Analyzing (But Also Having fun with) Jorge Mateo’s Sizzling Start

Well, shoot. After grounding out to shortstop within the second inning of Wednesday night time’s sport in opposition to the Nationals, Jorge Mateo was eliminated resulting from hip discomfort. The Baltimore shortstop is formally day-to-day, and Rotowire experiences that he appears to have averted a critical harm, however the timing nonetheless stinks. Mateo is on the most well liked streak of his quick profession: After 16 video games, he has a 192 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR, tying him for third and fourth in baseball, respectively. Naturally, he wasn’t going to have the ability to hold this up for a complete season; he has a .378 BABIP, and his wOBA exceeds his xwOBA by 59 factors. It’s April 20, and the regression monster is laying in wait proper for him proper now.

But that’s a part of what makes his sizzling begin so enjoyable. This is Jorge Mateo! The light-hitting, glove-first speedster. He was a enjoyable participant when he was simply stealing bases, making leap throws from the opening, and making an attempt to beat out infield hits. All of a sudden he’s obtained a .638 slugging share. In the final 16 video games, he’s raised his profession wRC+ by 9%. Obviously, I’m going to look at whether or not any of this appears sustainable, however first let’s take a second to take pleasure in what we’re seeing whereas spring is on the earth.

You know who’s positively having fun with Mateo’s sizzling begin? His Baseball Savant sliders, that are actually fulfilling their function:

Now that we’ve had our enjoyable, it’s time to concentrate to the syntax of issues. At first look, it’d appear like Mateo isn’t doing something that new. Below is a graph of his wRC+ over the course of his profession. You can see that he’s had some extremely popular stretches in every of the final two seasons.

As just lately as final yr, he had an extended stretch the place he hit practically this properly. Over the 23 video games from July 27 to August 18, Mateo put up a wRC+ of 172, peaking at 197 on August 12. All the identical, even a cursory look at his high line stats reveals some thrilling modifications:

Mateo is unquestionably outperforming his anticipated stats, however these anticipated stats are nonetheless approach, approach up. His stroll charge can be up considerably from final yr, and his strikeout charge is down a large 11.8 share factors. His strikeout charge did dip this low throughout final yr’s sizzling streak, however his underlying metrics didn’t change the best way they’ve this yr.

Let’s begin together with his plate self-discipline. By Baseball Savant’s swing/take runs metric, his determination making has been value 4 runs this yr, up from a disastrous -16 final yr.

Mateo is swinging quite a bit much less general, however the drop in his chase charge is especially large. That means extra known as strikes, however fewer strikes general. The result’s that 33.6% of the pitches he has seen got here when he was forward within the rely, up from 22.1% in 2022. During that 23-game sizzling stretch from final yr, his chase charge didn’t change a lot in any respect.

This is really one thing new for him, and right here’s why it issues a lot. There are three warmth maps under; the one within the center is Mateo’s profession ISO per batted ball. He must be swinging wherever it’s purple, since that’s the place he can do injury. On the left is his swing charge from 2022, and on the precise is his swing charge thus far in 2023:

That’s an enormous distinction! Last yr, Mateo swung at just about something near the zone, apart from the skin edge. This yr, he’s not simply being extra passive, and he’s not simply chasing much less. He’s laser-focused on the pitches that he can crush, and he actually is crushing them. For some gamers, getting much less aggressive can result in a dip in touch high quality; not so for Mateo. Take a take a look at his batted ball metrics:

Mateo isn’t simply hitting balls onerous; he’s demolishing them. He simply hit the toughest ball of his profession, and of his 19 hard-hit balls this yr, all however two had been hit over 100 mph. How new is that? While he had two 2022 stretches with with a hard-hit charge this excessive, he’s by no means had stretch with a 92.2 mph exit velocity earlier than, and he’s by no means come near hitting 42.5% of his BIP over 100 mph (in my Jorge Mateo spreadsheet, that column is titled Demolish Rate).

