Every yr, the Rays and Guardians pull off a neat magic trick. They piece collectively a formidable beginning rotation by utilizing a number of superior pitchers they’ve developed, some mid-level guys who pitch approach above their pedigree, and some slots of the rotation that principally appear like scrubs however churn out stable worth anyway. The Rays prefer to sprinkle in some low-cost veteran acquisitions that develop into higher than all of us thought, too. When the inevitable warmth dying of the universe happens, I half count on Cleveland and Tampa Bay to be locked within the twelfth inning of a 2–2 recreation, so constant are their developmental pipelines.
The 2023 season has put some stress on the Rays’ aspect of that equation, although. Their top-end starters have been wonderful. Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin have each offered nice bulk, Tyler Glasnow has been improbable since getting back from damage, and Taj Bradley is promising regardless of a tough begin to the season (however is headed to Triple-A to make room for Civale). But accidents have wreaked havoc on their depth this yr: Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Josh Fleming have all hit the 60-day IL, with solely Fleming more likely to return this yr.
Something else unusual is happening down on the Gulf Coast, too: the Rays’ bullpen has been atrocious. I half anticipated Google Docs to underline that sentence as incorrect, as a result of that is a part of the Tampa Bay mythos: decide some random relievers, sprinkle in some loopy arm angles, and bam: top-five bullpen. But as an alternative it’s been a bottom-five bullpen, and that makes the starters’ jobs a lot tougher. The Rays have fallen out of first place within the AL East, the Blue Jays are lurking not far behind; one thing needed to change.
That change: a commerce that despatched Aaron Civale from Ohio to Florida in alternate for Kyle Manzardo. Civale is having probably the greatest stretches of his profession. Manzardo’s star has dimmed this yr as he’s struggled in Triple-A and been damage, however he’s a Top 100 prospect nonetheless. This deal makes numerous sense for each groups, however I’m going to concentrate on two explicit components: Tampa Bay’s defense-in-depth rotation plans, and Cleveland’s new commerce plans.
The Rays have invested a lot of assets in beginning pitching. Eflin acquired the biggest free-agent contract in workforce historical past. Glasnow and Rasmussen have been commerce return headliners. McClanahan was a excessive draft decide, Bradley is a heralded prospect, and Springs received a contract extension earlier this yr. For a workforce that avoids contractual commitments as a lot as attainable and tries to spend smarter reasonably than tougher, these items matter: they’re taking away from attainable investments elsewhere on the workforce.
Civale pushes that technique even additional. He gained’t attain free company till after the 2025 season, and he’s making his second journey to arbitration this yr. I feel he’ll do pretty nicely there; he has a 2.34 ERA and can set a brand new profession excessive in innings pitched assuming he makes each flip down the stretch. That ERA overstates how good he’s by a good margin — a .242 BABIP and 5.6% HR/FB fee will do this — however he’s a stable third starter who makes up for a scarcity of strikeout stuff by flooding the zone and inducing weak contact along with his cutter. He looks as if the sort of pitcher who would possibly profit from Tampa Bay’s pitch combine optimization, too, although that’s extra hypothesis than certainty.
If you take a look at the make-up of the workforce, this push into beginning pitching makes numerous sense. The Rays have an amazing observe document relating to discovering above-average regulars through commerce or improvement. Jose Siri, Luke Raley, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, Isaac Paredes — all of those guys will probably be round for years to return, and so they’re all performing nicely after the Rays picked them up for peanuts on the commerce market. The homegrown core — Wander Franco, Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe (eh), and a bushelful of hitting prospects — compliments these commerce items properly. The lineup isn’t going to value Tampa Bay a lot wage, and it’s going to be round for some time. Further investments in hitting really feel like diminishing marginal returns until the Rays can discover a distinction maker at catcher, and people don’t precisely develop on bushes.
Likewise, investing within the bullpen isn’t usually how they function. The Rays don’t spring for giant rental relievers; they search for gamers with distinctive abilities who would possibly unlock a better stage of efficiency with Rays teaching, or try to search out these gamers within the draft or through free company. They traded for Nick Anderson as soon as upon a time, however he had a ton of years of workforce management remaining. There’s clearly a method in place for find out how to assemble a wonderful bullpen from usually ignored pitchers; simply because it hasn’t labored this yr doesn’t imply they’re more likely to abandon it.
When you set it that approach, investing spare assets within the rotation is a logical transfer. As the saying goes, you possibly can by no means have an excessive amount of pitching, so the marginal returns don’t decline as rapidly. Sure, they’ll have some guys getting back from damage subsequent yr, however let’s be actual: a number of the at the moment wholesome pitchers will get injured. I’m not attempting to jinx anybody; that’s simply how baseball works. Pitching is hard on arms, however it’s a must to do it.
