Just a few years in the past, nobody would have believed you when you instructed them that Brandon Nimmo would get $162 million in free company. That hustling man on the Mets? How many tens of millions? I don’t know whether or not it’s the try-hard-ness or the walk-heavy form of his manufacturing, however his rise to prominence and subsequent nine-figure payday elicited extra “wow he got what?” responses and raised eyebrows than any marquee free agent in current historical past, save presumably Xander Bogaerts’ cope with the Padres. Well, the joke’s on these eyebrow raisers, as a result of Nimmo is likely one of the greatest gamers in baseball this 12 months, and he’s doing it by being as Nimmo as he’s ever been.
What does that imply? I’m glad you requested. For me, the core Nimmo skillset is getting on base with out placing the ball in play. He may do it by strolling. He may do it by sporting one on the elbow (or, let’s be reasonable, elbow pad). However he handles it, although, his most constant and bankable talent is juicing up the bases for the Mets’ bashers and boppers to drive him residence.
In that sense, this season is simply enterprise as traditional:
Brandon Nimmo, Free Bases by Year
| Year | BB% | HBP% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 15.3% | 0.9% | 16.2% |
| 2018 | 15.0% | 4.1% | 19.1% |
| 2019 | 18.1% | 2.0% | 20.1% |
| 2020 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 17.4% |
| 2021 | 14.0% | 1.3% | 15.3% |
| 2022 | 10.5% | 2.4% | 12.9% |
| 2023 | 14.7% | 1.7% | 16.4% |
All these free bases add up. Nimmo bought a cup of espresso within the majors in 2016, however his first actual taking part in time was in 2017. Since then, he’s seventh in baseball in on-base proportion, simply behind plate self-discipline legend Joey Votto.
While Nimmo will get greater than his justifiable share of HBPs, the overwhelming majority of his non-contact prowess comes right down to a superlative batting eye. Put merely, he doesn’t chase; over that very same 2017-to-now window, he has the Thirteenth-lowest chase price within the sport, in a useless warmth with Mike Trout.
This 12 months, Nimmo has taken his wonderful batting eye into overdrive. As an enormous fan of hitters realizing they don’t have to swing so usually, I’m going to take pleasure in strolling by means of every of those statistics one after the other. It’s price savoring such a pleasant strategy. First, Nimmo has by no means swung at many first pitches, even within the strike zone, and that has solely accelerated this 12 months:
First Pitch Swing Rates by Year
| Year | Swing% | Zone Swing% |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22.5% | 34.8% |
| 2018 | 29.2% | 43.4% |
| 2019 | 28.0% | 44.7% |
| 2020 | 31.4% | 50.4% |
| 2021 | 29.5% | 45.5% |
| 2022 | 30.9% | 43.4% |
| 2023 | 23.3% | 37.7% |
When he will get forward within the rely, he by no means chases, although he’s prepared to swing at pitches in his wheelhouse:
Ahead-in-Count Swing Rates by Year
| Year | Zone Swing% | Chase% |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 65.7% | 12.4% |
| 2018 | 60.1% | 13.6% |
| 2019 | 68.2% | 17.0% |
| 2020 | 63.8% | 18.7% |
| 2021 | 62.2% | 9.7% |
| 2022 | 59.9% | 16.3% |
| 2023 | 59.2% | 10.5% |
Even when he will get to a two-strike rely, he’s been superb at shedding the unhealthy pitches. This 12 months, he’s turn out to be much more adept at providing on the good ones:
Two-Strike Swing Rates by Year
| Year | Zone Swing% | Chase% |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 81.7% | 15.8% |
| 2018 | 85.4% | 22.4% |
| 2019 | 77.8% | 26.3% |
| 2020 | 90.6% | 19.4% |
| 2021 | 89.4% | 21.0% |
| 2022 | 91.3% | 28.9% |
| 2023 | 98.1% | 25.4% |
Hey, why not, let’s preserve going. Nimmo has seen 24 changeups outdoors the strike zone this 12 months. He’s swung at precisely three. Changeups was an equalizer for righties dealing with Nimmo, however that hasn’t been the case for a number of years now. He simply spits on them — or, in the event that they’re within the strike zone, punishes them. He’s working a 75% swing price on in-zone changeups, and he’s heating up: on every of his final swings, he’s hit the ball 100 mph or extra.
