The Rays Are Steamrolling Opponents at a File Clip

Friday evening’s recreation at Tropicana Field featured a uncommon sight: the Rays trailing a workforce by a 1–0 margin. It was a blink-and-you-missed it second, with a run within the high of the second inning placing Tampa Bay behind for the primary time since Tuesday evening, and simply the second time all season. But it didn’t final lengthy: on the primary pitch of the second inning, Harold Ramirez hit a Ken Waldichuk providing for a solo homer into the precise subject nook, kicking off a six-run inning that additionally featured a grand slam by Isaac Paredes. The Rays by no means regarded again, beating the A’s, 9–5, on Friday after which 11–0 on each Saturday and Sunday to run their report to 9–0.

It’s an understatement to say that the Rays are off to the perfect begin in franchise historical past (their earlier report for season-opening wins was three) or the perfect of any workforce this 12 months. By consecutive victories to open a season, they’re off to the perfect begin in 20 years, and by run differential, they’re performing some issues not seen within the majors for the reason that late nineteenth century — and a few by no means seen earlier than.

For starters, the Rays are the primary workforce for the reason that 2003 Royals to win their first 9 video games and the thirteenth in AL/NL historical past since 1901:

Six of the earlier 12 groups to begin that sizzling made the playoffs, two earlier than division play started in 1969 and 4 extra earlier than the Wild Card period started in ’95; three went on to win the World Series. Those 12 groups mixed for a .570 profitable share, which equates to about 93 wins over a 162-game season. All of them completed with information of not less than .500, although one simply barely; just one workforce went on to win not less than 100 video games, although the 1955 Dodgers’ clip would extrapolate to 102 wins over a 162-game schedule.

Of these 12 groups, six prolonged their profitable streaks even additional. The 1955 Dodgers, ’62 Pirates, and ’66 Cleveland groups every reached 10 straight wins earlier than shedding, the ’81 A’s 11 straight, and each the ’82 Braves and ’87 Brewers 13 straight.

If the Rays have loads of firm by way of going undefeated, their run differential is one thing else. They’ve outscored the opposition 75–18 — that’s a mean of 8–2 — for a +57 run differential that’s by far the most important by 9 video games of any workforce since 1901, way back to Baseball Reference’s Stathead goes:

Tampa’s 75 runs scored by 9 video games is merely tied for sixth, properly behind the 1932 Yankees’ 84, and the 18 runs allowed barely crack the highest 25; 5 groups allowed 13 runs by their first 9 video games, most not too long ago the 2004 Marlins.

Where the Rays have separated themselves from the pack past their cumulative run differential is that they’ve received each considered one of their video games by not less than 4 runs. No different workforce has finished that greater than 4 instances in a row to begin the season, and solely 4 others have finished so at any level within the season for the reason that begin of the twentieth century:

most consecutive wins, all by 4+ runs:

1884 St. Louis Maroons: 13
1876 White Stockings: 11
1939 Yankees: 10
1938 Yankees: 9
1931 Senators: 9
1911 Pirates: 9
1890 Louisville Colonels: 9
2023 Rays: 8 ** energetic streak
1890 Phillies: 8
1883 White Stockings: 8

h/t @EliasSports

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) April 8, 2023

Not since 1884 has a workforce gathered a +50 run differential or higher by 9 video games:

THE RAYS’ +57 RUN DIFF IS THE HIGHEST IN A TEAM’S 1ST 9 GAMES SINCE 1900

OVERALL LIST:

highest run diff in 1st 9 video games of season, MLB historical past:

1884 St. Louis Maroons: +78
1884 New York Gothams: +63
2023 Rays: +57
1882 Providence Grays: +54
1876 Hartfords of Brooklyn: +51

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) April 9, 2023

On each Saturday and Sunday, the Rays beat the A’s 11–0, marking simply the third time since 1901 that an AL or NL workforce has received back-to-back shutouts by 11 runs or extra. The Tigers did it in each ends of a doubleheader in opposition to the Browns on September 22, 1936, and the Orioles did it in opposition to Cleveland on June 28 and 29, 2019.

Now, it’s truthful to level out that the Rays haven’t precisely confronted high-caliber competitors. The three groups they’ve performed — the Tigers, Nationals, and A’s — misplaced 96, 107, and 102 video games final 12 months, respectively, and all had been forecast to lose not less than 90 video games on this 12 months’s preseason Playoff Odds. But if we’re going to nitpick the Rays, it must be identified that the 1884 Maroons dominated the Union Association in its solely season of existence, going 94–19, profitable the pennant by 21 video games, and getting absorbed by the National League when the circuit disbanded that winter. More not too long ago, that 1999 Cleveland workforce that ranks second within the fashionable rankings opened in opposition to two groups that may go on to lose 97 video games and one other 92 video games. The two groups tied for third fattened up on weak groups as properly, with the ’05 Giants taking part in sequence in opposition to groups that may lose 103 and 104 video games, and the 2016 Cubs going through two groups that may lose not less than 93 video games. And so on.

The Rays weren’t imagined to be this good — no person is that this good — however it does really feel as if they had been ignored on the outset of the season. Our preseason Playoff Odds forecast them for 86 wins, with a 19.6% probability of profitable the AL East and a 61.3% probability of constructing the playoffs, but in our preseason Staff Predictions, only one out of 27 individuals picked them to win the division, in comparison with six for the Yankees (who had 42.7% odds) and 19 for the Blue Jays (29.4% odds); one individual picked the Orioles as properly. As I identified final week, this was the one division the place our consensus decide went in opposition to our odds. Now the Rays are as much as a 46% probability of profitable the division (with a 92-win projection), with the Yankees (6–3) at 31.2% and the Blue Jays (6–4) at 19.4%.

