On April 10 at Citizens Bank Park, Brandon Marsh stepped as much as the plate within the backside of the fifth inning, seeking to prolong a 7-0 Phillies lead.
With runners on first and second and no person out, Marsh took a fastball effectively exterior from Marlins left-handed reliever Devin Smeltzer. Smeltzer’s second pitch was a sweeper simply off the plate, and Marsh took it for ball two. Then he turned on a 2-0 fastball, ripping the pitch into the hole at 105.6 mph for a two-run double.
It was only one three-pitch at-bat, however it was a have a look at every thing Marsh has improved on to this point this yr. Showing off a brand new batting stance and armed with a brand new method, the Phillies middle fielder has taken the following step. A month into the 2023 season, he’s been amongst MLB’s best possible hitters.
Through Friday’s video games, Marsh boasted a triple-slash line of .346/.427/.679 — the third-best OPS of any certified Major League hitter. He’s additionally been the Phillies’ finest participant, main the staff in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement and tying for nineteenth within the Majors in that class.
“It’s fairly cool, man,” Marsh mentioned. “It’s cool knowing that the work — we get up, go grind in the offseason, even when you didn’t want to half the time — is paying off.”
For the Phillies, it couldn’t have occurred at a greater time.
With Bryce Harper but to return and Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber beginning comparatively sluggish, Marsh has led the way in which in retaining the Phillies afloat throughout an up-and-down April.
Here’s what Marsh has completed to take his hitting to the following stage — and whether or not his modifications are for actual.
Improved plate self-discipline
Asked about swinging on the first pitch a lot much less usually in 2023, Marsh registered shock.
“I’m swinging less at first pitches?” he requested. “Like the actual stat?”
Marsh won’t have observed, however the numbers don’t lie.
In 2023, his first full season with the Phillies after developing with the Angels, he’s gone after the primary pitch simply 12 instances in 89 plate appearances — 13.5% of the time. In his first two seasons, Marsh swung on the first pitch at a 29.4% clip.
“I suppose simply actually being selective the place I need to go,” Marsh mentioned. “If I don’t see it where I like it, the worst it’s going to be is 0-1. You don’t want to be 0-1, but if you get fooled on a pitch, you want it to be early on rather than later. So I feel like I’m going to be really selective to start.”
The change is one in every of many Marsh has made in his plate self-discipline — one of many largest causes for his breakout 2023 season.
Marsh is swinging and lacking much less — simply 23.1% of the time this season, down from a 30.5% mark earlier than this yr. He’s chasing pitches out of the zone much less. He’s making extra contact on pitches within the zone, too.
Marsh’s plate self-discipline, 2021-22 vs. 2023
Zone swing %: 64.8% vs. 61.0%
Zone contact %: 77.9% vs. 83.8%
Chase %: 30.1% vs. 24.9%
First pitch swing %: 29.4% vs. 13.5%
Whiff %: 30.5% vs. 23.1%
Only three hitters have completed extra injury than Marsh on pitches over the guts of the plate, an space during which he’s hitting .471 with an 1.118 slugging proportion — the second-best slugging clip within the league.
Marsh’s selectivity can be seen in a statistic so simple as his stroll price. He drew free passes simply 6.5% of the time from 2021-22; this season, he’s strolling at a 12.4% clip.
Marsh mentioned this season is nearly as good as he has felt seeing the ball, and his numbers again it up.
“Just really the routine we’ve got going right now and before the game preparation, I just really like where my head’s at, how I’m connecting with the hitting coaches, the whole staff really,” he mentioned. “I similar to the place we’re at; trusting the method.”
Changes within the field
After buying Marsh, a former high prospect, from the Angels on the 2022 Trade Deadline, Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long observed the problem instantly: Marsh was constantly late on fastballs.
Game tape confirmed it, and the numbers proved it: In a season and a half with the Angels, Marsh hit simply .233 (40 for 172) in opposition to four-seam fastballs with a .372 slugging proportion. (Since 2021, MLB hitters are batting .255 with a .444 slugging proportion in opposition to four-seamers.)
“In his case, the data backs up what you see, because you could see him get to his front side late, and you look at the data, and it confirms that,” Phillies supervisor Rob Thomson mentioned. “So then you look for objectives to try to make him better.”
The Phillies have completed that. Long’s work with Marsh has resulted in vital modifications which have helped the 25-year-old outfielder get his head round extra shortly on fastballs. Marsh’s stance itself is totally different; he has gone from standing upright on the plate to extra of a crouch. The Phillies scrapped a toe-tap Marsh had used with the Angels.
Long mentioned the modifications are designed to again up Marsh’s contact level with the baseball, and to this point, it’s labored to perfection. Marsh is crushing fastballs in 2023, posting a triple-slash line of .344/.382/.813 in opposition to four-seamers. That slugging proportion ranks twentieth within the Majors this season.
“He’s completed a very nice job of fixing his swing to the purpose the place it’s explosive, it’s tight, it’s compact, it’s highly effective,” Long mentioned. “He’s in a better position, so it allows him a little more time to make decisions. Before he didn’t have that time. He’s not moving as much. His body is in the ideal position to hit.”
Learning lefties
Solving left-handed pitching is the following step in Marsh’s maturation into a whole hitter.
With the Angels, Marsh was within the lineup 35 of 49 instances (70%) in opposition to left-handed starters, however he hit simply .227 with one double and two dwelling runs in 150 at-bats whereas hanging out practically 40 % of the time.
The Phillies have been reluctant to show Marsh free in opposition to lefties — he’s began solely eight of 15 video games in opposition to southpaw starters and simply three of seven this season — however Marsh has stepped up his sport in opposition to same-side pitching considerably.
Marsh is hitting .348 with a .783 slugging proportion in 25 plate appearances vs. lefties. He already has 4 doubles — twice his whole with the Angels — and two homers in opposition to left-handed pitching this season.
Keep enjoying like that, and Marsh will see his title seem on the lineup card in opposition to left-handed starters way more usually. Make no mistake: That’s by design.
“This offseason, working on lefties and that angle was definitely a big priority, just because I wanted the guys to be able to rely on me for 162, not just 120, you know?” Marsh mentioned. “We actually labored very laborious on that side of the sport.”
Will it final?
As with any scorching begin, the identical query arises: Is Marsh’s success sustainable?
Keeping up this stage of play, at the very least, seems unlikely. Over the previous 10 full seasons, solely two hitters — Aaron Judge in 2022 and Harper in 2015 — have put up an OPS increased than Marsh’s present mark of 1.105 when all was mentioned and completed.
Marsh’s .469 batting common on balls in play (BABIP) will come down with time; the league common is .296 to this point this season. Marsh, although, has at all times had a excessive BABIP, proudly owning a profession mark of .386; hitters with pace and people who hit the ball laborious have a tendency to provide increased BABIP figures.
Statistics primarily based on common launch angle and exit velocity say Marsh has overperformed to this point this season. The hole between his .465 weighted on-base common and his .349 anticipated wOBA is the second-biggest for any certified hitter.
But Marsh has made simple progress. His xwOBA was simply .287 in 2022; in his rookie season, it was .324. The causes are evident: Marsh’s new stance within the batter’s field is paying dividends. The tweaks to his method on the plate have made him higher. He’s turn out to be a risk in opposition to left-handed pitching.
Of course, solely time will inform whether or not these enhancements are right here to remain.
“It’s a great feeling, but we’ve got a lot more ball to play,” Marsh mentioned. “So we have simply received to maintain going.”
Paul Casella contributed reporting to this story.
Content Source: www.mlb.com