WASHINGTON — Before the Cardinals rallied for an 8-6 victory over the Nationals on Monday at Nationals Park, they made three above-average defensive performs that stored the sport from spiraling away.
In the primary inning, Lars Nootbaar uncorked a one-hop help from proper subject to throw out Corey Dickerson at third to finish Washington’s three-run body. The subsequent inning, Brendan Donovan’s help from left acquired Luis García at second. A batter later, Tommy Edman laid out to take successful away from Jeimer Candelario in shallow heart, ending what might have became a nightmare first two innings for starter Jack Flaherty had these performs not been made.
Though the Cardinals had been down by 5 at that time, the performs loomed massive as soon as Flaherty settled in and St. Louis stormed again, utilizing back-to-back homers from Donovan and Paul Goldschmidt within the fifth inning to attain eight runs and accumulate its third straight win. They had been wholesome indicators for a group that’s struggled partially as a result of it ranks among the many Majors’ worst defensive models (-8 Outs Above Average per Statcast, twenty third in MLB coming into Monday), particularly within the outfield (-7 OOA, tied for twenty seventh).
“If you look at our overall play, the outfield needed to be tightened up,” supervisor Oliver Marmol mentioned. “The higher we play on the market with the blokes we’ve got, we’re going to provide ourselves a shot.”
The Cardinals take into account rectifying that challenge a key to turning their season round, and Nootbaar’s return from the injured record Monday offers them seven outfielders (or at the very least gamers able to taking part in outfield) on the lively roster. That contains Edman, who moved from brief to heart not too long ago with Nootbaar sidelined.
All of this has Marmol crunching eventualities currently making an attempt to reply the query: What is the Cardinals’ greatest defensive alignment?
Let’s attempt to break it down utilizing Statcast. What do the numbers say?
1. Who is the perfect defensive heart fielder?
It’s shut. Among Cardinals with at the very least 10 fielding alternatives in heart, Edman and Dylan Carlson each lead with 2 OAA coming into Monday. If you’re searching for tiebreakers, Carlson rated as a plus defender there (+4 OAA) final season. However, Edman holds a slight lead this yr in success price added, which measures defensive outcomes towards anticipated outcomes based mostly on problem.
Verdict: Take your choose: Carlson or Edman. In a vacuum, the Cards can’t go fallacious with both.
2. Who are the perfect defenders on the corners?
Among Cardinals with at the very least 10 fielding alternatives in left, Donovan (0 OAA) charges as the perfect defender, significantly with Tyler O’Neill out by way of at the very least mid-August with a decrease again pressure. In proper subject, Carlson, Donovan and Nootbaar all price equally in OOA. Nootbaar will get the slight edge by way of success price added, and Carlson has the stronger arm, however solely barely. Jordan Walker’s arm charges higher than any Cards outfielder, however he’s additionally the group’s weakest general defender.
Verdict: The greatest alignment seems to be like Donovan in left and both Carlson or Nootbaar in proper.
3. Who is the perfect defensive shortstop?
Edman rated because the Majors’ fourth-best defensive shortstop in 2022 (11 OOA), however he charges solely common (0 OAA) on the place to this point this season. Meanwhile, Paul DeJong is on tempo to have the perfect defensive yr of his profession on the place; at 4 OOA by way of 47 video games, he’s amassed almost the identical defensive worth (5 OAA) he did in 75 video games at shortstop in ‘22.
Verdict: Right now, clearly DeJong.
4. Where is Edman the higher defender?
Right now, the numbers say heart subject is Edman’s greatest place. He’s additionally arguably the Cardinals’ greatest defender in heart (see above).
5. Knowing this, the place is Edman’s protection extra priceless?
This is partially about Edman, partially about alternative price. Starting Edman in heart permits the Cardinals to get DeJong’s plus defensive worth at brief. With Nootbaar again, the associated fee might be Carlson, who is kind of equal defensively to Edman in heart.
The various? Edman at brief, Carlson in heart and DeJong’s plus defensive worth on the bench. But if Edman is a worse defender at brief this season and equal to Carlson in heart, that is suboptimal for the Cardinals. It’s basically leaving outs on the sector.
Verdict: Probably heart subject.
6. So, who will get squeezed?
The doubtless candidate is Carlson, although you possibly can make the argument that he’s both the group’s prime defender or near it at each heart and proper.
Now, Marmol considers greater than defensive metrics when writing out his each day lineup card. Indeed, a few of these selections can be pushed by offense, matchups, relaxation and different components.
For occasion, the Cardinals don’t wish to flip Walker into an on a regular basis DH so early in his profession, so he’ll want common outfield reps. Donovan and Edman may play second, opening up totally different permutations, and St. Louis has outfielder Alec Burleson within the combine as properly.
But if the Cardinals are strictly placing their greatest protection on the market, it seems to be like that’s DeJong at brief, Edman in heart, Donovan in left and Nootbaar in proper — at the very least proper now.
Content Source: www.mlb.com