When you think about it from a chance value standpoint, this commerce makes much more sense. Manzardo was blocked 5 methods to Sunday within the Rays system. Díaz is round for a number of extra years and is principally first base solely at this level in his profession. Raley’s pure house is first base. Top prospect Curtis Mead might be a long-term match on the place. Paredes is taking part in third base for now, however he would possibly want to maneuver throughout the diamond sooner or later. Jonathan Aranda is melting Triple-A once more and works greatest at first. They’re packed to the gills, in different phrases. Manzardo must beat out numerous guys to supply worth on the main league stage.
Over in Cleveland, the state of affairs seems sort of the identical, however solely on the floor. Sure, the Guardians have Josh Naylor and Josh Bell, however Naylor can faux the outfield and Bell is barely round for one more yr. Heck, DH exists too, and Cleveland designated hitters have a ugly 83 wRC+ on the yr. The Guardians have a glut of center infield prospects however weaknesses in every single place else. Manzardo faking the outfield is likely to be higher than numerous the choices the workforce is at the moment working on the market (Steven Kwan, you’re a gem, this isn’t about you).
Is it unusual for a contender to commerce away good beginning pitching? Absolutely. The Guardians simply traded for a bulk starter in Noah Syndergaard, in actual fact. But just like the Rays, the Guardians run a comically small price range and should assume lengthy and onerous about the place to allocate assets. As I discussed within the Rays part, Civale is headed for a increase, and the workforce has loads of beginning pitching in place for 2024. Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill are rotation stalwarts to various levels. Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Allen are all making a case for rotation spots subsequent yr. Peyton Battenfield will probably be again sooner or later, too. If you’re pinching pennies, Civale seems like an odd man out, notably contemplating the groups’ wants on offense.
In previous years, the Guardians have opted for amount over high quality in commerce returns. They appear to at all times obtain two or extra gamers again, and people gamers run the gamut from fascinating statistical circumstances to reclamation tasks to mid-tier hitters who undertaking as future position gamers. That retains the workforce flush with low-cost contributors, however it’s led to years of 40-man roster crunches and a scarcity of high farm expertise. Manzardo instantly slots in as Cleveland’s high prospect on The Board, a sign of how the workforce’s farm system usually works.
In a way, this commerce is concerning the limitations of the idea of substitute stage. Manzardo is likely to be beneath substitute stage for Tampa Bay in the event you exclude his worth in commerce. The Rays are flush with individuals who do the identical factor that he does, solely higher, and he’s not versatile sufficient to discover a place of their platoon-heavy system. That’s no knock on his abilities; regardless of a down 2023, scouts are nonetheless excessive on his bat-to-ball abilities and skill to barrel the ball up regularly sufficient to make up for middling uncooked energy. It’s only a truth of life given the state of the system.
On the opposite aspect of issues, Civale’s worth above substitute may also have been unfavorable to Cleveland. Money issues rather a lot on a shoestring price range, and the group’s crop of rookies can possible make up most of his efficiency. The Yankees or Dodgers would possibly select a 3.90 ERA starter making $4.5 million over a 4.00 ERA starter making the minimal, however the Guardians would possible choose to make use of that cash elsewhere. I’m not even certain Civale is healthier than the crop of rookies who could be competing with him for a job.
There’s only one unusual a part of this commerce for Cleveland: numerous the starters competing with Civale for rotation house subsequent yr are at the moment damage. Again, the Guardians simply traded for Syndergaard as a rental. Their rotation has been snakebitten this yr, and so they’re locked in a high-stakes pillow battle for the AL Central crown. They would possibly want 83 and even 84 wins to take the division down, and people wins are possible barely tougher to get with Civale leaving city. Clearly, the workforce thought it was value it, however I do assume this leaves Cleveland with a rotation deficit. Another commerce for bulk innings is likely to be within the playing cards, Jack Flaherty pun meant.
From Tampa Bay’s aspect, that is simply good enterprise. It may not be sufficient enterprise — the Orioles and Blue Jays are robust competitors — however it’s a transparent improve for each this yr and the subsequent few. Teams that function on tight budgets should be considering a number of years out, and this commerce improves the current and probably the long run as nicely. This was a great little bit of enterprise each methods, and what else would you count on? These two entrance workplaces know what they’re doing, notably relating to making trades. It solely stands to motive that offers between them assist either side out in the long term.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com