Sonny Gray Is Leveling Up

Pitching is difficult. There are so many layers to it, together with mechanics, sequencing, proprioception, supination/pronation… the checklist goes on and on. Depending on a participant’s character and knack for together with analytical info of their studying and growth course of, digesting this info could be a battle. Over the years, we’ve seen Sonny Gray progress by way of this expertise with a number of groups; now in Minnesota, it looks as if he’s hitting his peak. As David Laurila wrote, Sonny Gray is evolving as a pitcher.

That interview that David performed with Gray is a should learn. Having the participant’s perspective on how they’ve thought by way of their very own adjustments and growth expertise helps offers route to an analyst, and it’s clear in that interview that Gray’s aim is to have a pitch that strikes in nearly any route. As any person who doesn’t have overwhelming fastball velocity (sixteenth percentile), it’s essential that he stays unpredictable and misleading. That hasn’t been an issue for him up to now, however this yr he has leveled up his diversification. Below is a plot of his pitch motion chart in 2023 (high) versus 2022 (backside):

Last season, there have been primarily two tiers of separation: fastballs in a single space, breaking balls in one other. For probably the most half, there isn’t a lot unfavorable mixing occurring inside both pitch group. The two-seamer has distinct horizontal separation from the four-seamer, and the curveball has vertical separation from the sweeper. The horizontal distribution of the sweeper is on the tail ends of the curveball; Gray manipulated the pitch to have kind of sweep than the curveball to make sure that separation. This yr, he has taken his 2022 arsenal, improved upon it, and added two simpler pitches within the cutter and changeup.

In this interview with Rob Friedman, Gray goes into deep element in regards to the form of every of his pitches and why he thought it might be precious to incorporate two new ones, notably the cutter, in his repertoire, and in regards to the worth of his cutter serving as an in-between for the 2 fastballs and two breaking balls. From the hitter’s viewpoint, doing that complicates attacking or locking in on one zone or velocity. If you’re a left-handed hitter sitting on a four-seam fastball on the internal third, a cutter might transfer in and jam your barrel or, if it has somewhat extra vertical depth, slide proper underneath. The identical thought might be utilized for anticipating breaking balls; the cutter can keep up and freeze you rather than having the extent of drop or sweep of a curveball or sweeper. In addition, the cutter velocity is just some ticks quicker than the 2 breaking balls and some ticks slower than the 2 fastballs.

Gray has has carried out nearly every part doable to guarantee he maintains deception. His launch factors are constant. He has a number of layers of motion each vertically and horizontally. He can range velocity and motion inside a given pitch. If you have been to construct a pitcher who doesn’t have nice velocity however can spin the heck out of the ball, it is a darn good blueprint.

It’s necessary to see precisely how Gray makes use of these pitches throughout the context of an at-bat. You can have all this motion and velocity range, however you continue to must command every pitch and sequence accurately. I’ll begin with an at-bat in opposition to a right-handed hitter.

Pitch 1 (0-0 depend, four-seamer)

Pitch 2 (0-1 depend, cutter)

Pitch 3 (0-2 depend, curveball)

Pitch 4 (0-2 depend, sweeper)

Pitch 5 (1-2 depend, sweeper)

Gray has gotten his cutter utilization as much as 17.6% on the yr; it is best to count on to see it just one or two occasions in an at-bat. But this at-bat in opposition to Yan Gomes is an ideal instance of how the pitch permits him to progress with a four-seamer by way of to a sweeper. Gomes didn’t pull the set off on the higher third four-seamer however did on a cutter that had sufficient separation to overlook his barrel. Gray adopted up with a curveball out of the identical tunnel, and Gomes chopped it on the bottom for a foul ball.

At this level, Gomes had didn’t differentiate his swing sufficient to get his barrel to any of those pitches, and Gray nonetheless had the sweeper in his again pocket. The first he threw was backed up out of the zone, however the second was positioned in the identical tunnel as the opposite three pitches, and Gomes swung too early on it. Again, the cutter isn’t the primary weapon right here; it’s one other layer to maintain Gomes guessing.

Now, right here is an instance of how Gray used the pitch in opposition to a lefty:

Pitch 1 (0-0 depend, curveball)

Pitch 2 (1-0 depend, cutter)

Pitch 3 (1-1 depend, curveball)

Pitch 4 (1-2 depend, two-seamer)

This is considered one of my favourite sequences from any pitcher all yr. After beginning with a curveball out of the zone in opposition to Brandon Belt, Gray adopted up with a cutter that stayed up. Belt was clearly ready for a breaking ball of some type based mostly on his timing and swing path, however the cutter received above his barrel. Because Gray was in a position to maintain the pitch within the zone, Belt’s eye degree was modified, resulting in him chasing the subsequent curveball beneath the zone. With a 1–2 depend and two unhealthy swings from Belt, Gray might’ve gone in a number of instructions however finally opted for a front-door working two-seamer on the knees. Why? Because Belt had confirmed Gray that his swing was geared for middle-of-the-zone loft; horizontal entry low was unhittable for that swing path if Gray might execute it, and that he did.

Gray’s -5 run worth on his cutter is eighth within the league, proper behind pitchers with established elite cutters like Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Marcus Stroman, and Camilo Doval. To add such an efficient pitch — a .231 batting common in opposition to, a .233 wOBA, and it doesn’t have unhealthy splits, with a .153 wOBA and -2.4 run worth versus lefties — into your arsenal this rapidly is a career-changing growth. All that, and I haven’t talked about Gray’s changeup utilization and effectiveness up to now (-1 run worth). Having a sixth pitch with a .125 batting common in opposition to is a premium not many different pitchers in baseball have, even when you simply sometimes flash it (and Gray has thrown it simply 6.4% of the time).

Gray is on tempo for the best fWAR of his profession and is a mere 0.4 wins behind the AL chief, Kevin Gausman. There could also be some regression coming contemplating he has solely given up one house run all season, however that may be a ability he’s displayed his complete profession in any case. If he can maintain this up and keep wholesome, he’s in a for a profession yr.