After Dominating Yankees, Drew Rasmussen Turns into the Newest Rays Starter Felled by Injury

On Thursday night time, Drew Rasmussen baffled the Yankees, holding them to simply two hits in seven scoreless innings and solely attending to a three-ball rely as soon as; he didn’t stroll anyone whereas putting out seven. Within 24 hours, nonetheless, the Rays all however introduced that the 27-year-old righty’s season was in jeopardy, inserting Rasmussen on the 60-day injured checklist with a flexor pressure and placing yet one more damper on the group’s scorching begin.

Indeed, it was nearly a month in the past that the Rays misplaced one other beginning pitcher. Jeffrey Springs had allowed only one run in 16 innings over three begins whereas putting out 24 earlier than he was sidelined by what was initially recognized as ulnar neuritis after which recognized as a flexor pressure, although it turned out he wanted Tommy John surgical procedure as nicely, knocking him out for the rest of the 2023 season.

That development is notable, as Rasmussen himself has already had not one however two Tommy John surgical procedures, each whereas at Oregon State. Via the Tampa Bay Times‘ Marc Topkin, the pitcher said on Friday “[A]nything dealing with the forearm/elbow is terrifying for me.” He explained that he felt something wrong with his right elbow “like nerve sensitivity, not any real pain” while facing Gleyber Torres, his final batter of the night, and his velocity had tailed off. On Friday morning, he underwent an MRI, and the good news is that so far there hasn’t been any indication of additional harm to his ulnar collateral ligament:

Rasmussen stated the preliminary imaging “looked OK” concerning the UCL, and the preliminary prognosis from group orthopedist Dr. Koco Eaton, who occurred to be in New York for the weekend, was that surgical procedure was not initially advisable. Rasmussen will get additional analysis subsequent week by specialist Dr. Keith Meister.

The checklist of pitchers who’ve come again from a 3rd TJ is a really brief one, consisting of Jason Isringhausen, Jonny Venters, and (probably) Jose Rijo — a listing I spent a while ironing out a number of years in the past, and never one which any pitcher needs to land on.

Rasmussen’s first Tommy John surgical procedure was in March 2016, the second in August ’17, after he was drafted within the first spherical by the Rays (thirty first general); he didn’t signal earlier than the July 7 deadline, because the Rays famous “discrepancies” in his predraft and postdraft MRIs. The Brewers selected Rasmussen within the sixth spherical in 2018, signing him for a $135,000 bonus, a fraction of what he would have acquired as a first-rounder.

The Rays lastly acquired Rasmussen as a part of the Willy Adames commerce in May 2021, and it’s on their watch that he’s progressed from late-inning reliever to high starter. After transitioning to the rotation in late 2021, he pitched to a 2.84 ERA and three.26 FIP in 146 innings final 12 months. His efficiency had taken a step ahead this 12 months, through a 2.62 ERA and a couple of.56 FIP in 44.2 innings; the previous ranks ninth within the league, the latter sixth, and for good measure his 2.80 xERA is fifth. He had already totaled 1.4 WAR (ninth within the league), in comparison with final 12 months’s 2.9.

Rasmussen has taken a step ahead by rising each his strikeout charge (from 21.4% to 26.6%) and his groundball charge (from 46.6% to 52.6), which places him in one thing of a candy spot. I’m an enormous fan of pitchers who can generate groundballs and miss bats, as these are a few excellent methods of stopping massive harm. A couple of years in the past whereas writing concerning the emergence of Luis Castillo, I used our Plus Stats — particularly league-indexed strikeout and groundball charges, the place 100 is league common, 120 represents a efficiency 20% above common, and so forth — to create a junk stat referred to as KGB+, the sum of these two listed charges. Here’s what final 12 months’s leaderboard seemed like, utilizing a 120-inning cutoff:

As you possibly can see, all people on there — together with Castillo, the pitcher who led me to create this metric — did a better-than-average job at stopping runs; the truth is, the median ERA- of the group above was 73, whereas that of their FIP- was 76. This 12 months’s samples are sufficiently small that we don’t get fairly the identical consistency throughout the high 20:

Still, that’s a median ERA- of 64 and a median FIP- of 74. This is mostly place to be, and there’s our man Rasmussen, having joined the social gathering by boosting his Okay%+ from final 12 months’s 97 and his GB+% from final 12 months’s 110. His 35-point leap in KGB+ is the fifth-largest of any pitcher assembly the 2 cutoffs, with Gilbert’s 55-point leap the biggest, and Joe Ryan, Kevin Gausman, and José Berríos the three pitchers in between.