Oh yeah: Nimmo has just a little pop, too. I do know I’ve been waxing poetic about his means to not swing, however he’s not a kind of patience-and-nothing-else varieties. He averages 16 homers per 600 plate appearances, and his uncooked energy is even a bit higher than that, although he places the ball on the bottom too continuously to have sterling anticipated numbers on contact:
Contact Quality by Year
| Year | Maximum EV | Percentile | xwOBACON | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 109.9 | 75 | .434 | 86 |
| 2018 | 110.9 | 79 | .405 | 76 |
| 2019 | 109.9 | 70 | .380 | 54 |
| 2020 | 106.9 | 39 | .381 | 51 |
| 2021 | 111.5 | 80 | .380 | 57 |
| 2022 | 111.9 | 80 | .361 | 54 |
| 2023 | 111.9 | 86 | .404 | 69 |
This is simply who Nimmo is. He waits you out. He’ll swing when you power him to, and he’ll even swing when you simply pound the strike zone to keep away from his walks. Throw him 4 balls, and he’ll dash to first base like he’s being chased. That’s what he’s all the time executed, and what he’s persevering with to do proper now.
I want I had one thing extra fascinating to say than “this is just who Brandon Nimmo is.” I want that he had made some sweeping change that turned him from good to nice in a single day. Heck, I want he’d made some sweeping change that had little web impact however was fascinating. That’s not the story right here, although. The story is that ready to your pitch and attempting to clobber it’s a fairly good plan.
If you’re a skeptic, you may rightly level out that Nimmo is working a certainly unsustainable .372 BABIP to date this 12 months. You’d be proper. I’d level out in flip, nevertheless, that given how arduous he’s hitting the ball — his 51.9% hard-hit price is the perfect of his profession and within the 92nd percentile throughout baseball — Statcast thinks he ought to be slugging .466 to date this season based mostly on the standard of his contact. That extra-base pop greater than compensates for the misplaced singles you may anticipate to see because the 12 months rolls on; as such, his wOBA and xwOBA are virtually precisely similar, simply with fortunate singles swapping for unfortunate hard-hit outs.
You may assume that Nimmo is doing one spectacularly necessary factor higher this 12 months: putting out much less continuously. That’s true, undoubtedly; his 13.8% strikeout price is a profession low. But I don’t anticipate that to final; he’s truly making much less contact this 12 months than final and has a better swinging-strike price regardless of swinging much less continuously. It’s too early within the 12 months to consider small adjustments in somebody’s strikeout price. Let’s put it this manner: over the previous three years, he’s struck out 18.5% of the time. Every projection system we host thinks he’ll strike out between 17% and 17.7% of the time the remainder of the 12 months. In different phrases, the strikeout price enchancment might be actual however fairly small in magnitude.
In the previous, the principle factor holding Nimmo again from star-level worth was availability. I do know I spent some time speaking about how his contract stunned folks, however the reality of the matter is that he’s been wonderful when wholesome all through his profession. In 2,368 plate appearances earlier than this 12 months, he’s compiled 17.9 WAR, a 4.5 WAR/600 PA tempo. In different phrases, he’s performed like a perennial All Star when he’s on the sector. The drawback is that he’s eclipsed 600 PAs solely as soon as, because of early-career platooning after which damage points.
I received’t fake to be a well being skilled, however I’m prepared to wager on Nimmo being largely wholesome this 12 months. Why? Because that one full season of his profession was 2022, and since he’s been wholesome to start out 2023. That’s a great pattern, to say the least, and the additional the Mets get away from the previous regime, the extra their snakebitten historical past with accidents normalizes. I’m not saying Nimmo is a lock to remain wholesome all 12 months, however he doesn’t appear extra damage inclined than any random 30-year-old-hitter to me.
To reiterate a theme yet another time: nothing Nimmo is doing this 12 months is especially revolutionary. He will get on base. He hits for sufficient energy to maintain folks sincere. He performs good protection; for the reason that begin of 2021, he’s tied for tenth amongst centerfielders in OAA, Statcast’s defensive metric. This is who Nimmo has been for years at this level, as shocking as which may sound.
When you place it that method, perhaps what he’s doing proper now’s much less surprising than it first appears. He’s close to the highest of the leaderboards as a result of that’s the sort of hitter he’s: the most effective 25 or so in baseball. He’s not burning unsustainably shiny. He didn’t have to make a wholesale change to his sport to go from exploitable to unstoppable. He’s simply being himself, the identical Nimmo he’s all the time been. Not everybody on the high of a leaderboard on May 2 is there due to some new sizzling factor; typically, the gamers there are simply good.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com