Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/13/23

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

Alex: Why is Neapolitan ice cream thought of classic now? Am I simply outdated?

Dan Szymborski: It IS kinda old fashioned now

Appa Yip Yip: Obviously it’s April and he solely has 50 PAs, however Daulton Varsho has a 14% stroll fee on this right here younger season. Did he stage up?

Dan Szymborski: Probably to not *this* stage since he’s nonetheless getting off to lots of 0-1 counts, however his plate self-discipline stats have ticked up thus far

YorDaddy: Is Dubon’s enchancment on the plate actual? They say he reduce his fly ball fee after some recommendation from Yordan.

Dan Szymborski: Not to *this* diploma, however he’s at all times been a bit underrated

Matt: Jo Adell… ¯_(ツ)_/¯

Dan Szymborski: Hey, he’s nonetheless simply 24

San Dzymborski: I noticed previous suggestions for these visiting Baltimore in a earlier chat. I wished to throw W.C. Harlan (speakeasy)/Dutch Courage (gin bar), Mount Vernon Marketplace (soju bar and nice meals like Cheezy Mike’s), Abbey Burger Bar, and Mi & Yu Noodle Bar in Fed Hill had among the finest marumen noodles I’ve ever had. Also enjoyable to scooter across the promenade in the summertime. Baltimore is tremendous underrated!

Slapshot: Your “This has been a Mountfortress game” tweet from earlier this week was prime notch content material.  Also, it stays a disgrace that Baltimore created that LF monstrosity, because it seems like Mountcastle was damage by the change greater than anybody else on that group.  Your ideas?

Dan Szymborski: It’s in all probability seemingly

Dan Szymborski: But any park change goes to harm *somebody*

Tom: Will this be the second time in three years the predictions get the winner of the NL West mind-bogglingly fallacious?! (No, however I’d nonetheless like your ideas on the Snakes)

Dan Szymborski: Hey, we picked playoff groups most of hte time!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume Arizona will stick with it

Dan Szymborski: however I SHOULD word that I’ve been speaking up the Diamondbacks all yr

Dan Szymborski: effectively all winter

Tio: Dan, it appears Chaim Bloom constructed an offense that’s Devers, a rookie (Casas), an costly lottery tickey (Yoshida) and an array of utility/bench gamers and “balanced” it with a pitching workers of excessive danger/reasonable reward guys, plus Bello, and a pair #5 starters (Pivetta/Houck/Whitlock) two of which ought to in all probability be of their pen. Is this actually a group that may contend?

Dan Szymborski: It CAN contend, but it surely must roll doubles and land on free parking a few occasions

Dan Szymborski: Though among the discuss this group, you’d nearly assume they have been the Nationals or Rockies, however that was actually at all times a stretch

Billy Beane: Hey Dan, I’ve been an A’s fan my complete life, however I used to be interested by washing my eyes out with bleach as a substitute of watching their video games, do you might have any ideas about which of these is perhaps extra enjoyable?

Dan Szymborski: You know, you’ll be able to watch different video games; it’s not a binary A’s Game/Bleached Eyes determination

Dallas: How do you’re feeling about Jack Suwinski? When he makes contact, his underlying metrics are excellent, however the issue is his whiff fee on pitches within the zone is extraordinarily excessive. Is this fixable?

Dan Szymborski: He’s an fascinating participant, however there are vital holes in his recreation and I count on him to kinda be a very good function participant/stopgap starter kind

Mother’s Brother: Where are you on Kelenic? Will he find yourself an above common hitter this season?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t dare to supply opinions on Kelenic as every little thing I’ve ever stated about him, good or unhealthy, has been fallacious in the other way

Jake McCarthy: April, however actually, did any participant get extra preseason hype for much less of a resume?

Dan Szymborski: Was he actually hyped THAT a lot?

Dan Szymborski: He was legitimately glorious final season, however all of the projection techniques principally noticed him as first rate league-average dude

Dan Szymborski: And Diamondbacks hitters don’t normally get an entire lot of non-stat hype – it’s not essentially the most national-attention group

TomBruno23: So, Nolan Gorman…

Dan Szymborski: I imply, he’s not THIS good, however everybody anticipated he’d hit no less than decently

Dan Szymborski: The drawback was at all times discovering a place for him

jim lefebvre: Is Kelenic good now?
[list-unchecked]Yes[/list-unchecked]
[list-unchecked]Of course[/list-unchecked]
[list-unchecked]Yes, and you may count on up and to the precise to any extent further.[/list-unchecked]

Dan Szymborski:

GBS42: Grayson Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson have began their MLB careers poorly, however 9.1 IP and 34 AB are near nothing, proper?

