Hindsight Is Higher Than 20/20 for Jack Suwinski

Let me inform you a few issues about Jack Suwinski. First, when Suwinski was nonetheless a prospect final winter, Eric Longenhagen had this to say concerning the younger participant’s future:

30. Jack Suwinski, DH

“On-paper performance is especially important for a hitter like Suwinski because he’s a positionless defender who needs to rake to have any sort of big league role […] Because he lacks a true position, Suwinski’s chances of playing a significant role increase with the likely implementation of the universal DH.”

It’s uncommon to see a prospect listed as a chosen hitter. Across all 30 lists our staff put collectively final 12 months, solely 9 ranked prospects had the letters “DH” written subsequent to their identify. That’s lower than one p.c. Even extra uncommon was the 20/20 grade Eric gave Suwinksi’s fielding device. That’s the worst grade you may get: a gift 20 and a future 20. Essentially, it means a man is unplayable within the area with little to no hope of bettering sooner or later. Often, the one time you’ll see a 20/20 in any class is to explain a catcher’s pace. Former FanGraphs prospect guru Kiley McDaniel didn’t even hassle to outline a 20 grade in his overview of the 20-80 scouting scale, explaining “It’s almost never relevant for players that I’ll be writing about or any of their tools.”

A participant must actually hit to compensate for such a poor glove. That’s why it’s so unusual for somebody with a 20/20 fielding grade to make a high prospect listing. Only 4 prospects acquired the worst attainable fielding grade final 12 months – that’s one third of 1 p.c of all of the gamers ranked.

So, Suwinski was a uncommon DH prospect and an uber-rare 20/20-grade defender. That’s the very first thing I wished to inform you about him. As for the second factor? Well, as of Opening Day 2023, Jack Suwinski is a bona fide heart fielder.

When the Pirates took the sphere on Opening Day, Suwinski grabbed his glove and took his place. He had performed heart area earlier than, however solely in restricted doses. It was by no means his full-time job. Suwinski was drafted out of highschool by the Padres and spent 55 video games in heart throughout his age-17 and 18 seasons. Over the subsequent 4 years, he performed simply 9 extra video games in heart area.

At the 2021 commerce deadline, Suwinski was dealt to the Pirates as a part of the bundle for Adam Frazier. He wouldn’t play heart once more till he was standing on the outfield grass in PNC Park greater than eight months later. Even then, he was solely enjoying the place out of necessity; backup heart fielder Jake Marisnick had injured his thumb, and Pittsburgh was low on choices. However, the Pirates clearly appreciated what they noticed from their emergency alternative. Suwinski was demoted shortly after Marisnick returned, however he stored training in heart at Triple-A. He earned one other call-up in late August and continued to nab the occasional begin in heart area.

Watch just a few clips, and it’s not laborious to see why the Pirates had been so impressed. Suwinski didn’t play sufficient heart to show he might deal with the place full-time, however he seemed succesful sufficient to warrant an even bigger alternative:

That shot from Albert Pujols got here off the bat at 100 mph, and it was fairly the run for Suwinski to trace it down. He was positioned over towards proper area, however he took a pleasant, straight route to succeed in the ball in left-center, deftly grabbing it simply earlier than he hit the wall.

This liner from Rowdy Tellez got here off the bat even sooner, giving Suwinski much less time to react:

Perhaps a greater fielder wouldn’t have wanted to dive, however this was nonetheless a wonderful show of athleticism. It’s additionally spectacular how rapidly Suwinski bought as much as throw the ball in. A few nice performs don’t show Suwinski is a good heart fielder, however come on, are you able to think about a DH-type (like Pujols or Tellez) making both of these catches?

The metrics help the attention check, additional supporting Suwinski’s defensive breakout. In 113 video games final season, he put up 2 DRS, 4.0 UZR, and 1 OAA. He was at his finest in heart area, with 1 DRS, 3.9 UZR, and 1 OAA in 19 video games. The fielding metrics at Baseball Prospectus had been equally excessive on his outfield protection; he was value 2.2 DRP in heart area and 6.1 DRP general. Take these numbers with an enormous ol’ grain of salt – his enjoying time was restricted, particularly in heart – however nonetheless, it’s encouraging that the numbers had been optimistic and that every one the various metrics appear to agree.

