Is Cody Bellinger’s Two-Strike Method Sustainable?

Back in July, I dove into the pulled fly ball successes of Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes that led to them outperforming their Statcast anticipated statistics. Since then, I’ve paid specific consideration to Bellinger. Much of that is because of his fascinating free-agency case. His distinctive profile relative to earlier free brokers with this degree of efficiency is fascinating. On the floor, 4.1 WAR and 134 wRC+ at age 27 from an athletic multi-positional participant is usually deserving of a $150 million-plus contract. But Bellinger isn’t a typical participant; the query of sustainability looms because of the nature of his efficiency, most notably highlighted by a Tenth-percentile arduous hit price.

Doubting the stickiness of his efficiency is totally honest. Hitting the ball arduous provides you extra room for error; the additional you’re down the hard-hit-rate spectrum, the extra reliant you’re on different expertise which are maybe not as sticky. Spending 9 figures on that sort of profile is horrifying! But the extra I take into consideration Bellinger’s profile, this query retains popping again up in my head: if we hopped in a time machine and went to the yr 2008, would we query for a second whether or not he deserves an enormous long-term deal? I do know that’s a flawed thought, but it surely’s lurking in my mind due to the years of conventional teaching targeted on the significance of placing the ball in play with two strikes and never worrying about what sort of contact is made, or how hitting to contact and letting dwelling runs occur accidentally is the purest type of hitting.

But after pondering extra, I reminded myself of how the information the general public has entry to now’s helpful for these actual causes. We know higher than we did 15 years in the past about what variables have sturdy causal results on efficiency and/or fluctuation — this could’t be ignored! We ought to need a hitter to make flush contact persistently, no matter depend. We ought to query and think about what makes Bellinger completely different or not.

Recently, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello investigated among the questions round Bellinger, most notably his hard-hit price and two-strike strategy. Two months earlier than that, Baseball Prospectus’ Craig Goldstein highlighted the considerations round Bellinger’s Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity and the way DRC+ hadn’t purchased into his efficiency, significantly the house run output, due to the shortage of arduous hit. By DRC+, he ended the season at 112, a far cry from his 134 wRC+. In brief, there was loads of pondering about Bellinger’s 2023 profile and whether or not it may be repeated. This piece will do largely the identical factor, simply from a unique angle.

One of the details of rivalry from Petriello and Goldstein was the probability that Bellinger can proceed to slug (and particularly hit dwelling runs) on the tempo he did in 2023, which might be closely reliant on his skill to proceed pulling the ball within the air. I don’t have a lot so as to add there. What hasn’t been addressed is the main points of Bellinger’s two-strike strategy. With a .312 wOBA, he was the most effective hitters in baseball with two strikes. Visually, his skill to control his physique and barrel to go down and get pitches or keep tall and shoot a liner to the other subject was a transparent enchancment from years previous. These are the sorts of issues a hitter can’t do if their physique is compromised, so it’s not shocking to see Bellinger present such a drastic enchancment from earlier years.

This is what that the old fashioned coach continues to whisper into my ear: Bellinger’s .312 wOBA with two strikes is as a result of he’s battling! Ignore the .255 xwOBA, although that hole is the largest in baseball in by a large margin. But sadly, I can’t simply ignore it. You imply to inform me that he can maintain this degree of shallow outfield peppering with such low contact high quality?

We’re not simply speaking about pulled fly balls right here, both. Bellinger resides off dropping softly hit liners just like elite bat-to-ball guys like Luis Arraez, Freddie Freeman, and Steven Kwan. If I’m going to be satisfied that he can repeat his two strike successes, I would like extra to justify this hole and the lackluster underlying numbers — like, maybe, whether or not he’s persistently putting these batted balls in excellent spots and the way usually he’s giving himself an opportunity to take action. Well, a Ninetieth-percentile contact price with two strikes is an effective place to start out. If you’re going to depend on discovering holes, you would possibly as properly put the ball in play as a lot as attainable.

Contact charges alone don’t say a lot about what Bellinger is doing with these batted balls, although. If his hard-hit price takes a dip when he will get to 2 strikes, it turns into much more necessary that he’s dropping balls in no man’s land with consistency. The nice line of capturing for singles is hard to toe, and never many can do it year-in, year-out. Petriello informed us about Bellinger’s skill to transform weak contact into hits, so let’s give attention to his non-hard-hit balls (aka, these hit below 94 mph) with two strikes and the way he ranks relative to the remainder of the league. Specifically, is he hitting these throughout the excellent launch angle distribution of 8–32 levels? The following desk units the minimal batted ball occasions of two-strike batted balls hit lower than or equal to 94 mph at 75. Here are the outcomes:

This listing cuts off on the high 25 by SweetSpot%. The total group contains 141 gamers, with Bellinger rating twenty second. Some names that stick out listed here are the aforementioned Freeman, Kwan, and Arraez, in addition to good contact hitters with notable two-strike approaches like Rizzo, Bichette, and Semien. If you need to be a stable two-strike hitter, it is sensible to emulate the qualities of different gamers who’re, too!

If we lower the launch angle vary to account just for line drives (10–25 levels), then Bellinger’s place hardly strikes (21 out of 141). Going to this vary is necessary, as a result of the upper the launch angle goes, the upper the exit velocity must be to transform successful. If we’re targeted on non-hard-hit balls solely, then it is sensible to key in on line drives, since these are what a participant hopes for when simplifying their swing and strategy with two strikes.

So the place does this depart us when it comes to confidence that Bellinger could make this stick over time? Considering this is the primary time in his profession that he has flashed this skill whereas additionally performing properly, I’m undecided. That’s irritating, however all this evaluation simply involves the identical conclusion as others have. Not all analyses can definitive, although, and Bellinger’s may not be even with entry to extra knowledge. But this does present some context round whether or not his two-strike strategy and delicate hitting nature are in any respect just like different nice contact hitters. It appears honest to say so. Does this imply a crew will pony up and pay the contract he and Scott Boras demand? That reply will solely include time.