Jorge Soler has at all times had massive energy potential. His energy was his carrying instrument as a prospect, and he homered in his first massive league plate look. Unfortunately, he’s had bother profiting from his power all through his profession. For years, Soler was an “if he can put it all together” sort of participant. His uncooked energy was engaging, however accidents and inconsistency saved getting in the best way. From 2014 to ’18, he hit simply 38 dwelling runs in 307 video games, a tempo of 20 per 162.
Finally, in 2019, all the things clicked. The 6-foot-4 slugger performed all 162 video games, walloping an AL-leading 48 dwelling runs. He completed fifth within the league in slugging, third in remoted energy, and thirteenth in wRC+. His wRC+ went up each month, and no participant in baseball hit for extra energy over the ultimate two months of the season. He misplaced the Silver Slugger at DH to an ageless Nelson Cruz, however all the identical, Soler was lastly residing as much as the hype. There was even speak of the Royals signing him to a long-term deal.
But that extension by no means got here, and Soler’s efficiency over the remainder of his Royals tenure dashed any desires he may need had of a profitable long-term contract. In 2020, his outdated issues got here again to hang-out him. He didn’t profit from his energy, hitting solely eight dwelling runs in 43 video games, and accidents saved him off the sector for a number of weeks in September. The following season began out even worse; in 95 video games with Kansas City, he hit 13 dwelling runs and posted a feeble 77 wRC+. At the commerce deadline, the previous dwelling run king was despatched to Atlanta for pennies on the greenback.
What occurred subsequent is the stuff of legend, a minimum of within the Atlanta metropolitan space. Soler crushed 14 homers in 54 video games, tied for eighth within the National League over the ultimate two months of the season. He stayed scorching by means of October, hitting one other three dwelling runs and incomes World Series MVP honors. He wasn’t fairly as dominant as he regarded within the second half of 2019, however he re-established himself as a reliable energy bat. It was sufficient to internet him a three-year, $36 million contract with the Marlins that winter.
Sadly, his 2022 marketing campaign was an all-too-familiar story. Yet once more, it turned out Soler had not, the truth is, “finally put it all together.” He managed solely 13 dwelling runs and a 98 wRC+ in 72 video games earlier than accidents ended his season in mid-July. It appeared as if Soler was cursed to flirt with greatness time and again however by no means fairly stay as much as his potential, a punishment nearly Sisyphean in nature. It makes you surprise what he did to anger the baseball deities within the first place— steal fireplace for mankind? Lead a Titan riot? Hit a house run on a 3–0 pitch?
Regardless, right here we’re, closing in on the midway mark of the 2023 season, and Soler appears like a demigod as soon as once more. We’re pressured to query if that is simply one other flash of brilliance or if he has overcome his curse in the end. He is on tempo for 47 dwelling runs, one fewer than his 2019 whole however in a decrease energy surroundings. He’s placing out lower than normal and strolling greater than ever, and his 149 wRC+ ranks tenth in baseball and sixth within the National League. Not solely is he placing collectively the very best efficiency of his profession, however he’s additionally been some of the harmful hitters within the recreation:
There’s no query that Soler’s efficiency is actual; you possibly can’t BABIP your strategy to 21 dwelling runs in 69 video games. His barrel price, xwOBA, and xwOBAcon all rank within the prime 5% of the league, simply as they did in 2019. He can also be hitting extra balls within the air this yr, which is certainly a optimistic growth. Groundballs aren’t of a lot use for a participant like Soler, so his 0.72 GB/FB ratio is sweet to see. Furthermore, he has been extra selective on the plate this season, and his persistence is contributing to his success. This is the suitable strategy for a participant like Soler, who generates most of his manufacturing with dwelling runs and free passes. You can’t stroll when you’re swinging the bat, and also you’re solely going to hit dingers when you’re swinging on the proper pitches.
Long story quick, Soler has been an incredible hitter this yr, and he’s doing precisely what he ought to do to stay an incredible hitter: drawing his walks, limiting strikeouts, and barreling up the baseball. That being mentioned, there is one thing barely off about his high quality of contact numbers. His most exit velocity ranks among the many greatest within the recreation, however his common exit velocity is his lowest since 2018; it’s nearer to common than elite. The scenario is analogous along with his barrel and hard-hit charges; he barrels the ball with the very best of them, however his hard-hit price is extra middle-of-the-pack. I don’t imply to counsel it is a drawback, as a result of Soler continues to be doing what he must do to succeed, but it surely’s definitely unusual. How typically does an influence hitter report fewer hard-hit balls throughout the very best season of his profession?
