Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/6/23 (12:30 PM ET)

Dan Szymborski: And right here we’re, for a barely time shifted chat!

Guest: Joey Wiemer = Adolis Garcia 2.0?

Dan Szymborski: Not positive that actually matches. Garcia was older however with a greater observe file

Dan Szymborski: Wiemer’s .800ish complete OPS in AAA final yr is definitely fairly underwhelming for the offensive setting he performed in

Dan Szymborski: So I wouldn’t get excited a few handful of video games

Dan Szymborski: Or are you simply making an attempt to get me to reply April!

Guest: it doesn’t appear cheap to me that mookie betts would have a 1.5 Def, and acuna would have -0.7. i can settle for that betts is a superior fielder, however how is the unfold so massive so quickly? particularly since acuna has made each play that’s come his means and has just a few assists. what does into that calculation?

Dan Szymborski: I believe you’re reacting a bit an excessive amount of to statistical data which have loads of volatility and can go up and down over the course of the season

Dan Szymborski: Defensive numbers are at all times particularly risky.

Dan Szymborski: Counting a relative measure like protection isn’t like counting homers.

Dan Szymborski: The homers don’t go down.

Dan Szymborski: As for particular person performs, it’s arduous for me to dissect since I haven’t seen all their defensive performs and even when I had, I’m not blessed with an eidetic reminiscence

Zack: When did Gleyber Torres flip into Mickey Mantle? I like SSS

Dan Szymborski: Be cautious about loving SSS, since you’re just one letter off from loving this

Dan Szymborski:

Antonio: Are there any particular type of showers that are extra predictive of May flowers?

Dan Szymborski: Printemps

Tommy: What do the Yankees do with the (doubtless) Donaldson damage? Call up Peraza and slide him to 3rd?

Dan Szymborski: LeMahieu is the best choice and taking part in Tony Phillips is what he’s round to do. For an prolonged damage — I don’t assume Donaldson’s there this time except I missed an replace this morning — I believe it relies upon what else is occurring within the roster on the time

Bill: Should the Yankees keep on with Brito? That changeup is devastating however I’m fearful about how he’d fare in opposition to a proper heavy lineup

Dan Szymborski: He truly had fairly first rate spare starter projections coming into the season!

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t fear an excessive amount of but – whereas he had a reverse platoon break up within the minors final yr, you additionally need to be very cautious about how you utilize quick time period platoon splits

Dan Szymborski: They’re extra even this profession as a complete

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS initiatives righties to hit 252/299/385 off him and lefties 258/325/441 – smaller splits than common however nonetheless current

Dallas: Good afternoon- if Henry Davis doesn’t stick at catcher long run, how would his FV change if he performed say RF, and are you assured in his skill to hit on the main league degree?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ need to speculate on our FV for him and the way it will change since I woudln’t be the one doing that

Dan Szymborski: BUT

Dan Szymborski: I might undoubtedly be far decrease on him as a prospect

Dan Szymborski: Yes, he hit in high-A ball, however in a 5 run a league setting at 22, you BETTER hit at high-A

Dan Szymborski: I’m definitely not assured till he reveals he can hit within the excessive minors in opposition to competitors his personal age

Antonio: That reporter who was at all times making an attempt to get the news on Teenaged Mutant Ninja Turtles…was that Tyler O’Neill’s sister?

Dan Szymborski: aunt

Phil: What’s your guess – Tyler Wells to bullpen, or Grayson Rodriguez again to AAA when Kyle Bradish returns?

Dan Szymborski: I believe it depends upon how properly he pitches

Dan Szymborski: I’m positive the O’s want to wring out an additional yr of service time from him

Phil: Is Shohei an actual human?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, however a future extra extremely developed human who got here right here by time machine

Danny: Usually a gradual starter, Cole seems locked in already. Finally getting Cy Cole?

Dan Szymborski: Certainly off to a rattling good begin.

Dan Szymborski: And he was already one of many contenders.

Debbie: The largest risk to the Yankees AL East crown in 2023 will probably be ______

Dan Szymborski: not profitable a adequate variety of video games to have the very best complete among the many AL East rivals.

JJ: Did you’re taking any common season wins over/underneath this yr?

