It’s August, which implies it is the start of the stretch run. The Home Run Derby and All-Star Game have handed, the Trade Deadline is right this moment, and playoff implication-laden baseball is taking heart stage.
It would possibly really feel like if a crew isn’t in playoff place proper now, it might be time to begin worrying. But is that true? For groups hoping to win the division, it’s positively getting near crunch time.
Let’s check out what it means to be in first place in a division coming into August and what the playoff discipline might seem like. Note, all stats under exclude the shortened 2020 season and as an alternative have a look at full seasons for the influence and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first place (or not be there)
Since 1996 — the primary full season with at the least one Wild Card in every league — 113 of 156 eventual division champions held at the least a share of their division lead coming into August 1. That’s 72 % of division winners.
Take be aware, Orioles, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Reds and Dodgers followers — these are the groups that presently lead their divisions.
Last season, three of the six division leaders on August 1 went on to win their divisions. In the American League, the Yankees and Astros every gained their divisions, whereas the Twins, who led the AL Central coming into August, missed the postseason solely. In the NL, the Dodgers gained their division, however the Mets and Brewers, who led the East and Central coming into August, respectively, didn’t. The Mets had been a Wild Card, however the Brewers missed the playoffs.
Since 1996, 15 of the 26 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions coming into August. Before the Astros final yr, the final winner in a full season to take action was the 2018 Red Sox.
One factor that stands out shortly on the standings web page: each division chief besides the NL East’s Braves leads by fewer than three video games. This is simply the second time for the reason that cut up to 6 divisions that as many as 5 groups had been inside fewer than three video games coming into August. It additionally occurred in 2011, additionally with 5 of the six.
Four of the division leads are fewer than two video games. That’s essentially the most such division leads coming into August on this span. In the aforementioned 2011 season, the 5 leads in query had been all both two and a half or two video games.
The AL East and AL Central
We’ve coated the truth that the AL East might be traditionally robust, however it bears a recap right here. The division has a mixed .562 profitable proportion, which might be the best by a division in a single season. The present file for a five-team division? .541 by the 2022 AL East.
All 5 AL East groups are above .500. If you’re curious, the most recent right into a season that a whole division has been above .500 was the NL East in 2005, in keeping with the Elias Sports Bureau. All 5 groups had been over .500 via October 1, the second-to-last day of the season. The Nationals then misplaced their finale to complete 81-81.
On the flip facet, the Twins lead the Central at 54-53, a .505 profitable proportion. The lowest profitable proportion by a division winner in a full season was .506, by the 82-80 Padres within the 2005 NL West.
Of this yr’s present division leaders coming into August, every has had at the least a share of that lead coming into August at the least as soon as since 2016, besides the Reds – who had been final on this spot in 2012. The Twins, Rangers, Braves and Dodgers have every gained their divisions at the least as soon as since 2016. The Reds final did so in 2012, the Orioles in ‘14.
October is shortly drawing nearer, however there’s nonetheless loads of baseball left to be performed. But followers of the six division leaders can take some consolation in figuring out that traditionally, nearly three quarters of these groups have gone on to win their divisions. And for followers of groups that aren’t in playoff place, there’s nonetheless loads of hope — whereas 72% of those groups go on to win their divisions, which means 28% don’t.
Now, all of us get to observe and see what occurs.
Content Source: www.mlb.com