Dan Szymborski: Umm, about Henderson’s profession begin…

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Grayson’s final begin was fairly unhealthy although

Dan Szymborski: Because, let’s be sincere, he was principally having it in AAA

ZipZip: Public Service AnnouncementI simply wish to warn everyone that I’ve Rostered, Aaron Nola this yr… So that clearly means he’ll go 10-12 with a 4.00 ERA, and as soon as once more will underperform his anticipated metrics in each method.

David: Do you employ any programming languages for ZiPS or is it simply Excel?

Dan Szymborski: There’s some visible primary concerned

Dan Szymborski: With sufficient third-party add-ons, I’ve gotten Statistica out of the combination

Dan Szymborski: Which streamlines it significantly

Ralph: Feeling good in regards to the Gleyber “breakout” choose?

Dan Szymborski: After final season’s debacle, I’m not feeling good about any breakout/bust choose till November

Dan Szymborski:

Mets – Mauricio: Think Ronny Mauricio will get a shot this yr?   I’m pondering he’s destined for a deadline commerce since he’s nonetheless at SS in AAA.  Afraid he finally ends up someplace else and outperforms the others. (nonetheless PO’ed over Amos Otis).

Dan Szymborski: I think he finally ends up on naother group

Tacoby Bellsbury: What has been the least fascinating improvement to you thus far within the 2023 season?

Dan Szymborski: Generally talking, the OH NO IS TEAM THAT IS OBVIOUSLY GOOD DONE BECAUSE THEY’RE 5-7? crap

Alex: The Atlanta Braves have a very good group however a extremely shaky beginning rotation. In the meantime, they sort of have to stream a bunch of Fifth-Sixth starter varieties whereas they’re ready for a) Max Fried to get wholesome and b) somebody to emerge as a roughly dependable fifth choice. Their farm system is quite famously naked at this level, past Quad-A guys like Elder, Shuster, and Dodd. How ought to an actual, non-fantasy group deal with this type of back-end revolving door?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume they’re essentially not doing it the perfect method, given the information on the bottom

Dan Szymborski: Try to catch lightning in a bottle

Dan Szymborski: however don’t stand on the sting of a constructing attempting to catch it

Jack: Scott Barlow has seemed rubbish this yr – appears the Royals blew it by not buying and selling him final deadline. SwStr is down, Ks and BBs headed in reverse instructions… any signal of hope?

Dan Szymborski: He seemed like rubbish in opposition to the Rangers however I feel it’s too quickly for a reliever to be THAT anxious except he’s gone full Wohlers

Dan Szymborski: But the Royals in all probability ought to have traded him after 2021

Dan Szymborski: Decline in league offense and BABIP increase kinda hit the truth that he was worse in 2022 than 2021 by a very good margin

Guest: what do you consider dean kremer’s begin to his season

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is gonna have some disgrace to do!

Colton: Have you ever seen a extra fast decline in manufacturing from a participant than Bellinger or Baez?

Dan Szymborski: Bellinger is WAY up there

Dan Szymborski: I’m not counting guys that died or have been injured after all

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t I do a Bellinger piece with steep dropoffs?

leland: have you ever ever used the Marmol Strategy and what do you consider Matt Brash/ Honeywell as SP sv+hld choices

Dan Szymborski: I don’t are inclined to go for the gimmicky methods because it makes it much less enjoyable for me

Dan Szymborski: And lukewarm

Billiam: Yordan and Dubon, Attorneys at Law

Alex: Even adjusting for early-season pattern measurement, Orlando Arcia appears to have gone from “cromulent backup” to “cromulent starter.” He’s solely 28 and was a super-hot prospect in his day. How a lot of the development appears legit?

Dan Szymborski: I’m torn – he had a LOT of mediocrity

Dan Szymborski: But contemplating ZiPS liked him as a prospect, I’ve to have SOME loyalty to my creation

Liz: His plate self-discipline has been precisely as marketed, however thus far it looks like Yoshida is hitting all of his batted balls on the bottom. Is that only a small pattern measurement impact or one thing that’s in line with a NPB hitter adjusting to MLB?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t truly studied GB/FB adjustments in that regard from NPB to MLB

Dan Szymborski: Mainly as a result of I don’t have THAT knowledge for NPB

Tampa Bay Slays: I do know it’s small pattern measurement, however let’s name a spade a spade. 12-0 is sort of spectacular irrespective of which method you slice it (even when the groups they beat aren’t spectacular). This is enjoyable to observe! Who knew boring workmanlike Tampa was going to drag this one out

Travis: Might be content material for this elsewhere, however which of the Reds “big three” starters is ZIPS most bullish about long run?