Dan Szymborski: Arizona over, Dodgers underneath

TomBruno23: This Cardinal rotation…

Dan Szymborski: It’s definitely not a great signal that the ERA chief of the rotation allowed seven walks

Dan Szymborski: But they’ll be advantageous in the long term

Farhandrew Zaidman: True or False: Dustin May is unhittable when he’s touchdown his breaking ball for strikes.

Dan Szymborski: True

TomBruno23: Can Jordan Walker sustain his 147 wRC+ all season, and does he need to as a way to make up for his baserunning and protection?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not, however as I’ve talked about so much, his upside is huge.

Patrick: PLEASE for the love of every thing good and holy on this world clarify the IKF in heart factor. Doesn’t it look like the Yankees are for, no matter motive, simply getting ready for the worst worst case situation? What additional worth are you getting out of him on the market except 80 p.c of your outfielders get harm?

Dan Szymborski: That’s why he was on my breakouts record!

Dan Szymborski: WALKER NOT IKF

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see something flawed with getting ready for worst-case situations by seeing what your roster can do

Dan Szymborski: Steve Pearce was by no means going to play second full time, nevertheless it was helpful to know that he might pretend it properly sufficient to be an emergency choice

Inaccessible Rail: Should the Mets begin the sell-off now? Or wait till the buying and selling deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Very merciless

Jesse: Just learn the pitch-modeling article. Is Ohtani essentially the most proficient participant to ever play the sport?

Dan Szymborski: I hate to make such a sweeping declaration in an informal remark

Dan Szymborski: however he’s definitely amongst them

Dan Szymborski: it’s rattling arduous to be a significant league hitter OR a significant league pitcher and to be good at each may be very uncommon

Suzie: How the Rays be doin this?

Dan Szymborski: They have a very good rotation

Dan Szymborski: Even with Glasnow out

Dan Szymborski: It’s additionally the closest factor to a conventional rotation the Rays have had in years

Dan Szymborski: McClanahan-Springs-Glasnow-Rasmussen-Eflin-Fleming is a very good prime six

Chuckie: You anticipating Franmil to return to his Clevland glory?

Dan Szymborski: Not actually

Dan Szymborski: I used to be hopeful he might flip it round with the Cubs however he didn’t

Dan Szymborski: And it’s not just like the Royals are notably intelligent.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe the Dodgers might do it!

Guest: Mitch Keller has the most effective slider (the sweeper) in baseball this yr based on stuff + (small pattern measurement), nevertheless it was additionally prime 5ish within the 2nd half final yr when he got here again from his stint within the pen. Is this, together with the brand new cutter, going to lastly set him up for achievement when he settles in on the precise pitch combine?

Dan Szymborski: It’s definitely a risk. I used to be torn between him and Contreras for my breakouts record, and went with Contreras since Keller was a full season man who had a great yr in 2022

Charlie: How would you rank these low-end AL closers? LeClerc, Esteves, Lange, May?

Dan Szymborski: Probably May above Lange

Dan Szymborski: Leclerc is essentially the most attention-grabbing of them

Choochie: You nonetheless a believer in Kyle Bradish breaking out this season?

Dan Szymborski: Did I speak so much about him being an enormous breakout? I don’t do not forget that, however I’m additionally getting previous

Dan Szymborski: Though I believe he must be a great mid-rotation man

Dan Szymborski: and I’m much less fearful about him than most of their non-prospect starters

Jesse: Did the Mets make a mistake not having Vientos or Baty on their opening day roster?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t essentially assume so. You need them taking part in full time and so they simply weren’t going to do this in recreation 1

Angelos(er): The extra that I see how sturdy the Orioles line-up is, and the way they invested nothing in pitching within the low season, the extra I need to raid the Baltimore Aquarium for chum, cowl Angelos with it, and toss him in a shark tank

Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly disillusioned

Dan Szymborski: Of course, one of many pitchers I needed to see the O’s go after was Rodon, which isn’t look nice proper now!

Those who Franco aren’t misplaced: What workforce would you watched will find yourself with the largest differential from the Zips projections?

