The Dodgers got here into 2023 with a ton of query marks. Was a platoon of James Outman and Trayce Thompson really the reply in middle area? Was Miguel Rojas a adequate backstop given Gavin Lux’s damage? Was Jason Heyward’s bat salvageable, and the place would he play if it was? Was Miguel Vargas prepared? The offense was hardly as much as the requirements of the crew’s current run.
They didn’t reply all these questions positively, however with the advantage of hindsight, the offense appears wonderful. The crew is hitting a collective .243/.328/.446, good for a 110 wRC+. They’re the most effective baserunning groups in baseball. Mookie Betts can play shortstop now, which is neat. But they’ve exchanged these worries for one which has dogged each crew in baseball over time: Is there sufficient beginning pitching to go round?
In the previous week, the Dodgers have been dealt two extra blows on that entrance. One is a bump within the highway: Clayton Kershaw’s sore left shoulder despatched him to the IL Monday, the place he hopes to make a minimal 15-day keep. That’s mildly regarding, but when Kershaw and the Dodgers are proper, it’s only a non permanent setback. One of Kershaw’s potential replacements acquired far worse information, nevertheless. Yesterday, the membership introduced that Dustin May may have elbow surgical procedure to restore his flexor tendon, which suggests he’s carried out pitching in 2023.
It may not really feel this fashion, however May debuted within the majors practically 4 years in the past, in August of 2019. He’s been tantalizing Dodgers followers along with his excessive octane sinker for years and irritating them along with his damage luck for simply as lengthy. Is he a lockdown reliever? A mid-rotation cog? An ace? This yr, it appeared like he would possibly lastly be fulfilling the rosiest potential outlook. In his first eight outings, he put collectively a 2.68 ERA (3.36 FIP) whereas averaging practically six innings per begin. Then he got here out on May 17, felt elbow ache, and departed after one inning the place his fastball was down two miles an hour.
As Jay Jaffe famous on the time, May’s authentic damage timetable was 4-6 weeks. The Dodgers knew that his flexor tendon was the problem, although. Fabian Ardaya reported that the tendon didn’t heal correctly throughout May’s restoration from Tommy John surgical procedure in 2021. Like I mentioned, his damage luck is abysmal. May and the crew opted to deal with the arm with platelet-rich plasma, however because the weeks handed and May didn’t begin a rehab task, the wall was more and more coated with writing.
Flexor tendon surgical procedure usually requires six to 10 months of restoration. Tarik Skubal is a current instance: he had surgical procedure on August 17 of final yr and threw his first minor league begin on June 4 earlier than returning to the majors yesterday. That places May on monitor to return to the majors subsequent June, or maybe earlier if his rehab goes properly. That’s the optimistic case, although; the pessimist’s view is that repeated elbow accidents are the worst omen possible, and that May would possibly want extra time to return in any respect, and definitely to return in good type. After all, he’s solely made 14 begins since Tommy John surgical procedure; that’s hardly sufficient time to know what sort of pitcher he’s now, not to mention whether or not he’ll have the ability to mount one other comeback so quickly.
The Dodgers have constructed their crew round pitching redundancy in recent times. They’ve signed reclamation initiatives in free company, hoarded pitching prospects, and customarily tried to maintain extra pitchers round than they’ll want at anybody time. That was a prescient choice. May’s preliminary damage coincided with an IL stint for Julio Urías, and Noah Syndergaard adopted not lengthy after. Walker Buehler is recovering from his personal TJ surgical procedure. Throw Kershaw within the combine, and that’s a stable five-man rotation’s value of injured Dodgers.
Where does that depart their common beginning rotation? There’s a whole lot of uncertainty, little doubt, however their team-building would possibly simply dig them out of this pitching gap. Urías returned on Sunday. He appeared rusty, and he in all probability is, however he’s nonetheless a wonderful pitcher. Tony Gonsolin is off to a forgettable begin, however he’s a pleasant mid-rotation arm, a luxurious for a crew flailing for starters. After that, the Dodgers flip issues over to the youngsters.
Bobby Miller is the crew’s second-best prospect (and No. 33 total), and he’s been displaying off his upper-90s sinker for over a month now. There’s a whole lot of May in him, minus the pleasant hair and hopefully minus the damage considerations. Emmet Sheehan acquired roughed up by the Pirates yesterday, however he appeared sharp in Double-A after which put up three straight stable begins to kick off his main league profession. He has a nasty four-seam fastball… and a slider that wants all the assistance it could get.
That’s not the place the rookie parade ends, both. Michael Grove is extra of a swingman, the kind of man you hope to maintain as a “seventh starter” for damage safety, and it has proven in his main league outcomes this yr (7.02 ERA in 41 innings). But his underlying numbers look uninspiring moderately than abysmal (4.53 xFIP), and he’s doubtless headed again to the bullpen. Gavin Stone, one other prime 100 prospect (no. 63), acquired an early-season cup of espresso and is again within the majors now as an extended reliever. He was known as up after Kershaw hit the IL, and I believe he would possibly match into the beginning combine if Kershaw misses greater than the minimal time.
Urías, Gonsolin, and 4 rookies: it hardly seems like a dominant rotation. It’s not a dominant rotation, the truth is. Kershaw and May lead all Los Angeles starters in WAR this yr, and that’s with May not having pitched for practically two months. The Dodgers don’t want it to be dominant, although. Hit on one of many 4 rookies, get Kershaw again, and commerce for a good starter on the deadline, and the outcome can be a wonderfully serviceable playoff group. Heck, hit on two of the 4 rookies, and also you’d have that very same group with damage backup. That’s a wonderfully cheap plan, and it doesn’t assume something from Syndergaard (who would possibly simply be unhealthy now) and Buehler (who may not be again in time). That doesn’t imply that they’re within the clear, in fact; additional accidents may depart them in a pickle, and Kershaw is on the IL actually proper now. But for a crew with this deluge of accidents, the Dodgers are in cheap form.
The May damage information is a bummer all the identical. He’s an absolute pleasure to look at, 15 kilos of twitchiness in a 10-pound bag, and that’s simply his mannerisms; his explosive sinker and turn-on-a-dime cutter are additionally nice enjoyable. I’m involved about his future prospects, although. Two main surgical procedures on the identical elbow in a three-year span is past ominous. I’m rooting for a full-strength return subsequent spring, but it surely’ll be a tense offseason ready for updates on how his rehab is progressing. Don’t get me improper: that is robust for the Dodgers, too. But they’ve acquired a military of reinforcements. For the second, I’m extra apprehensive about May’s future than their current.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com