Shouldered with the needle-threading activity of concurrently slicing payroll and rebuilding a pitching employees thinned out by the departure of a number of key free brokers, the Padres traded celebrity Juan Soto and Gold Glove-caliber middle fielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees on Wednesday in trade for 3 massive league arms — righties Michael King, Randy Vásquez, and Jhony Brito — in addition to a fourth who is sort of prepared for primetime in prospect Drew Thorpe and backup catcher Kyle Higashioka. Ben Clemens did a full evaluation on the influence that the 25-year-old Soto, one among baseball’s greatest hitters, can have on the Yankees. I’m going to dive deeper into the arms headed to the Gaslamp District and discuss how the Padres would possibly go about ending their offseason to-do listing.
Most readers are most likely conscious {that a} mandate to shed payroll was a driving issue for this commerce from San Diego’s perspective. The membership’s sudden shift in monetary course occurred within the wake of the dying of proprietor Peter Seidler. The commerce additionally addresses a big portion of the Padres on-field baseball wants, although it additionally creates huge new holes of their lineup and defensive alignment the place Soto and Grisham was. The Friars might want to fill or improve at the very least two or three spots of their currently-projected lineup in the event that they need to compete with the defending NL champion Diamondbacks and reigning division-winning Dodgers in 2024, they usually most likely additionally want one other beginning pitcher or two to spherical out their rotation. Shedding Soto’s wage seemingly created some area to take action, however given the Padres’ monetary constraints, maybe not sufficient to unravel all of those issues through free company. There could also be inner candidates, particularly on the place participant facet, who can contribute on the league minimal wage in 2024; I’ll get to these prospects later.
Let’s begin with who got here again to San Diego and the way they match into an overhauled pitching employees. Prior to the commerce, our Padres rotation projection regarded tough. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish had been fortified by 27-year-old knuckleballer Matt Waldron, and walk-prone MLB virgin Jay Groome. The free-agent departures of Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who pitched a mixed 570 innings in 2023, left the Padres in dire want of influence and depth to have a useful and aggressive pitching employees in 2024. Even if one believes (as I do) that prospect Jairo Iriarte is gifted sufficient to make a significant near-term influence, the Padres nonetheless badly wanted so as to add a number of pitchers to their massive league employees. This commerce will get them many of the means there, as all 4 of the pitchers acquired for Soto may fairly be anticipated to pitch within the massive leagues subsequent season.
The headliner within the return is King, who spent most of his 4 years of MLB service time as a multi-inning reliever earlier than sliding into the Yankees’ rotation late final August. He regarded implausible after the transfer — 38.1 innings, 33 hits, 9 walks, 48 strikeouts, a 1.88 ERA — and whereas he hasn’t had the chance to show that he can maintain this type of efficiency over a full season of starter’s innings (his 104 innings in 2023 was simply a career-high), he’s gifted sufficient to melt the blow of dropping Snell and others. Our Esteban Rivera wrote a definitive and thorough breakdown of King’s arsenal and development towards the tip of the season. In brief, as long as he has the stamina for it, he’s going to be an influence man. He’s an All-Star–caliber expertise who elevates San Diego’s rotation again into a good place and is likely to be the Padres’ greatest starter subsequent 12 months.
Is the Padres’ rotation, on this second, as nasty or deep as both Arizona’s or Los Angeles’ projected rotations? Not fairly, but when issues click on rapidly for each Iriarte and the newly-acquired Thorpe, by midseason it is going to be very shut. King has amassed 4 years of service and can seemingly have very inexpensive arb 12 months salaries as a result of a lot of his profession up to now was spent in a non-closing aid capability. He’ll be a free agent after the 2025 season.
Before I discuss Thorpe and Vásquez, who’re each nonetheless rookie-eligible and due to this fact technically prospects, let’s discuss Brito, who graduated from rookie standing in 2023. He is a good one-for-one alternative for Martinez, who’s now a Red, as a changeup-heavy swingman who pitched 90 innings in 2023, with half of his appearances begins and half in aid. While Brito’s 96-mph heater doesn’t miss as many bats as you would possibly hope, in a short-start or long-relief function, he can deploy his changeup a ton to maintain hitters at bay. He has 4 pitches, throws a ton of strikes, will get an above-average charge of floor balls, and is a good slot in an extended aid and swingman function very similar to Martinez has been.
Vásquez pitched within the massive leagues final 12 months however not sufficient to graduate from rookie standing. He was a spin-rate sleeper close to the underside of the Yankees’ prospect listing for a number of years, then broke out in 2021 when he had a two-tick velocity bump, climbed three ranges of the minors, and put himself on the doorstep of the large leagues. Like Brito, he labored about 120 complete innings mixed between his minor league and main league outings in 2023, pitching as a starter at Triple-A Scranton however in a variable function for the Yankees. The high-effort nature of his supply, his lack of dimension, and his below-average command all put him within the long-term aid bucket a little bit extra definitively than Brito.