Dan Szymborski: Well, one of many prime groups will definitely have an enormous differential as a result of projections not often undertaking a imply projection of 100 wins

Dan Szymborski: The White Sox, in the event that they keep wholesome, COULD crush their projections

Dan Szymborski: Simply as a result of ZiPS is baking in loads of damage danger as a result of it hate hate HATES their PLan Bs mainly all over the place

Champ: Most doubtless injured starter to make an influence this yr: McCullers, Skubal, Montas?

Dan Szymborski: I might guess Montas except he has a setback

Toolsy: How involved must be with Alex Manoah’s drop in velocity?

Dan Szymborski: A bit.

Dan Szymborski: Not TOO a lot

Dan Szymborski: It’s attainable that it was the product of changes made after a reasonably awful first begin

Dan Szymborski: Now, if he *continues* to be lacking two mph from the spring I’d get more and more involved

Dan: How shortly will ROS fashions like ZiPS regulate to the extra aggressive/elevated stolen base setting?

Dan Szymborski: Not tremendous shortly because it nonetheless gained’t know the total motive why

Liz: What is your favourite or least favourite MLB.TV advert? Do you want Baseball Zen?

Dan Szymborski: After watching a bunch of MLB.TV video games, your mind begins to blot them out

Dan Szymborski: which is sweet so that you don’t lose your thoughts

Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless have flashbacks to fifteen years in the past to HIS FATHER IS THE DISTRICT ATTORNEY! advertisements through the palyoffs

Kyle: Harvey Dent – can we belief him? (College Humor throwback)

Sirras: Who is the most effective character on Parks and Rec?

Dan Szymborski: Like that’s even up for debate

Dan Szymborski:

Daniel: Has Alex Bregman truly decline from his 2018-9 peak? Is he ever getting near the ~155-60 wRC+ numbers he put up then?

Dan Szymborski: It’s very attainable that’s the case

Dan Szymborski: People underestimate what number of gamers merely simply peak at 23-35

Dan Szymborski: err 23-25

Dan Szymborski: clearly most gamers peak between 23-35!

Jimmy5: Has Aroldis Chapman sipped from the fountain of youth and regained velocity and abruptly turn out to be a power once more?  If so will the Royals be good and use him as a more in-depth to showcase him as a commerce chip later.

Dan Szymborski: If he pitches properly, I doubt groups will care what inning he was in. Chapman is just about a recognized amount

Dan Szymborski: It’s not just like the Royals need to pitch him within the ninth to get groups to assume “Hey, this Chapman dude’s pitching well, I wonder if he can be a closer?”

Walla Walla Ron Washington: What’s the primary identify of Aubrey Plaza’s character on Parks & Rec, once more?

Dan Szymborski: Janet. Janet Snakehole.

Walla Walla Ron Washington: Upon what does one prepare dinner one’s burgers and canines throughout a cookout?

Dan Szymborski: Something that retains it from falling right into a warmth supply

Oaktown Blues: Did you play Breath of the Wild, and are you excited for Tears of the Kingdom?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t truly

Dan Szymborski: I’ve by no means been the largest Zelda participant

Dan Szymborski: Not that I dislike these video games or an ything

Dan Szymborski: It’s simply I tended to overlook them

druidiful: Just needed to test to see when you knew what month it presently is?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, I do. Mid-Germinal.

Where within the World is Diego Castillo?: What was the identify of that Simon & Garfunkel music, you understand the one, one thing Come She Will?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I’m not nice with lyrics

Sirras: Narvaez out 8-9 weeks per MLBTR. Would you anticipate Nido or Alvarez to get many of the begins whereas Omar is out?

Dan Szymborski: I might positive as hell hope so

Hire Joe Morgan?: Is Methods of Rationality amongst your prime two favourite Harry Potter books?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what that’s

Dan Szymborski: But I DID have the neural community awhile again generate some new Hogwarts instructors

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: And barely outdated, however Hogwarts courses for MLB managers

Dan Szymborski:

Where within the World is Diego Castillo?: Bronson Arroyo have to be within the dialog about most proficient participant ever as a result of he might positive shred the guitar.

Dan Szymborski: There’s additionally Bo Jackson

JB: Will there be a Cataclysm Classic and can you play it?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually play the traditional variations

Gunnar down: Is Gunnar Henderson already a flop or simply coping with a hand damage?

