Jonathan India Is Bouncing Again in an Sudden Means

Jonathan India began his profession with a bang. In 2021, the Cincinnati second baseman put up a 120 wRC+ and three.0 WAR over 150 video games, adequate to snag National League Rookie of the Year honors. Last yr, a hamstring harm restricted him to only 103 video games, and he struggled to a 95 wRC+ on the plate. He appeared like a pure bounce again candidate coming into the 2023 season, and right here he’s bouncing again. After an enormous day on Sunday, India’s .306/.397/.460 slash line consists of three career-best figures. His underlying metrics are additionally higher than ever in a bunch of classes.

Let’s begin with plate self-discipline. India is chasing lower than ever, whiffing lower than ever, strolling extra, and putting out means much less. Those developments are all — and please excuse the within baseball jargon right here — superb. His chase charge has both improved or held regular towards each pitch sort aside from sinkers, which have been one thing of an Achilles’ heel this yr. He’s hitting them tougher, however 71% of the sinkers he’s put in play have been groundballs, up from 54% in earlier years.

India is reaching base extra and hitting the ball a lot tougher. After the earlier paragraph, you would possibly assume that his elevated exit velocity has come from hitting extra pitches within the zone, however the distinction is smaller than you would possibly suppose: 87% of his balls in play got here on pitches within the zone, versus 84% in 2021. Further, a detailed have a look at his batting line reveals one thing attention-grabbing: Although he’s hitting the ball tougher and his BABIP is at a profession excessive, his manufacturing on balls in play continues to be a methods off from the place it was in 2021.

Again, this isn’t essentially a foul factor; strolling extra and putting out much less has up to now made this a worthwhile tradeoff. But it’s value exploring why India’s newfound exit velocity hasn’t translated into as a lot energy as we’d count on. He’s at present operating a .153 ISO, nearer to the mark he put up final yr than the .190 he posted in 2021. His barrel charge is likewise between his 2021 and ’22 figures, and his HR/FB is at a profession low.

The first drawback is that the lion’s share of the additional EV has come on groundballs, slightly than the road drives and fly balls that may do actual harm:

The different situation is within the backside proper nook of that chart. Although India’s EV on air balls is increased than it was in 2021, his xwOBA continues to be 76 factors worse. That’s largely as a result of he’s pulling these balls simply 33% of the time, far beneath his profession charge of 43%. Although it helps that he performs in a small ballpark, he doesn’t possess the type of energy that may let him spray the ball to all fields for extra-base hits. Take a have a look at the place his base hits have fallen this season, courtesy of Baseball Savant:

Across India’s three years within the massive leagues, simply 16% of his extra-base hits and 9% of his residence runs have gone to the alternative discipline. He wants to tug his balls within the air in an effort to maximize their worth. That’s extra true than ever this yr, as a result of in the event you solely take a cursory have a look at his Statcast numbers, you’re more likely to get the flawed impression.

The 2023 version of Jonathan India is a strolling commercial for the significance of Ninety fifth-percentile exit velocity. Say you’re a coach and it’s important to decide between two gamers with a mean exit velocity of 90 mph. One hits the ball 90 mph each single time; the opposite hits it 110 mph half of the time and 70 mph the opposite half of the time. You’re going to need the second participant, the one with the Ninety fifth-percentile EV of 110 mph. All these 110s will greater than make up for the 70s.

At the second, India is veering nearer to the primary participant within the Parable of the Ninety fifth Percentile Exit Velocity. While his hard-hit charge is increased than it’s ever been, he’s largely achieved that by avoiding mis-hits: 28% of his batted balls have been beneath 85 mph, in comparison with 38% in 2021 and 45% in ’22. That’s nice, nevertheless it’s masking the truth that he hasn’t but accessed his highest gear. In reality, regardless of this latest energy surge, his hardest-hit ball of the yr is 107.9 mph, a far cry from the 110.2 and 111.3 he maxed out at in 2021 and ’22, respectively. With apologies to Jonah Heim and Anthony Rendon, he’s one in every of simply three gamers with a mean EV over 90 mph and a max EV beneath 108. And his Ninety fifth-percentile EV? It’s the bottom it’s ever been:

If the highest of India’s energy scale actually has dropped by 2 or 3 mph — and after 105 batted ball occasions, that’s not an unreasonable query to ask — it could symbolize a big change. I can solely provide hypothesis as to the explanation he hasn’t but approached his earlier heights. Maybe it’s a facet impact of his extra passive strategy. Maybe it has to do with the truth that he’s returned to the batting stance that he used for many of the 2021 season (although I don’t personally subscribe to that notion, as he simply tends to tinker along with his stance rather a lot). Another doable issue is that after bulking up earlier than the 2022 season, he determined to slim down throughout this offseason. India stated coming into camp that he had misplaced 10 kilos and gained 3 mph of dash velocity in an effort to extend his defensive vary. Statcast really has his dash velocity barely down, although his baserunning and defensive metrics are improved. It’s doable that chopping some weight may have price him a little bit of energy, however once more, that’s merely hypothesis.

For an article that’s purported to be about India having a fantastic yr, we’ve been spending a whole lot of time on the issues that aren’t working, so let’s finish on a constructive notice. Thus far, this new, extra affected person model of India is definitely seeing outcomes. The improved on-base potential has been definitely worth the decreased energy output. If he manages to put off a number of extra sinkers or to get extra of his hard-hit balls within the air, or perhaps if these two or three ticks of exit velocity that he misplaced flip up in between the sofa cushions on Tuesday, he may hit an entire new gear, or no less than have a greater likelihood of sustaining his present stage of manufacturing.

As issues stand proper now, India is on the level the place in the event you squint, his profile begins to look a bit like Alex Bregman’s. While India’s improved plate self-discipline and speak to potential nonetheless can’t match Bregman’s, that are actually elite, he’s following the Bregman playbook of creating constant onerous contact regardless of middling uncooked energy. Both gamers get the majority of their manufacturing by pulling the ball, and each characteristic a ton of doubles ripped down the left discipline line. The largest distinction is that Bregman has leaned into that profile and mastered the artwork of lifting the ball into left to reap the benefits of his ballpark’s batter-friendly dimensions.

Lastly, let’s do not forget that it’s nonetheless early. I began writing this text on Thursday, when India’s wRC+ was 105. Over the weekend, he raised it 25 factors, going 8-for-15 with two residence runs and two doubles. On Sunday, on the actual second that I used to be typing the paragraph about how India wants to tug the ball within the air in an effort to maximize his energy, he hit his second consecutive extra-base hit of the day to proper discipline. So perhaps I’m flawed about that one. That’s why they play the video games.