous season; by comparability, he was 16 runs above common towards four-seamers in 2019, 5 above in ’20, and 13 above in ’21. We’re in small-sample territory right here, however that’s an ominous pattern contemplating the Padres simply dedicated $350 million to him over the subsequent 11 years.

If you’re on the lookout for a good smaller and extra unsettling pattern, right here’s the pattern for Machado towards four-seamers 95 mph and better:

As you may see, such fastballs are taking on an growing share of the pitches Machado sees. He’s struggling to deal with them to a good higher diploma, with an elevated whiff charge, an absence of barrels, and an growing proportion of poor contact (balls that Statcast classifies as weak, topped, or beneath that not often go for hits).

Baseball Savant doesn’t provide full definitions of these poor contact sub-classifications, however you may get a really feel from the radial graph above: yellow is the weak contact, balls with very low exit velocities; inexperienced is topped, balls typically hit downward which have increased EVs than the weak ones; and light-weight blue is beneath, balls hit within the air however at angles too steep to be very productive, largely popups and cans of corn (although down a brief foul line, the occasional one may get out).

On that topic, for the years lined by Statcast (2015 onward), poor contact accounts for 58.9% of Machado’s batted ball occasions, which is beneath the key league common of 61.4% in that span (sure, greater than half of the batted balls of even good hitter typically land in a type of three buckets). For final yr, he was all the way down to 55.9% poor contact, however this yr, he’s as much as 65.1%, together with a profession excessive 30.9% within the beneath class. Last yr, he hit .115 (practically double his .063 xBA on such balls) and slugged .212 with two homers on the 114 batted balls in that class; this yr, one-quarter of the way in which to the season, he’s hit .054 and slugged .081 on 38 when getting beneath one.

Looking at Machado’s efficiency another means: through Statcat’s Swing/Take metrics, final yr on pitches within the coronary heart of the strike zone — what Statcast defines as the center 13.3 inches of the plate, and the center 16 inches of the zone vertically — he was 16 runs above common. This yr, he’s 5 beneath common. He’s gone from 5 above to 5 beneath within the shadow of the zone (the perimeters on both aspect) as properly:

Long story brief, Machado isn’t doing sufficient with the plain strikes he’s being thrown, fastball or in any other case, and he’s battling the borderline pitches as properly.

He’s not alone in his frustrations, not on a $249-million payroll crew that’s studded with stars within the lineup, and that has gotten prticularly subpar work from starters Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove as properly. Even with the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. and the latest resurgence of Juan Soto, the Dads have been unhealthy, with simply 4 regulars and a platoon DH who’ve a 100 wRC+ or higher. Only one common has matched or bettered his preseason projected wRC+:

I suppose that’s why you signal Bogaerts for $280 million. If solely the Padres had been getting wherever near what they although they’d from the man they signed for $350 million, they’d be in higher form, nevertheless it could possibly be awhile earlier than Machado is ready to assist flip issues round.