The different growth is much less inspiring: Mateo is hitting a ton of groundballs. He’s lower his launch angle in half, and even for a participant together with his velocity, that’s not nice information. But as Ben Clemens wrote on Wednesday, “If you’re hitting the ball on the ground a ton and not hitting it hard when you do put it in the air, that’s bad. If you’re making loud aerial contact, that’s good.” A 27.3% HR/FB charge is unsustainable, however break down Mateo’s numbers and it turns into obvious that he’s profiting from his contact within the air:

Mateo is hitting the ball farther and considerably more durable, and his xwOBA on air balls is up 164 factors. He’s nonetheless outperforming it by fairly a bit, however remember that anticipated stats don’t take spray angle under consideration, and because the starting of the Statcast period, pulled balls within the air have had a wOBA 129 factors larger than their xwOBA. Mateo’s pull charge on air balls is a large 59%, which implies there’s much less luck behind this efficiency than you may assume.

Coincidence or not, all of those modifications are occurring as Mateo is breaking in a barely revamped batting stance. Last yr, he used an open stance, together with his shoulders beginning out rotated additional away from the pitcher than his hips. His swing additionally had a fairly commonplace leg kick. This yr, his physique is true according to the pitcher, and he makes use of a two-part timing mechanism that’s one thing like a deconstructed toe faucet. He narrows his stance by drawing his entrance foot again, pauses for a second with it flat on the bottom, then steps ahead and really barely towards the third base facet, opening up only a hair. Mateo has at all times appeared to maintain a number of his weight on his entrance leg; I’m not an professional, however to me it appears like the brand new stance permits him to be a bit extra balanced, preserving his weight again longer and producing extra energy together with his again leg.

I ought to in all probability admit that the unique title of this text was, “Jorge Mateo Is Never Gonna Die.” It was identified to me a couple of hours earlier than Wednesday’s sport that I may be jinxing Mateo, so it’s attainable that his harm is my fault. “I’m never gonna die,” is what a character in a comedy says proper earlier than they get hit by a bus or one thing. My level was that Mateo was going to return again to earth in some unspecified time in the future. And I do know I’ve spent the final 1,500 phrases or so cataloging all of the completely different ways in which he appears like a unique participant, however we’re nonetheless speaking about simply 16 video games and 57 PAs. He isn’t in actual fact going to dwell perpetually, although I doubt hip discomfort would be the factor that takes him down. He’s at all times struggled in opposition to fastballs, and thus far he’s fared worse than ever in opposition to pitches at or above 95 mph. He’s additionally seeing extra fastballs than ever.

But whereas I don’t assume Mateo goes to take care of a 68th percentile chase charge or an 86th percentile common exit velocity, I’m prepared to consider he’s higher now than he was final yr. Here’s the extra necessary half: He doesn’t want to enhance a lot to be an excellent participant. Mateo is a superb shortstop. He might not have hit properly sufficient to be a Gold Glove finalist, however no matter your most well-liked defensive metric — OAA, DRP, DRS, UZR, that bizarre one the place you simply look along with your eyeballs — it adored him in 2022:

In reality, when you take the typical of all 4 metrics, Mateo’s rating of 9.3 is second in baseball, behind solely Dansby Swanson. If you are taking the typical of every participant’s rank in every system, he comes out first. This is a convoluted approach of claiming what Leo Morgenstern mentioned final yr: Jorge Mateo deserved a Gold Glove. And glorious defensive shortstops don’t must contribute a lot on offense to supply worth. He simply put up 2.8-WAR season regardless of a wRC+ of 82. Even if he holds onto only a fraction of those beneficial properties, a tiny enchancment in touch high quality or plate self-discipline might make him a league common hitter, and due to this fact an All-Star caliber participant.

Further, Mateo is likely one of the quickest gamers in baseball. His 5.8 baserunning runs put him in a tie for the Fifteenth-most precious runner in baseball final yr. He led the American League with 35 steals, and his eight thus far this yr path solely Cedric Mullins and Nico Hoerner. That is to say, each little little bit of on-base skill he can add will get compounded as a result of it is going to enable him to supply extra worth on the basepaths, too.

Even after you strip away the batted ball luck, Mateo’s efficiency to this point is extraordinarily encouraging. I’m hoping fiercely that this hip harm is nothing main, and that he will get the prospect to journey this sizzling streak so far as it’ll take him.