Rasmussen’s emergence as a starter owes loads to final 12 months’s addition of an excellent cutter, one Ben Clemens wrote about final August. It’s turn into his workhorse pitch, to the purpose that this 12 months, he’s throwing it extra usually than his four-seamer. The pitch generates his highest swinging strike charge and, if we’re not counting his rising sinker, his highest CSW charge as nicely:

With this barely rejiggered combine, Rasmussen’s been simpler when he will get to 2 strikes, holding hitters to a .122 AVG and .156 SLG, down from .189/.279 final 12 months; he has but to permit a two-strike residence run this 12 months. Meanwhile all of his pitches save for his sinker (curiously sufficient) are producing increased groundball charges than final 12 months:

Batters are hitting simply .204 and slugging .327 in opposition to the cutter, in comparison with .248/.360 final 12 months. And whereas he’s that includes his sweeper much less, they’re additionally hitting a meager .129/.161 in opposition to it. In all, he’s executed an excellent job of limiting exhausting contact:

Via Statcast, Rasmussen’s common exit velocity locations within the 72nd percentile, his hard-hit charge within the 81st, his barrel charge within the 84th, and his xwOBA (and xERA) within the eighty fifth.

It’s a bummer to lose that good a pitcher for any size of time, and it’s nonetheless attainable he’ll want surgical procedure on his flexor, if not a 3rd TJ. If there’s excellent news, it’s that if Rasmussen does keep away from surgical procedure, he ought to have a window to return this season, although he’s assured to transcend the minimal keep on the IL. Via Topkin, the plan is for him to be shut down from throwing for no less than eight weeks, after which he can slowly be constructed again as much as the purpose of happening a rehab task, maybe in mid-August. Even with out setbacks, the method may simply stretch previous three months.

As to the place that leaves the Rays, the reply is “back in the realm of openers.” The lefty-throwing McClanahan and righty-throwing Eflin are working as conventional starters, and each have pitched nicely, however the remaining is mixing and matching, as a complete of seven pitchers moreover that pair and the 2 now-injured ones have began video games. Righty Yonny Chirinos and lefty Josh Fleming have every began simply as soon as, however each are pitching in bulk roles behind openers akin to lefty Jalen Beeks and righties Trevor Kelley, Javy Guerra (who was designated for task on Sunday), and Calvin Faucher (who’s since been optioned to Triple-A Durham).

Taj Bradley, their high pitching prospect (no. 37 on the Top 100 checklist), is a 22-year-old righty who may take Rasmussen’s spot on Wednesday in opposition to the Mets. He made three begins for the Rays in April, lasting a minimum of 5 innings in every and posting a 3.52 ERA and a couple of.58 FIP, however he’s been getting knocked round at Durham since his demotion, the place he’s been engaged on a five-day schedule as a substitute of a six-day one. Cooper Criswell, a 26-year-old righty at Durham, has been talked about in its place, however he matches in additional as a bulk sort. Ultimately, the Rays are awaiting the return of Tyler Glasnow, who made three begins late final 12 months (together with one within the Division Series) after rehabbing from Tommy John surgical procedure and continues to be working his means again from an indirect pressure suffered in spring coaching. He made his second rehab begin for Durham on May 10, however departed after only one inning because of gentle left aspect tightness; fortunately, an examination revealed no new damage. He’s anticipated to make one other begin for Durham on Tuesday after which most likely one after that earlier than he’s able to return to the Rays.

With their scorching begin, the Rays have taken command of the AL East. They lead the upstart Orioles by 3.5 video games, the Blue Jays by 6.5, and the Yankees and Red Sox by seven. Via our Playoff Odds, their probabilities of successful the division have roughly tripled since Opening Day, from 19.6% to 60.3%, with their odds of creating the playoffs capturing from 61.3% to 95.2%. Still, it’s dismaying to see the gamers who helped them construct that lead dropping by the wayside. The Rays must cross their fingers and hope Rasmussen avoids the working desk and makes a robust sufficient restoration to assist them end what they began.