Bryce Harper is again. One hundred and sixty days in the past — lower than six months! — he had Tommy John surgical procedure, repairing a torn elbow ligament he suffered final April. NBC Sports Philadelphia, who you’d suppose would have learn on the scenario, revealed an optimistic headline with an aggressive timetable: Harper might be swinging by mid-May and taking part in in main league video games by the All Star break. It’s May 3 in the present day.
Suffice to say that 160 days isn’t numerous time. I’ve perishable items in my fridge that may have been there when Harper went beneath the knife. As Jay Cuda famous, the White Sox hadn’t gained two straight video games all season (till final night time) since Harper acquired a shiny (nicely, in all probability not actually) new ligament to interchange his previous one. That’s not how these timetables work.
Tommy John surgical procedure makes gamers disappear for some time. They come again to a staff that appears comparable however not an identical to the one they left behind. That’s technically true of the Phillies — Trea Turner is reprising his previous position as Harper’s sidekick, Taijuan Walker is new on the town, and the bullpen has turned over — however it nonetheless feels kind of just like the staff Harper left. A Philadelphia sports fan who was busy on Opening Day may tune right into a Phillies recreation after the 76ers’ season is over and get confused. “Hey, wasn’t Harper getting TJ? What’s he doing in the lineup?”
To be truthful, most of our idea of Tommy John surgical procedure has to do with pitchers getting it. As you may think, their elbows give out extra ceaselessly, what with it being a throwing harm and all. Harper tore a ligament in his elbow final April, which is notably not when he had surgical procedure. You may bear in mind him lacking a while final yr, however that’s as a result of he broke his hand. He simply stopped throwing, which is a factor that any place participant in baseball can do now that the DH exists in each leagues.
Position gamers want UCL reconstruction surgical procedure much less ceaselessly than pitchers, however they nonetheless want it typically. Paul Molitor was the primary main league hitter to bear the method, as I realized from this encyclopedic overview by Ginny Searle. As of that article’s publication in 2019, the typical restoration time for a place participant was 11 months. There are loads of current examples to attract on: Didi Gregorius got here again in slightly below seven months; Corey Seager missed almost a yr, although that largely got here all the way down to timing, as he had surgical procedure this very day 5 years in the past, and an early-May surgical procedure meant he wasn’t able to return till after the playoffs had been over anyway. Salvador Perez missed 15 months, however with an enormous asterisk: he had his surgical procedure in March 2019, after which there was no baseball to return to in March 2020.
Harper has an enormous benefit in his restoration, one which Gregorius and Seager shared: He bats left-handed however had surgical procedure on his proper elbow. A lefty swing places extra drive on the left elbow than the proper, which is nice, as a result of Harper’s elbow is clearly lower than 100%; he’ll be restricted to DH for the foreseeable future. It’s unhealthy sufficient that he can’t even make a primary baseman’s throws; he’s studying the receiving components of taking part in first base now with a plan to transition to the place in a couple of months when he can deal with the (minimal) throwing the place requires.
If I needed to, I may let you know concerning the struggles of hitters getting back from TJ. Gregorius was by no means the identical after his. Seager wanted a yr of taking part in time to hit his stride once more, although his batting line post-surgery roughly matches his line from earlier than. Aaron Hicks went from lineup mainstay to perpetual fourth outfielder after his personal surgical procedure.
But these are simply anecdotes, and there’s loads of opposing proof. Travis d’Arnaud got here again from TJ and began fulfilling the promise he’d confirmed as a prospect; he’s been a greater hitter since returning. Perez had the most effective two offensive years of his profession within the two years after his surgical procedure. Gleyber Torres acquired a brand new UCL the yr earlier than he debuted within the main leagues and proceeded to go nova for 2 straight seasons. In mixture, hitters have been a bit worse upon their return, however the variance is so massive that particular person components in all probability matter greater than a broad common.
Has it crossed Harper’s thoughts that the Phillies want him again within the fold? Almost actually. A lineup that projected to be stuffed to the gills with defensively-limited sluggers has become something however. Rhys Hoskins is out for the yr. Darick Hall, the apparent Hoskins alternative, gained’t be again for months. The Phillies had a top-10 offense final yr even with Harper lacking loads of time and added Turner, and but they appear badly in want of additional offense, until it seems that Brandon Marsh is Yordan Alvarez with protection now, which is a minimum of doable however colossally unlikely.