Dan Szymborski: How dare you.

Dan Szymborski: How do I ban your IP?

Broken Bat: Dan, what’s your tackle Marmol publicly taking O’Neil on? Were there a number of situations of perceived lack of hustle, or is Marmol making an attempt to power the Cardinals to commerce an outfielder to create extra roster flexibility for himself?

Dan Szymborski: It’s arduous to say since I’m not *in* the clubhouse so not aware of every thing

Dan Szymborski: Though my basic perception is that even when it makes issues tougher for individuals in my career, from the workforce’s perspective, it’s uncommon that inner issues shouldn’t be inner

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t need Marmol to do something however take a non remark stance

North of the Border: Jose Berrios – what do?

Dan Szymborski: S orry

Dayton Moore Talking Head: Do you say “Goo-gull” or “Goog-ull”?

Dan Szymborski: The former

Wayne Threatzky: Scale of 1-10 (10 being perennial Cy Young contender), how do you’re feeling about Wesneski’s future?

Dan Szymborski: 6

RAY: is that this chat clocked like the brand new rule

Dan Szymborski: Ha!

Dan Szymborski: I attempt to reply questions in a short time

Dan Szymborski: Not as a result of I need to be inaccurate however the extra questions I reply, the less disillusioned individuals with unanswered questions.

Dan Szymborski: So I are typically biased in favor of questions that may be answered shortly. This isn’t an awesome format for asking questions that might require quarter-hour of labor to reply correctly

Twins Win: Yes it is just the primary week however the outcomes from the Twins rotation are incredible, particularly contemplating the previous accidents to Mahle and Maeda.  Top 5/10 rotation attainable or do accidents derail the season once more?

Dan Szymborski: I believe 10-15 is fairer as there’s some damage danger

Guest: You taking part in MLB The Show? I haven’t gotten it but as a result of it looks like they actually haven’t finished something new with RTTS. It might use an overhaul.

Dan Szymborski: Not this yr as I haven’t gotten a PS5

Dan Szymborski: Probably will someday this month now which you can simply buy them

Chip: I noticed loads of punditry saying that TOR would win the ALE on the again of their rotation over NYY. How many video games of Toronto’s pitching shenanigans will probably be sufficient for them to confess that that was a foolish projection?

Dan Szymborski: Well, a pair extra gothroughs and I’d be fearful

Dan Szymborski: But it depends upon the diploma

ROBOCOP: Well sh**…now I have to have one other baby simply so I can identify them Buttertooth

daro: does boston have it to be aggressive in 2-3 years?

Dan Szymborski: Sure. They’re not THAT dangerous a workforce

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes individuals discuss them like they’re the Reds or one thing

Alan: Team O’Neill or Team Marmol?

Dan Szymborski: I attempt to take a step again from issues like this

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t even think about myself on Team MLBPA through the lockout

Dan Szymborski: I can not communicate for each author on the market, however I do *not* think about myself an advocate for something apart from reality and logic.

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t assume I’m certified to make judgments on private issues like O’Neill and Marmol

Dan Szymborski: Nor do I believe anybody is fascinated with seeing that from me]

Chris from Catonsville: Should I be rooting for the O’s to advertise Westburg and/or Ortiz? That’s solely going to occur if Mateo and Urias don’t hit, and I really feel uncomfortable rooting in opposition to the laundry. How significantly better would the workforce realistically be with the wave of prospect INFers and when will they be up?  (not in April!)

Dan Szymborski: I’d choose them taking part in full time SOMEWHERE. Having them as much as sit isn’t useful

Dan Szymborski: The Frazier signing actually confused me

Most proficient: It may truly be Jackie Robinson given what number of sports he performed.

Dan Szymborski: AND BO JACKSON

SP assist: Wesneski or Pfaaft?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit extra assured than Pfaadt although for fantasy functions, Wesneski has the distinct benefit of already *being* within the rotation

Johnny two sneakers: You want a profile image with much less brow…Or extra hair

Dan Szymborski: I’m at all times had a excessive hair line and since I’ll be 45 in two months, that scenario isn’t going to enhance.

