What makes you content? Among the issues that carry a smile to my face, speaking about catching is up there. I’ll search for any excuse to put in writing, discuss, or take into consideration catcher protection. I’m a type of those that has missed catching bullpens since I’ve stopped enjoying usually. For these of you who have no idea, that’s not regular! So every time Statcast drops new details about catcher protection, I’ve to put in writing about it.
Just a few weeks again, I lined some catchers who had been throwing at a charge that steered further defensive worth relative to their friends within the new, extra aggressive stolen base setting. Soon thereafter, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello revealed a brand new stat, Caught Stealing Above Average, to the general public, and that Baseball Savant would roll out a leaderboard that may provide a extra goal take a look at throwing out runners relative to the normal caught stealing stat. You can try the total leaderboard right here.
There are a number of elements considered for Statcast’s mannequin that attempt to even the enjoying area in the case of throwing out runners — variables like pitcher supply pace, a runner’s lead and soar, and extra. Evening all of these out supplies extra perception on how some catchers are extra deserving of outs than others. Typically, I’d spotlight the catchers who’ve excelled at throwing out runners, however to emphasise the worth of this statistic, I as a substitute wish to take a look at those that have been unfortunate this yr and final regardless of constant sturdy throws, in addition to different catchers the place the tendencies are regarding. The first of this group is anticipated however notable nonetheless:
J.T. Realmuto (1 Catcher Caught Stealing Above Average in 2023, no. 7)
Base stealers have been working like wild towards the Phillies this season, and it’s made for some complicated statistics for J.T. Realmuto. Out of his first 17 stolen base makes an attempt of second base, he’s solely caught 5 runners. If you bear in mind this piece again in November, you recognize Realmuto has one of many strongest arms and quickest pop occasions within the sport; if anyone ought to be throwing out most runners, it’d be him. But this yr, he’s solely working a 29% caught-stealing charge, partially because of performs just like the one above, the place his pitcher was simply barely too sluggish to house. He has nonetheless been higher than his anticipated charge of twenty-two%, however his bar is way larger than any catcher within the league.
Realmuto’s 2022 monitor file is much more spectacular than this yr’s. If you mix all of final season’s makes an attempt with this yr, his CS% sits at 48%, with an estimated CS% of 23%. His laser-quick pop time makes up for his slower-to-the-plate pitchers. Realmuto is elite at throwing, framing, and blocking; no one else could make that declare to this extent. We are watching top-of-the-line defensive catchers of his technology.
Shea Langeliers (2 Catcher Caught Stealing Above Average in 2023, no. 5)
Not many issues are going proper for the A’s, however Shea Langeliers has impressed on either side of the ball. With a 109 wRC+ fueled by a .244 ISO, he’s off to a stable begin with the bat, and each his swing and energy are promising. On the defensive facet of the ball, he has averaged a 1.95 pop time however has been a little bit unfortunate with throwing out runners, with a CS% in his first 19 makes an attempt to second base of 32% however an estimated mark of 24% — an analogous discrepancy as Realmuto. On this throw, he was as excellent as you may be, however his pitcher was dragging his ft to get the ball house, and Tony Kemp misplaced his glove on the tag anyhow.
While the pop time isn’t elite on common, Langeliers has confirmed that he’s correct sufficient to throw runners out if given the chance. It’s a type of conditions the place he isn’t essentially a prime tier thrower and subsequently doesn’t have a lot room for error if his pitchers don’t minimize him some slack or if his throw is simply barely off line. To me, Langeliers is the kind of catcher who affords a glimpse into the long run. With some automated ball-strike system inevitably coming to MLB, his profile is one that may completely transition to that new actuality, as he’s solely common at blocking and framing however is barely above common at throwing. Combine that with above-league-average offense, and you’ve got your self an ideal prototype for the potential new catching setting.
Martín Maldonado (2 Catcher Caught Stealing Above Average in 2023, no. 4)
If it weren’t for Realmuto, Martín Maldonado would discover himself atop the brand new throwing leaderboard from 2022 by way of at the moment, with seven CS Above Average. This yr isn’t any totally different, as he holds a 33% CS% regardless of a mere 14% estimated charge. The pitchers in Houston aren’t serving to him, however he’s nabbing runners regardless. Case in level: the play above, the place Cristian Javier’s large leg kick and crazy arm took up an excessive amount of time, undermining Maldonado’s pinpoint throw. But even when he isn’t catching runners, he’s making it shut.
Over the previous few years, I’ve gone backwards and forwards on the Astros’ resolution to make use of Maldonado as their main catcher. He is an unimaginable fielder however is constantly one of many worst hitters within the sport. As his framing expertise have undergone a slight regression in comparison with earlier in his profession, it’s statistically unclear if it’s value protecting him because the mainstay. But the extra knowledge on Maldonado’s elite throwing and blocking in the previous couple of months reminds us why he’s the lead catcher in Houston. Combine that along with his glorified intangibles, and you’ll simply perceive why he has cemented himself because the starter regardless of the shortage of offense.
This new info can work within the different route, too. Sometimes catchers are unfortunate as a result of their pitchers put them in a gap, and different occasions they are often even worse than anticipated. Unfortunately, there are some promising younger catchers who fall into the latter class. Keibert Ruiz is 2-for-17 (12%) to begin the yr regardless of a 23% estimated CS%. His plus-2.00 pop time is the principle cause for this. If his framing continues to pattern within the unsuitable route alongside along with his arm, he’ll should be an above-average hitter to stay as much as his prospect pedigree. Francisco Álvarez faces an analogous dilemma, going 0-for-12 to begin the yr. His estimated CS% was solely 12%, however his throws haven’t been aggressive regardless.
For some time, catching was a semi-mystery; we knew who had rocket arms and who didn’t. Now, we’ve details about framing, blocking, and throwing that helps us work out the true worth of a gifted defensive catcher. It’s an thrilling time to be a catching fanatic.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com