As is so usually the case with accidents, we’ll by no means know precisely how Harper’s rehab and restoration have an effect on him. He may come again this yr and publish an MVP season even when his elbow is bothering him; nobody would argue the heights he’s able to reaching when he’s going nicely. He may really feel utterly unbothered by the elbow and but put up a disappointing yr; he adopted up his outrageous 2015 season (42 homers, 197 wRC+) with a clunker in 2016, with each of his ulnar collateral ligaments in good working order. Baseball is a recreation of streaks which might be usually indistinguishable from randomness, and that randomness doesn’t cease affecting you whenever you get injured.
To add to the uncertainty, Harper is making an attempt one thing novel in his return: skipping a rehab project. As hitting coach Kevin Long advised Matt Gelb in a characteristically revealing interview, “Harp’s Harp.”
Wait, no, that was the fallacious quote from the interview, albeit a delightfully ineffective one. Here’s the one I meant to tug: “If he goes on a rehab, does it mean he’ll be better? I just don’t see the importance of it as much as maybe other people do. So I’m kind of with Harp on this one. I don’t know what to expect.”
According to the Phillies, Harper has compiled the tough equal of fifty at-bats value of reside batting observe. As regular because it feels to see main leaguers tearing by the minors on rehab assignments — Fernando Tatis Jr. hit .515/.590/1.212 in eight video games of Triple-A appearances this yr — there’s no apparent purpose that dealing with minor leaguers in novelty uniforms is best than dealing with Ranger Suárez and Jeff Hoffman in an empty stadium, as Harper did throughout his ramp-up. But doing one thing totally different than the norm all the time invitations hypothesis, and skipping a traditional rehab project actually qualifies.
In different phrases, don’t learn an excessive amount of into Harper’s first few video games again. The query for the Phillies isn’t whether or not he’s again at full energy; it’s whether or not a rusty Harper beats their greatest various, and I believe that’s a transparent sure. Even in the event that they knew he would scuffle by his requirements for a couple of weeks upon returning, that sounds lots higher than the Jake Cave/Kody Clemens mashup they’ve been working with.
In whole, the Phillies are taking a look at an additional two months of Harper in comparison with the already optimistic July timeline he set instantly following his surgical procedure. Call it an additional 200 plate appearances or so, accounting for relaxation time. Depending on how rapidly he reacclimates and the way a lot relaxation he wants, that’s one thing like an additional two wins in comparison with the gamers he’s changing within the lineup. It’s a bit higher than that, even, as a result of bumping Cave and Clemens into reserve roles means fewer at-bats for their backups, a virtuous cycle of higher hitting.
Two wins may not imply something to the Phillies on the finish of the yr, however it additionally may be the distinction between making and lacking the playoffs. In 2022, in any case, they made the playoffs by a single recreation; subtract two wins off of that whole, and as an alternative of a World Series run with a pleasant rookie supervisor, we’d be speaking about their continued futility. The Phillies may win 95 video games and cruise to the playoffs or 81 and miss simply. But in the event that they’re within the mid 80s once more — and we’re projecting 84.7 wins for them in the intervening time — then turning a couple of losses into victories due to Harper’s heroics might be tremendously essential.
When you get proper all the way down to it, although, that’s not why Harper is again. He’s again as a result of he’s a baseball addict. He’s again as a result of he dedicates his total life to the game. Most gamers would have opted for surgical procedure once they initially tore their UCL. Certainly, most gamers would have taken a seat once they subsequently broke their hand; that’s two debilitating accidents directly, a good time to take a step again and repair what’s ailing you. Harper persevered, and was at his greatest within the greatest moments final October.
In final night time’s debut, Harper regarded rusty, unready for recreation pace. He struck out thrice in 4 at-bats and struggled to sq. up fastballs. But hey, minimize him some slack. He simply got here again from 5 months of strenuous rehab to bolster the Phillies’ playoff hopes. Plenty of main league hitters look unhealthy in opposition to pitchers like Julio Urías and Phil Bickford each night time. He’s nonetheless Bryce Harper, and returning this rapidly remains to be a mind-boggling feat.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com