Vásquez sits 94–95 mph and has a four-pitch combine headlined by his trademark breaking ball, which has wowed scouts for the previous half decade or so. In a way, he’s the alternative for Lugo, one other curveball-heavy righty who spent his total profession on the starter/reliever line earlier than the Padres appropriately predicted he’d be capable to begin. Vásquez is simply so tightly wound and mechanically violent that I’ m not snug projecting him as a long-term starter. Because of San Diego’s wants and the flexibleness that his two remaining possibility years present, I’d anticipate him to be sixth or seventh on the Padres’ Opening Day rotation depth chart and be up and down as wanted all year long. Once his choices run dry, he’s more likely to shift right into a extra everlasting aid function. Both he and Brito are 25 years previous and underneath group management for the subsequent half decade.
For an extended whereas I’ve been greater on Thorpe than anybody who isn’t his household or agent — possibly even too excessive. I had him ranked a full 40 spots forward of the place he was picked on 2022 draft evening, and I left that grade on him after I wrote up the Yankees system over the last listing cycle. Pitchers with changeups nearly as good as Thorpe’s and who throw as many strikes as he does are usually high-floor propositions who pitch endlessly. His low-80s changeup has a ton of tail, he embodies mechanical repeatability which helps him command it, and his ultra-short arm stroke helps trick hitters into seeing fastball out of his hand. The effectiveness of Thorpe’s slider (extra common by way of uncooked stuff) and fastball (below-average at simply 90–92 mph) are enabled by his exact really feel for location.
The Yankees coaxed a little bit extra warmth out of Thorpe (who sat 88–91 in faculty) throughout his time there, however not sufficient to provide him influence velocity. He will throw the occasional cutter or curveball in an apparent fastball rely to maintain hitters guessing, however these pitches don’t at the moment have any extra utility than that, although I believe the cutter finally will. This is a really polished 23-year-old who, given San Diego’s tendency to push prospects rapidly, is more likely to seize maintain of an MLB rotation spot within the upcoming season. We’re speaking about plus command of a plus-plus changeup right here; he shall be an offseason Top 100 prospect right here at FanGraphs.
Lastly, Higashioka will function the backup catcher behind Luis Campusano. The Yankees had six catchers on their 40-man roster previous to the commerce. With Gary Sánchez and Austin Nola each free brokers, San Diego was left skinny at catcher. Numerous groups are skinny at catcher, however the free-agent market isn’t precisely teeming with nice choices, and golf equipment who need to play on the prime of that market are most likely going to should cough up {dollars} that the Padres can’t afford to spend on a backup. Acquiring the 33-year-old southern California native permits them to patch that gap of their roster with out utilizing free company.
So what do the Padres do subsequent? They badly want a middle fielder now that Grisham is gone. There are rumors they’re focusing on Korean outfielder Jung-hoo Lee in free company; you may learn my scouting report on him right here. He will seemingly want time to regulate to MLB pitching a lot in the identical means that Ha-Seong Kim did, however over time, he initiatives as an above-average defender in middle with plus really feel for contact, although it will take a swing change, elevated physicality, or each for him to hit for energy over right here. I ponder if no matter overseas advertising and marketing windfall the Padres would possibly get pleasure from on account of having possibly the 2 greatest and most well-known Korean gamers in baseball on their group on the similar time would enable them to hit the gasoline on paying Lee greater than different groups.
There are actually solely three or 4 good-gloved middle discipline free brokers who I’d contemplate wherever close to San Diego’s worth vary. The Padres drafted Cody Bellinger’s brother Cole out of highschool, and I’m positive Logan White is shut with the household, however I can’t think about they discover a option to pay him. I’d guess in the event that they requested Fernando Tatis Jr. to play middle discipline that he’d discover a option to do it nicely; he appears athletically able to absolutely anything if given sufficient time to regulate.
A middle discipline addition or Tatis transfer would enable the Padres to deal with discovering nook bats. Our present roster projection for them has substandard choices at most nook positions. Jake Cronenworth’s defensive versatility implies that the Padres could be open to hitters from nearly any nook spot both through commerce or free company. Internal choices not mirrored in our present roster projection embrace top-15 prospect Jackson Merrill, who started to see time at non-shortstop positions final 12 months; outfield prospect Jakob Marsee, who crushed Fall League; and utilityman Graham Pauley, a scaled-down Corey Seager swing clone who has no place.
There’s nonetheless work to be achieved right here if the Padres are going to compete in 2024, they usually gained’t be capable to recreate Soto’s manufacturing with anybody participant. But in addition they haven’t painted themselves right into a nook; you may clearly see some avenues that they will traverse to get there, and it’s nonetheless reasonably early within the offseason.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com