In 2019, Soler’s common exit velocity and hard-hit price each ranked within the prime 3% of the league. They have been each within the prime 7% the next yr and the highest 21% the yr after that. Yet this yr, his common exit velocity ranks within the sixty fifth percentile and his hard-hit price within the sixty fourth. His hard-hit price is basically the identical because it was final yr, when he completed with a 98 wRC+; the final time his common exit velocity was this low, he was nonetheless only a struggling former prospect.
So what’s happening? Why isn’t top-of-the-line energy hitters within the recreation hitting the ball arduous on a extra constant foundation? For one factor, Soler is making extra contact on pitches exterior the strike zone. His O-Contact% is as much as 59.6%; his profession common coming into the season was 49.1%. Pitches exterior the zone are more durable to crush, so Soler has a a lot decrease exit velocity on pitches put into play from exterior the strike zone. But his common exit velocity is decrease than normal on pitches within the strike zone, too, so this rationalization isn’t enough. It’s additional proof as to why he’s extra profitable when he’s extra selective, but it surely doesn’t clarify why his common exit velocity is so low.
Another idea is that Soler is getting beneath the ball extra typically this season. When a hitter is making an attempt to restrict his groundballs, he’ll inevitably find yourself with extra lazy pop flies as effectively. Indeed, 30.2% of Soler’s batted ball occasions have been categorized as “under” this yr, considerably increased than his profession common. Unsurprisingly, these batted balls have a a lot decrease common exit velocity. But his exit velocity isn’t simply down on low-quality contact; it’s surprisingly low on barrels and strong contact, too. In different phrases, even the pitches he’s seeing and hitting effectively aren’t coming off the bat fairly as arduous.
Ultimately, one of the best ways to grasp Soler’s low exit velocity and hard-hit price is to separate up his season into three chunks. The Marlins’ DH acquired off to a scorching begin over his first 20 video games earlier than falling off the tempo. He had a dreadful 11-game chilly stretch in late April and early May earlier than busting out of his hunch. Ever since, he’s been nigh unstoppable. Over his final 38 video games and counting, Soler leads the NL in dwelling runs, OPS, and wRC+. It’s additionally over his final 38 video games that issues began getting bizarre.
During his first scorching streak, Soler did all the things you’d anticipate from a red-hot energy hitter. From Opening Day by means of April 23, he had a 95.4-mph common exit velocity. His walks have been up, his strikeouts have been down, and he was hitting tons of fly balls. He hit 5 dwelling runs and eight doubles in his first 20 video games. Then, throughout his chilly stretch, he struggled in nearly each respect. From April 24 to May 5, his common exit velocity was a meager 86.8 mph. His plate self-discipline was terrible, and he couldn’t cease hitting the ball on the bottom. He additionally couldn’t get a success to avoid wasting his life; you don’t want to grasp superior analytics to know a 0 wRC+ is atrocious.
When Soler caught fireplace once more, he regained his plate self-discipline and stopped hitting so many groundballs. Yet his excessive exit velocity by no means got here again. Over his final 38 video games, his common exit velocity is 88.3 mph, barely increased than it was throughout his hunch. Despite that, his energy has returned in full power. He has 15 dwelling runs since May 6, and his barrel price is again in elite territory. Soler isn’t crushing each pitch he sees, however when he will get one, he actually will get one. His efficiency on Monday night time in opposition to the Blue Jays is an ideal instance: he demolished a third-inning pitch from José Berríos for a house run however then weakly flew out in every of his subsequent three at-bats:
Indeed, Soler’s magic method is all about profiting from his barrels. And how is he doing that with out added exit velocity? The solely manner he can: elevation. The most vital distinction in Soler’s numbers between his two scorching streaks this season (moreover exit velocity) is launch angle, and particularly, launch angle on barrels. Overall, his common launch angle has truly gone down throughout this newest stretch, however he’s hitting his barrels increased within the air. He has hit almost all of them in or across the candy spot between 24–32 levels — the optimum launch angle for dwelling runs. It’s doable he’s sacrificing a tiny little bit of bat pace in order to regulate the trail of his swing higher. If that’s the truth is his technique, there’s no arguing with the outcomes.
Soler has barreled 18 balls throughout this scorching streak, 14 of which have left the yard. His 1.713 wOBA, 1.523 xwOBA, and a pair of.444 ISO on barrels is nothing wanting ridiculous, and for a three-true-outcomes hitter, it doesn’t actually matter what occurs on the remainder of his batted balls. By maximizing the standard of his barrels, he maximizes his potential as a hitter. His common exit velocity could be down, however his inventory as a slugger has by no means been increased.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com