Dan Szymborski: Greene

Guest: compulsory “in the actual rules free parking doesn’t earn anything” pedantry

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, however EVERYONE performs with these guidelines

Dan Szymborski: You ought to have seen our ruleset

Dan Szymborski: In my early 20s, we performed actual cash monopoly

Dan Szymborski: (Basically, you divide all the financial institution by the variety of gamers, put that amount of money into the pot,a nd on the the top of the timed recreation, everybody retains their cash and splits the financial institution evenly

Dan Szymborski: We allowed very advanced contracts

Dan Szymborski: Like you have been allowed to purchase non-competes for different unsold properties, pre-negotiate resort visits, and many others.

Dan Szymborski: And you have been allowed to mortgage different individuals cash with an agreed upon rate of interest to be paid each time you handed go

Dan Szymborski: With properties as collateral

J: Giolito’s optimism about Giolito a pair years again, whereas not so terribly off due to his 2021, by no means actually panned out. Do you assume that analysis purchased in too arduous too early, or is that this merely like a twentieth percentile end result or so?

Dan Szymborski: He was REALLY good when he wsa actually good although

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like lots of the stuff the Sox have completed, however I don’t assume they’ve completed something inr egards to him

Dan Szymborski: And he had three actually stable years

Smarty: Hey Dan, do you do a zips 600 projection set?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t, however I may

Planet Dust: Dan I simply took a deer tick off me and am debating the prophylactic antibiotic. There are professionals and cons. Right I’m leaning towards no as a result of I don’t assume the tick was on for twenty-four hours and I’ve been working arduous on my intestine well being. May change my thoughts by the top of the chat. My query is–we’re all seeing how the video games are totally different on TV with the brand new guidelines. For those that’ve attended in particular person, how do you’re feeling in regards to the new pacing and many others.?

Dan Szymborski: You’re in hassle if you happen to’re getting well being and wellness recommendation from me

Dan Szymborski: I’m the one who has no feeling in most of his proper pinky toe as a result of I made a gash from the toe all the best way right down to my heel, and simply tied it up with a sock tourniquet and went about my enterprise

Dan Szymborski: My sister, who IS a medical skilled, was livid as a result of when she noticed it after it was closed up stated I in all probability wanted a few dozen stitches

Dan Szymborski: As a basic coverage, I don’t like antibiotics as as precautionary measure

Dan Szymborski: I’d say no

Billiam: Duvall query… Do I let him sit on my bench for eight weeks till he returns, or drop him for Nootbaar? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: I’d drop him for Nootbaar, although I’d hope another person within the league would provide you with one thing if THEY wish to try this

Dan Szymborski: I imply it’s friggin Adam Duvall

Scuffy Mcgee: Outman for rookie of the yr over Walker..inform me I’m Bananas

Dan Szymborski: At the top of the yr, in all probability not

Dan Szymborski: however Outman could be the plain ROY if the season edned now

YorDaddy: Should my favourite group’s star participant’s daughter scream a blood curling scream earlier than each pitch of the opponent?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Smarty: Ha, your HTML doesn’t work!!!!

Guest: Will the Rays go 25-0?

Dan Szymborski: No

Jefferson: Is Tj Friedl now the perfect participant in Cincinnati?

Dan Szymborski: Their finest participant might be a pitcher

Dan Szymborski: and if not, It’s frigging Friedl

Insert Witty Name Here: When was the final time you stepped into the pace pitch machine on the ball park? And what did it register?

Dan Szymborski: Aberdeen Ironbirds recreation about 15 years in the past. And it was right down to 65 then.

Dan Szymborski: I by within the low 70s as a young person

Eric: Vinnie P, what a hitter. BWJ and MJ Melendez appear to be barely warming up as effectively. Are these a 3 you’ll be able to confidently construct a aggressive franchise round (a la Cain, Hosmer, Moose)

Dan Szymborski: I feel so

Dan Szymborski: But I query the Royals competence

jim lefebvre: When will ZiPS merge with “Szymage” AI to indicate Pixar rendered participant projections?

Dan Szymborski: we’re nonetheless aways off

Dan Szymborski: I DID ask the AI for a photograph of the FanGraphs workers.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I additionally requested it for a picture of FanGraphs, which it actually didn’t perceive

Dan Szymborski:

Nolan Jones: Do I get AB’s and might I hit?