Speaking to reporters this February, supervisor Derek Shelton confirmed how completely satisfied he was with Suwinski’s growth: “Last year, he became a better outfielder as the season went on at the major league level. I think we’re going to continue to get a look at that.”

True to his phrase, Shelton gave Suwinski loads of alternatives in heart area this spring. Most individuals would inform you he seemed fairly good:

Suwinski ended up enjoying extra heart than both left or proper, and certainly, he performed extra heart area than anybody else on the Pirates roster. It wasn’t lengthy earlier than it appeared as if he actually might be the Opening Day heart fielder.

So, the place did this defensive breakout come from? It’s definitely attainable that Suwinski’s prospect analysis was a bit too harsh, however 20/20 is a damning grade, and it’s not one to be issued evenly. Moreover, it’s not as if FanGraphs was the one publication to criticize his glove. Keith Law of The Athletic known as Suwinski “a platoon bat off the bench who can sort of play an outfield corner, but not well.” Baseball America wasn’t fairly so brutal, however they nonetheless thought-about him a bat-first nook outfielder who wasn’t “a dynamic athlete defensively.” Ultimately, Suwinski didn’t get a lot consideration as a prospect, however you must presume that if anybody actually thought he might play heart area, he would have warranted a more in-depth look.

As Derek Shelton expressed, Suwinski improved with apply all through the 2022 season. I’m positive he did, however all the identical, just a few months of apply can’t clarify how he took such an enormous step ahead. Instead, I feel the higher rationalization is that Suwinski is quicker than we thought. He earned a 30/30 working grade on our 2022 rankings, whereas Baseball America known as him “an average runner” on their equal listing. Yet Suwinski ranked within the 84th percentile in dash pace final season, and his 90-foot dash time was even higher. He was notably fast within the first 30 ft from residence to first, rating within the 91st percentile alongside outfielders like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Brandon Nimmo. His outfielder soar numbers had been poor as a result of his response time was gradual, however as soon as he bought shifting, he had the wheels to cowl loads of floor:

This offseason, Suwinski informed reporters that heart area is the place he feels most comfy enjoying as a result of he needs to have room to run. His supervisor agrees it’s a superb match; he likes how Suwinski strikes in heart. It’s attainable the younger outfielder’s glove was under-appreciated when enjoying the corners, since masking floor is his most dear ability.

Bryan Reynolds was additionally impressed with Suwinski’s protection, praising his “good routes” and fast footspeed. Reynolds has been the first heart fielder in Pittsburgh since partway by way of the 2020 season. His protection has come into query as of late, however he’s not thus far faraway from a Gold Glove finalist marketing campaign in 2021. He posted 11 OAA that 12 months. It actually says one thing about Suwinski that the Pirates are keen to provide him reps over Reynolds in heart area. (The cynical voice behind my head wonders if that is a part of a ploy to decrease Reynolds’s worth in extension talks, however I don’t actually imagine that.)

Thus far in 2023, Reynolds has performed 23 innings in heart and Suwinski solely 11. Ji Hwan Bae has grabbed a few video games as effectively. It’s laborious to gauge how a lot enjoying time Suwinski will see going ahead, however it’s clear he isn’t the full-time heart fielder simply but. However, that’s possible the results of his poor efficiency on the plate (.642 OPS this spring, .444 OPS within the common season) extra so than anything.

No matter what occurs from right here on out, Jack Suwinski has already executed an unbelievable factor. Over the previous 12 months, he has considerably improved his prospects by growing right into a viable possibility in heart area. It’s far too quickly to say if he’ll be good on the market, however simply dealing with probably the most demanding positions on the diamond is a priceless ability in and of itself. Major league groups (and sure, even the Pirates) don’t hand out Opening Day begins to simply anybody, particularly once they have already got an All-Star heart fielder on the roster. Suwinski took his alternative in heart area and ran with it – fairly actually. It’s the type of baseball success story you like to see.