Darick Hall’s Absence Additional Weakens a Skinny Phillies Lineup

It got here as an enormous blow to the Phillies when Rhys Hoskins, a profession 125 wRC+ hitter and the de facto group captain, went down with a season-ending damage. But if there have been a silver lining to the circumstances, it was that Darick Hall would get the chance to show himself with a extra common position within the beginning lineup. Even Hoskins agreed; the day after he tore his ACL, he instructed Hall he was genuinely blissful for him. The 27-year-old non-prospect compelled his solution to the majors final summer season after hitting 20 dwelling runs in 72 video games at Triple-A, then crushed one other 9 on the massive league stage, ending with a .522 slugging proportion and 120 wRC+. This yr, he had a shot to point out he might preserve slugging over a full season. If he might, the Phillies can be significantly better outfitted to deal with the lack of Hoskins.

Unfortunately, Hall’s massive probability was short-lived. On Wednesday afternoon, the winds started to vary and the clouds turned darkish. The silver lining grew to become tougher to see amid the storm. While making an attempt to stretch a single right into a double, Hall landed awkwardly at second base, jamming his proper thumb into the aspect of the bag. He stayed within the sport for an additional inning however ultimately got here out when he realized one thing was amiss. A righty-throwing first baseman doesn’t use his proper thumb within the subject all that usually, however 5 out of 5 medical doctors advocate hitting the showers if you tear a ligament.

Indeed, a torn ligament was the official analysis, and it’ll require surgical procedure to repair. The Phillies have but to supply an official timeline for Hall’s return, however it could possibly be a number of months earlier than he steps again on the sphere. Mike Trout wanted surgical procedure to restore a torn ligament in his thumb in 2017 and missed about six weeks. Kevin Kiermaier had an identical process the next yr and missed 9. Travis d’Arnaud misplaced greater than three months after such a surgical procedure in 2021. Clearly, restoration time depends upon the person participant and the extent of the damage; we should always hear extra about Hall within the coming weeks.

Phillies supervisor Rob Thomson has already revealed his plan to exchange Hall within the lineup. Initially, he was going to present the newly called-up Kody Clemens the majority of the enjoying time towards right-handed beginning pitchers; when a southpaw took the mound, Alec Bohm would slide over to first and Edmundo Sosa would cowl third. But Thomson appears to have already modified his thoughts, deciding that Bohm will transfer to first base completely and Sosa will turn into the on a regular basis third baseman.

While this association is disappointing for Clemens, it makes considerably extra sense. Sosa has struggled towards same-handed pitching in his profession, however Clemens has but to show he can hit righties any higher. At least with Sosa, the Phillies get a extra skilled main leaguer and an elite defensive third baseman:

While it will likely be Sosa (and infrequently Clemens) changing Hall within the lineup, the Phillies want their different hitters to rise to the event and change his offensive manufacturing. Neither Sosa nor Clemens is a risk on the plate: According to our Depth Charts, each are projected to complete with an 89 wRC+, a considerable drop-off from Hall’s projected 104 wRC+. Thankfully for Philadelphia, the fellows who have to step up are off to a reasonably good begin:

If Stott, Bohm, Marsh, and Castellanos succeed, the Phillies’ offense can be simply wonderful for the subsequent few months; when Hall and Bryce Harper return, the Phils could have one of many deepest lineups in baseball, even with out Hoskins. Unfortunately, that’s a reasonably big “if”:

Of these 4 hitters, solely Bohm has a BABIP anyplace near sustainable. Similarly, he’s the one one with an xwOBA above the twenty fifth percentile. Stott is making a ton of contact, however not sufficient arduous contact. His hard-hit price ranks within the eleventh percentile, and he has but to barrel a ball this season. Most of his hits have been groundballs that discovered a niche, and he has walked solely as soon as in 36 PA. Meanwhile, Castellanos has struck out in 16 of his 37 journeys to the plate. He is swinging far lower than regular, however his swinging-strike price is larger than ever, and sliders have continued to trigger him grief.

Marsh has seven extra-base hits in 23 PA, which is undeniably spectacular. But he’s earned extra of these hits together with his legs than his bat: His common launch angle and hard-hit price are down, and his .762 slugging proportion isn’t going to final. On the brilliant aspect, he’s chasing much less and whiffing much less, however that solely means a lot when his high quality of contact is worse. Moreover, he has been dreadful on the bases regardless of his pace, having already run into a number of TOOTBLANs in only a handful of video games performed:

The season is younger, and there may be loads of time for Stott and Marsh to interrupt out and Castellanos to bounce again, however they’ve but to point out indicators of creating the enhancements they should make so as to take action. That means the onus can be on the established hitters to provide from the highest of the lineup. Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto have been all offered with their Silver Slugger trophies this weekend, and the Phillies are relying on them to hit like Silver Sluggers once more. They don’t actually have a alternative (until Stott, Marsh, and Castellanos step up). The backside of the order is already a black gap with the platoon of Josh Harrison and Jake Cave and the occasional presence of Cristian Pache. This lineup nonetheless has some thump, however it thins out shortly after that.

On that account, Philadelphia must get a lift from its pitching employees. Pitching was the group’s power getting into the season, with each the rotation and the bullpen rating fifth in our Positional Power Rankings. Yet as issues stand, the Phillies’ employees is twentieth in WAR; the starters are 14th, and the bullpen twenty sixth.

Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler haven’t fairly been themselves, and the Phillies have misplaced three of their 4 begins. Those two could make an enormous distinction by returning to ace type, and Ranger Suárez will assist as soon as he will get off the injured record. His return will bolster the bullpen, too, permitting Matt Strahm to transition out of the rotation and into a protracted aid position. But what the ‘pen wants most is best from Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, and Craig Kimbrel, all of whom have been disastrous so far.

Losing Hall for a number of months will make the Phillies a worse baseball group; the offensive drop-off from him to Sosa is steep. That mentioned, Philadelphia’s protection can be stronger with Sosa at third, mitigating the offensive downturn. Moreover, this group was constructed round pitching, and the pitching employees can nonetheless carry it to October.

After shedding their long-time first baseman per week earlier than Opening Day and getting off to a horrible begin of their first 9 video games, the Phillies are in a little bit of a gap. Their playoff odds have fallen to 37.7%, and our projections now have them ending fifth within the Wild Card race. They nonetheless have 153 video games to dig their approach out, however with out Hall, the problem is much more daunting, and the margin for error is that a lot slimmer.