Dan Szymborski: No, sure

Markakis: I simply keep in mind all that 3000 hit discuss and was stunned to see after I checked simply now that he in the end didn’t get to 2400. Then once more he ended up being completed at age 36

Kevin: You are understandably essential of how the Rockies strategy many issues. Is that primarily based fully by yourself observations, or do you additionally get insights from others who work in MLB organizations?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a mixture of it

Dan Szymborski: I do discuss to a number of individuals, and whereas I attempt to be goal, it’s arduous to be actually 100% goal irrespective of how arduous you attempt to squash these biases

Guest: Here are the components of my stew: chuck roast; chile peppers; olive oil; rooster inventory; cinamon; nutmeg; salt and pepper. Is it chili?

Dan Szymborski: As lengthy because it’s actually pepper-forward!

Bellinger: HOW IS HE ONLY 27

Guest: second half: if I do in actual fact have chili, then earlier than I take pleasure in a bowl add shredded cheddar, mexican crema, and avocadoes to the bowl, is it nonetheless chili?

Dan Szymborski: Weirdly accompanied chili!

Marmol Strategy: is that once you publicly chastise your gamers?

Chip: Is Franchy Cordero a Hall of Famer now?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Dan Szymborski: I’m completely happy to see it although, he’s at all times been somebody individuals have been inquisitive about however he at all times gave the impression to be injured

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: In the precise Uno guidelines, you play to 500 factors

Floyd: How would you rank these hitters for ROS:
Torkelson

Dan Szymborski: Torkelson

Mando: Chaim Bloom spent $216 million and all he bought was final yr’s group once more. Change my thoughts, sir.

Dan Szymborski: You’re not fallacious

Re: Monopoly: This seems like Dungeon’s and Dragons: Capitalism Edition. The solely right rule set

Patrix: My spouse cuts half a banana off of the bunch each morning, and leaves the opposite half hanging there till the following day. Am I married to a psycho?

Dan Szymborski: Could be a sociopath

Appa Yip Yip: I feel it’s value stating that Monopoly, like Risk, is a god terrible recreation that must be consigned to the abyss and by no means spoken of once more.

Guest: Can the Rangers keep above .500 with out Seager

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

A-Rod’s Bunting Fever Dream: How unhealthy does a participant have to be for the MLBPA to not combat them being reduce from a group? Is Marcell Ozuna at that stage but? Could Atlanta put out an 8-man lineup as a substitute of continuous to trot him on the market for an aggressive one handed swing lineout?

Dan Szymborski: They ought to at all times pursue issues vigorously, as is their responsibility

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what the grievance could be if Ozuna was launched. He nonetheless will get paid

Dan Szymborski: But no, you’re not alleged to DEMOTE gamers for non-playing causes

Kyle: Have you ever had a dream about ZiPS? If so, what was it?

Dan Szymborski: Not that I keep in mind.

Dan Szymborski: I can verify my log

Dan Szymborski: Only a single point out that I recorded

Dan Szymborski: And it was solely an ancillary point out

Dan Szymborski: I used to be projecting Justin Verlander to retire with 260 wins when a spaceship crashed into ESPN headquarters

Joey Baggadonuts: Is Kyle Manzardo finest described as Italian Brunch, Italian Mid-Morning Snack, or Italian Shovel A Donut In Your Face While Dodging Rush Hour Traffic On Your Commute To The Office?

Dan Szymborski: I like Italian Brunch

Dijon: the place did you go to high school dan?

Dan Szymborski: Towson High then Loyola

JonWeisman: Your voice slays me.

Dan Szymborski: Is there a joke I don’t get?

Guest: Why do you retain a log? Are you into lucid dreaming?

Dan Szymborski: I hold a laptop computer on my nightstand and I kind down desires after I get up earlier than I neglect them

Dan Szymborski: I used to do it on notepads, however i’ve alongside transformed them to textual content

Dan Szymborski: And at varied states of consciousness, odd issues occur

Dan Szymborski: Like the time I wakened with this haunting message in addition to me

Dan Szymborski:

Tom: I’m new to this web site.  Does BABIP have a tendency to point both regression or a surge in AVG for a participant?  Say if BABIP is .050 <> AVG

Dan Szymborski: It tends to regress closely, way more for pitchers

Dan Szymborski: hitters have a bigger, extra predictive band of BABIP capability

Nu Roman Tick: Who is the perfect romantic composer and why is it Chopin?

Dan Szymborski: I’d say Mahler or Liszt, although I’d undoubtedly get pushback in the second

Dan Szymborski: Chopin wrote so little past piano that it’s arduous for me to name him primary.