Dan Szymborski: On the plus facet, I haven’t had a single grey hair on the highest of my head

Dan Szymborski: If I let my beard develop out, I do get an occasional snow white hair

Dan Szymborski: and I get the occasional sensible white hair in my loopy previous man eyebrows

Dan Szymborski: Which are already extraordinarily blonde for me

Dan Szymborski: (I’m naturally type of reddish darkish blonde with my beard typically rising out as straight-up crimson)

Darin Ruf House: Is this the lightening spherical?  Yes, it have to be the lightening spherical.  OK, right here we go.  Please give us your 5 level plan for every MLB workforce on how they need to handle participant improvement over the following 5-10 years.

Dan Szymborski: That’s the molasses spherical

Pawnee = Oakland As Destination?: what would your stroll up music be?

Dan Szymborski: straightforward one!

Dan Szymborski:

Darin Ruf House: Was it simply that the MLB was appearing sooooo silly through the lockout that you just criticized them greater than the MLBPA?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. I attempted to be as honest as I might. If I can solely see the gamers’ pursuits and never the house owners’ pursuits, then I’m not absolutely doing my job

Farhandrew Zaidman: Can you give a 30 second schpeel in your Under for the Dodgers? I believe they’re at 96.5

Dan Szymborski: There’s vital draw back danger i nthe rotation

David: What did you consider G rayson yesterday?

Dan Szymborski: I believed he bought his shit collectively very nice after the primary inning

Barnlesbee Portugrazb III: Invention you need to see in actual life?

I’ll go first. Reverse bobbleheads… the heads keep nonetheless and its the our bodies that bobble!

Dan Szymborski: holodeck!

Darin Ruf House: Dan wouldn’t have a stroll up music.  He would run to the plate, like a bit of Charlie Hustle.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t like working even after I was youthful, largely in form and performed sports!

Dan Szymborski: I’d be extra of a Billy Saunter than a Charlie Hustle

Darin Ruf House: Pitch clock is working like gang busters, the shift ban and different new guidelines appear impartial to advantageous.  What further new on-the-field rule would you implement?

Dan Szymborski: Angel Hernandez Lava Pit

Hire Joe Morgan?: Sorry!  Methods of Rationality is a HP novel initially written as fan fiction by Eliezer Yudkowsky.  Premise is every thing is similar besides Harry was raised by a rationalist and enters Hogwarts with a grasp of the scientific methodology.  He proceeds to aim to know magic and issues proceed.  Awesomely.  I used to be subversively trying to get you to touch upon AI points.

Dan Szymborski: Ah

Dan Szymborski: Oh, Ohtani time machine proof. This is him arriving to signal his contract with the Angels.

Dan Szymborski:

Darin Ruf House: Do you put on hats?  You might pull off a Greek Fisherman’s hat or possibly Rerun’s beret from What’s Happening.

Dan Szymborski: often I’ll put on a trilby

Dan Szymborski: I’ve a paddy cap however I’ve type of gotten out of behavior of sporting it

Darin Ruf House: Let’s say the O’s stay a step underneath .500 till they promote on the deadline.  What does the common infield seem like on the finish of the yr?

Dan Szymborski: I actually need to see a Mountcastle-Westburg-Henderson-Mayo infield sooner or later!

Darin Ruf House: Chili!  No one has talked about chili!  (You don’t need to erode your model)

Mike: Holodeck could be the best factor ever.

Adgraphs: Why does this web site publish so few articles? None in any respect on Saturdays?

Dan Szymborski: We do 4-6 a day!

Dan Szymborski: We attempt to keep away from “shovelware” items.

Dan Szymborski: And everybody has weekends off besides in emergencies

Dan Szymborski: We don’t flood with dozens of articles like some web sites as a result of everybody will get paid. There’s no one working for publicity.

Guest: adgraphs is a troll. he’s requested that in chats earlier than.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I believed it was a severe query.

The 6ix: What constitutes an emergency?

Dan Szymborski: Like a HUGE commerce or damage or another information stuff

Dan Szymborski: And, after all, Laurila’s Sunday notes

Insert Witty Name Here: What’s the most effective dad joke you bought?

Dan Szymborski: I solely know childless loner jokes

Dan Szymborski: And on THAT notice, it’s time for me to go out for one more week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!