It Needed to Happen: Cubs Lengthen Ian Happ

If there’s one factor I bear in mind the Cubs of current classic for, it’s profitable the curse-breaking World Series in 2016. What, you had been anticipating one thing else? But if there are *two* issues I bear in mind the Cubs of current classic for, the second is failing to signal their marquee gamers to contract extensions. Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo: all 4 felt like candidates for a contract extension that made them a lifetime Cub, with a jersey retirement ceremony and fawning protection from nationwide media for his or her glowing profession.

Each of these 4 performs for an additional crew now. The Cubs by no means turned that dynamic core right into a second championship, or perhaps a second World Series look. For a crew that had dynastic aspirations, it’s an odd look. To the Cubs’ credit score, it’s additionally a glance they appear intent on altering. After signing Nico Hoerner to a three-year extension, they took care of one other core participant, agreeing to a three-year extension with Ian Happ value $61 million, as Bleacher Nation’s Michael Cerami first reported.

Happ represents a bridge between the 2016 squad that has now largely departed and the modern-day Cubs crew. He debuted in 2017, and whereas he spent most of ’19 within the minors, he’s in any other case been a fixture within the Chicago lineup ever since. He’s additionally been a fixture within the discipline, although not at all times in the identical place. In 2022, nevertheless, he settled into an on a regular basis left discipline position and put up his finest season as knowledgeable.

A fast take a look at Happ’s statline would possibly go away you wanting. He doesn’t hit a ton of dwelling runs or get on base at an unbelievable clip. He doesn’t have a surprisingly low strikeout price for contemporary baseball. He merely does all the pieces properly, with no actual holes in his sport aside from a barely elevated strikeout price, and that provides as much as strong general efficiency even with out something that may blow you away. Here, check out it in percentile kind, as in comparison with all certified hitters:

The humorous factor about these numbers is that Happ’s sport doesn’t really feel middle-of-the-road in any respect. He’s able to monumental top-end energy however till 2022 had paired that intermittent thump with loads of empty swings. His profession swinging-strike price is roughly 14%; he shaved that to 11.8%, and the hits flowed like wine. That’s how one can publish your lowest profession ISO and beat your profession batting line anyway.

That’s to not say that it was a straightforward transition; if everybody might merely make extra contact, they’d. But for Happ, that tradeoff labored wonders. His energy nonetheless performed, and placing out 24% of the time as a substitute of 31% of the time is a large tailwind. That adjustment at all times felt prefer it was in Happ’s vary of outcomes, however seeing him truly do it was spectacular nonetheless.

Happ’s wonderful season got here at a good time for him. He was because of attain free company after this yr, and it’s a notably skinny class for bats. Depending on how you are feeling about Michael Conforto, Teoscar Hernández, and C.J. Cron, Happ may be the perfect hitter obtainable after Shohei Ohtani. Combine that along with his defensive versatility, and he was possible on the high of loads of procuring lists.

The Cubs knew that, they usually additionally aren’t flush with hitting prospects in the meanwhile. Pete Crow-Armstrong would possibly assist out the large league membership quickly, however the remainder of the reinforcements are a methods off nonetheless. As they try to spherical again into rivalry, they’re possible in want of some extra hitters, not a couple of much less; they may hardly afford to take away Happ from their lineup with out discovering a alternative, which as I discussed gained’t be simple to do that winter. Additionally, they wanted to retain some gamers. The continuous revolving door wasn’t search for the crew, and getting a couple of extensions performed is an efficient solution to change that narrative.

That’s one half of the requisite circumstances for an extension. The different half is Happ’s willingness, and he’d made no secret of his views on that matter. “I would love to be a part of the next great Cubs team,” he instructed MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, and that doesn’t go away so much to the creativeness. The two sides wished a deal; all that remained was to determine what deal that was.

Extensions this near free company typically look so much just like the contract a participant would possibly get in free company, and Happ’s deal isn’t any exception. Three years? That sounds affordable, if maybe a bit gentle, for a 29-year-old hitter. Roughly $20 million per yr? That’s about proper for however not nice hitter with marginal defensive worth. Happ is youthful than Rizzo and José Abreu, who each obtained comparable contracts at a much less precious defensive place, however he’s not pretty much as good of a hitter. It’s greater than Mitch Haniger obtained, however Happ looks like a greater guess to place up above-average numbers in bulk enjoying time.

More particularly, right here’s what ZiPS thinks of the subsequent three years of Happ:

That’s a strong complementary hitter, the type that each crew in baseball might discover a place for, a minimum of for 2024 and ’25. For a Chicago crew that has struggled to attain lately, he’s a welcome brick within the offensive basis. Would he have gotten as a lot or extra in free company? I believe it’s possible. Would the Cubs have signed him if they’d a extra sturdy offense and pipeline of hitters developing behind him? I doubt it.

The greater query is what the Cubs are constructing towards. They’ve performed loads of tearing down and rebuilding, however even with Happ of their lineup for the subsequent 4 years, this hardly seems like top-of-the-line offenses within the NL Central, by no means thoughts the majors. Happ, Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki, and Dansby Swanson must do many of the heavy lifting. I can see that occuring, however it hardly appears like a given; all 4 really feel extra like complementary items than offensive linchpins. You could make lineups filled with gamers like Happ and Hoerner work, however you want the lineup to be *full* of them, not full of Eric Hosmer, Tucker Barnhart, and Miles Mastrobuoni on the backside.

The finest time to unravel this drawback was final winter, when Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Aaron Judge had been free brokers. The second-best time to unravel this drawback was the earlier winter. The solely different nice answer could be for the farm system to churn out a string of unheralded however efficient hitters, however that hasn’t began to occur but, and it appears foolish to anticipate that to alter on a dime.

To be honest, I don’t suppose that this specific flaw in Chicago’s crew constructing modifications something concerning the Happ extension. What had been the Cubs going to do, let him go away and attempt to make the offense higher that manner? Like the Cardinals and their pitching pitfall, they discovered themselves in a troublesome state of affairs and made the perfect of it by taking their finest extension candidate and making a deal.

Good occasions will certainly come to Wrigley once more. The crew spends some huge cash and invests in participant growth, they usually’re lastly, belatedly, maintaining their homegrown hitters in-house. This extension is an efficient step in the proper course in terms of doing the straightforward issues to assist construct an offense. There’s nonetheless laborious work forward to complete a crew, however a minimum of the Cubs gained’t be changing inner losses as they attempt to construct towards a greater future.