Dan Szymborski: And let’s admit it, the orchestral elements of the piano concertos are principally afterthoughts

Re: Dreams: I hold a dream log as effectively. I usually hear music in my desires and have hyper vivid desires. So I can relate

Chef Boyardee: I’m right here.

TStats: Monopoly is the only best boardgame ever however a timer?? smh video games with my household went weeks the place you simply rolled once you walked by the desk and left postits for commerce offers

Chef Boyardee: *tiptoe by the tulips performs* …. start scene… a cupboard slowly opens and a can creeps barely in direction of the sting earlier than rolling onto the counter after which the ground. The noise jars you awake. You get up in a daze. The can is approaching. it stops in entrance of your mattress. Chef Boyardee pops out like a genie in a bottle and also you’re coated in soup. *finish scene*

Dan Stan: Which occurs first? Patrick Corbin throws a no-hitter, Blake Snell reveals consistency for 25 consecutive begins, or Baltimore being consumed by the ocean?

Dan Szymborski: The third

JB: Why do (unhealthy) groups going nowhere signal boring vets to dam younger promising gamers, then give the younger participant sporadic AB and play them out of place which results in unhealthy manufacturing which they assume confirms their determination to not give them an on a regular basis job. A whole lot of occasions the expertise is there to be productive if the groups would get out of their method. What attainable profit are the groups seeing or anticipating after they do that? Noone is shopping for further tickets or jerseys to see the Aledmys Diaz’s of the world.

Dan Szymborski: Bad groups going nowhere are typically unhealthy groups going nowhere as a result of they’re poorly run

banana: psychopath. the sociopath would put some lemon juice and saran or foil on the top to maintain it from browning

Guest: Here’s my most well-liked recipe: floor chuck, and loads of maraschino cherries. Still chili?

Dan Szymborski: There’s no peppers!

Dan Szymborski: I assume it’s cherri

jWR: Idea for phase on the 40 recreation mark…gamers who’ve considerably higher or worse ZIPS projections primarily based on their early season efficiency.

Dan Szymborski: I generally try this one

Dan Szymborski: however not at all times – it’s a bit of too simple

Dan Szymborski: Except in a pair apparent circumstances, I attempt to write utilizing projections quite than writing ABOUT projections

Guest: i used to be shocked to see ’24 & ’25 projs for Jordan Walker have been sub-100 wRC+, is he simply too younger for the sims to count on MLB manufacturing but?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS noticed him as excessive danger – that’s an issue you run into with imply proejctions generally

Dan Szymborski: But excessive upside

Dan Szymborski: I talked fairly a bit about this, together with after I had him in my breakouts piece

Nu Roman Tick: As a piano participant I’m biased in direction of Chopin however I’ll concede you made good factors

Dan Szymborski: I like Chopin

Dan Szymborski: I in all probability ought to clarify why I selected Liszt up there

Dan Szymborski: He understood orchestral coloration significantly better than Chopin did

Dan Szymborski: And he confirmed extra evolution as a composer. Some of his later works have been *very* totally different and ahead wanting

Dan Szymborski: In among the very newest works, there are hints of Bartok

Dan Szymborski: and lots of hints of impressionism

Dan Szymborski: (Berlioz was the perfect orchestrator of the romantic period, after all)

Uncle Spike: If you have been to work in an MLB entrance workplace, what could be your perfect function?  You wish to be the GM, proper?

Dan Szymborski: advisory

Dan Szymborski: I’d not be a very good GM

Dan Szymborski: I’m somebody who has to have the liberty to discover initiatives primarily based on whim, seeing the place they go

Nu Roman Tick: I additionally fairly like Franz Liszt. Hopefully it’s not a controversial take!

Joey Baggadonuts: Do you assume Grayson’s secondaries are adequate presently to hold within the O’s rotation? How anxious are you by his most up-to-date begin?

Dan Szymborski: Yes and under no circumstances

Dan Szymborski: It was a foul begin, however I don’t see main penalties

Ian desmond was good: An addition to my earlier query concerning bat pace. Would fangraphs ever publish a smash issue leaderboard? Smash issue reaches reliability faster than every other bat-to-ball metric.

Ian desmond was good: would fangraphs ever publish an estimated bat pace leaderboard primarily based on the equation in Alan Nathan’s ebook utilizing publicly out there savant knowledge? Would be fascinating to check that to the inevitable noticed bat speeds from hawk-eye

Dan Szymborski: I don’t typically make these choices, although we do forged a large internet

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if David’s ever thought of that or not

Dan Szymborski: On that word, it’s time for me to go out for an additional week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!