As their per-game scoring averages counsel, the Rays have been dominant on each side of the ball. Their .289 batting common leads the AL, and their .379 on-base share, .588 slugging share, 171 wRC+, and 24 homers all lead the majors; no different workforce has greater than 18 homers. Of the 13 gamers to return to bat for them to this point, all however catchers Francisco Mejía and Christian Bethancourt have a wRC+ of 100 or higher, and 5 regulars have a 200 wRC+ or higher: Wander Franco at 222 (.351/.400/.757), Randy Arozarena at 213 (.371/.463/.629), Josh Lowe at 209 (.364/.417/.682), and Luke Raley and Ramirez each at 205 (.235/.391/.765 for the previous, .286/.348/.762 for the latter). Franco is in a five-way tie for the league lead in homers with 4 and is tied with Aaron Judge for fourth in wRC+; the shortstop can also be fourth in SLG, one level behind Judge. Arozarena is eighth in wRC+, ninth in OBP, and tenth in SLG. None of the others have sufficient plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, however Brandon Lowe, whose grand slam on Sunday off James Kaprielian blew the sport open, is eleventh in wRC+ at 198 and eighth in OBP at .464.

Franco and Arozarena are the most important and most electrifying gamers on this workforce. The former, who simply turned 22 on March 1, performed in his 162nd profession recreation on Sunday; he’s gathered 17 homers, 12 steals, and 5.5 WAR in that span, with a 127 wRC+ (.286/.341/.457). We’re not but to the purpose of batted ball stats stabilizing, however it nonetheless bears noting that he’s barreled six balls for an 18.8% fee, almost 4 instances his 4.8% fee (25 whole barrels) from 2021–22, and his common exit velocity is up 2.8 mph to 90.5 mph.

Arozarena, contemporary off a star flip for Mexico within the World Baseball Classic, is considered one of six gamers to gather a success in each recreation to date this season, together with José Abreu and José Ramírez (each with 10 video games), and Nolan Arenado, Bryan Reynolds, Bryson Stott, and Jordan Walker (all with 9 video games).

It probably owes one thing to the caliber of pitching they’re going through, however the Rays have 5 gamers who rank among the many majors’ high 25 in xSLG: Raley (.791, albeit on simply 12 BIP, which is sufficient to qualify for the Statcast leaderboard), Brandon Lowe (.765), Franco (.724), Jose Siri (.675, and who simply landed on the injured listing with a proper hamstring pressure he suffered whereas making a catch on the wall on Friday evening), and Arozarena (.672).

As for the pitching, Rays starters have the majors’ lowest ERA (1.90), FIP (1.97), and the second-lowest Okay-BB% (24.7%); notably, they’ve additionally bought the bottom dwelling run fee (0.17 per 9) and highest groundball fee (51.2%) as properly, all of which is to say that they’re doing issues that maintain them out of bother. And they’ve finished this all with out Tyler Glasnow, who started the 12 months on the injured listing because of a strained indirect that can in all probability price him the entire first month of the season.

Thus far, all however two Rays starters have gone not less than six innings in every flip, the exceptions being fifth starter Josh Fleming, who was chased after permitting 10 hits and 5 runs in three innings on Tuesday (the opposite recreation the place the Rays needed to come from behind), and Zach Eflin, who went solely 5 innings on April 1. Five instances a Rays starter has left with a shutout intact, and as soon as with a no-hitter intact: Jeffrey Springs tossed six hitless innings and struck out 12 Tigers on April 2. On Saturday, he allowed three hits in seven shutout innings, placing out seven and strolling three — simply the second time a Rays starter walked a number of hitters, by the way in which — and on Sunday Drew Rasmussen allowed only one hit in seven innings, placing out eight. The two have but to permit a run and have yielded simply three hits in 13 innings.

Meanwhile, the bullpen — a usually Rays-flavored patchwork of castoffs and guys getting back from accidents, solely few of whom have distinctive stuff — has put up a 1.86 ERA in 29 innings, although that’s much less the product of dominance than it’s a .195 BABIP offsetting a 4.67 FIP. Rays relievers have struck out simply 16.4% of all hitters, the majors’ third-lowest fee. If that’s unremarkable, what’s outstanding is how untested the unit is: Rays relievers have but to come across a single save alternative to this point, even a kind of seventh-inning ones that solely get seen once they’re blown. The unit’s common leverage index (pLI) is simply 0.45, the majors’ second-lowest, and of the person relievers’ 24 appearances, solely two started with a recreation leverage (gmLI) of 1.0 or larger, one by Jason Adam on April 3 and the opposite by Jalen Beeks the subsequent evening.

The Rays’ schedule is about to toughen up. Their remaining power of schedule (.508) is tied for second within the AL, they usually kick that off by internet hosting the Red Sox for 4 video games after which going through the Blue Jays for 3 in Toronto. Along with three video games in Cincinnati and 7 in opposition to the White Sox, they’ve additionally bought a three-game set in opposition to the Astros this month. Sooner or later, anyone — maybe even a kind of lesser groups — goes to beat them and finish this ridiculous streak, however already they’ve established that they’re a workforce that may’t be ignored, and that we must always anticipate them to be within the thick of the AL East race.