Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/23/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people, and welcome to my weekly chat!

Jay Jaffe: I’ll revisit that one, there are a few unfastened ends. Anyway, on with the present…

Daniel: Ben Clemens stated yesterday he thinks Outman has a considerable lead for NL ROY. Do you agree? Corbin Carroll is barely forward by WAR, so I don’t instantly see why this could be the case.

Jay Jaffe: With apologies to Ben, “substantial” could also be overstating the case, at the very least to those eyes. After all, we’re speaking a few subjective argument as to who’s “ahead” for an awards race in a season that’s not 1/3 of the best way by. I do assume that Outman being on the Dodgers, with their increased profile, affords him some benefits that Carroll doesn’t have with the Diamondbacks, significantly in a race that has as a lot to do with notion as efficiency. That may actually have an effect, however the two are even in fWAR (1.5) with Carroll proudly owning a 1.5-1.0 edge in bWAR. Carroll is thought to be the higher prospect and if i needed to put down cash at even odds, I’d nonetheless take him.

Bubba: The Mets nonetheless have their wrinkles, however the final 5 video games are a few of the most enjoyable I’ve had as a fan.  That is all.

Jay Jaffe: Even Mets followers deserve somewhat enjoyable, as a deal with. Seriously, having Scherzer and Verlander in working order, and having Alvarez and Baty (and now Vientos) within the lineup to assist enhance a few of the useless spots is what offers them an opportunity to enhance upon their sluggish begin.

C-Low: Why is OPS a stat that individuals use to evaluate a batter?  OBP and Slugging will not be equal.  You can’t add two numbers with completely different denominators.

Jay Jaffe: it’s a really fast and soiled metric that’s been round now for 3 many years. It’s largely been outmoded by OPS+ and wRC+, however neither of these are one thing you may calculate by trying in the back of a baseball card or the stats on a scoreboard or chyron, so it has some use.

“OPS is the Masonic handshake” — MLB official historian John Thorn, on the gateway to sabermetrics, c. 2012 (and doubtless earlier)

Daniel: Can Acuna preserve this (specifically a wRC+ >170) up all season? Do you anticipate him to?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t ever anticipate anyone to take care of a 170 wRC+ as a result of we’ve seen fewer than two per (non-strike, non-pandemic) yr by non-Bonds hitters through the Wild Card period.

Jay Jaffe: That stated, i do imagine we’re seeing one thing alongside the strains of what Acuña was doing earlier than he tore his ACL, and that’s a powerful factor to behold even when the protection is a bit rougher that you simply’d wish to see

Jay Jaffe: ON the topic of the protection, Old Friend Mike Petriello had a Twitter thread on his protection. Start right here

Trader Jerry’s: Over the final couple of seasons the Mariners have been glorious in one-run video games. People stated this was unsustainable, and this yr the pendulum has swung the exact opposite means, with the Ms holding a 4-12 document in video games determined by one run thus far, an enormous cause why they’re beneath .500 in the intervening time. Do you assume this swing is random variance, or can we anticipate to see some constructive regression on this entrance?

Jay Jaffe: Most of what goes down with one-run data has an entire lot extra to do with random variance than ability, and is essentially unsustainable on the extremes. I’d anticipate a little bit of constructive regression except, like, Scott Servais sticks to pitchers who can’t maintain leads

Jay Jaffe: Joe Sheehan had an excellent piece on one-run data within the May 18 version of his publication. Here’s a screenshot of how the very best one-run groups fared in one-run video games the next yr

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Highly suggest if you may get your arms on it

Smiling Politely: Thx to the Pads, the Dodgers don’t must panic, however they most likely want to start out interested by reinforcements to carry off AZ. You wrote about Stone and Miller developing; who do you assume they’re largely possible to take a look at within the commerce market?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say it’s inevitable that they are going to, as a result of let’s face it, Kershaw and Gonsolin aren’t probably the most sturdy hurlers and so they’re being requested to hold the load.

Jay Jaffe: oh, sorry, i didn’t see the “who” a part of that query

Jay Jaffe: I’d anticipate them to look into Shane Bieber and Corbin Burnes on the high finish, which doesn’t imply both will likely be traded or that they’ll make the prospect sacrifices that such a transfer requires.

Jay Jaffe: Lucas Giolito is one other identify, as he’s a pending free agent in a tire fireplace on the South Side

Mork Borg: Imagine that each one successful percentages have been the identical on the commerce deadline as they’re now. What do the AL East groups attempt to do?  They can’t all make the playoff, so which of them purchase, promote, stand pat, and so on.?

Jay Jaffe: barring ridiculously excessive affords, I don’t assume you’d see any of them SELL within the occasion they’re useless even on the deadline as a result of that’s horrible PR; at worst they’d stand pat, but it surely’s extra possible that every of these groups makes some form of transfer, as a result of not doing so sends a message to the clubhouse: “we don’t think you can do this.” That’s no technique to run a staff.

Mugghead: To paraphrase John Madden, if you happen to’ve acquired three of one thing, it most likely means you haven’t acquired one among something. I’m presently carrying Tellez, France, and Naylor at 1B in my H2H Points League. How would you rank them for ROS? Thanks for the time.

Jay Jaffe: with out figuring out the classes, I’d say I choose France and Tellez to be fairly even, with Naylor a beat behind. in a fantasy context — and I haven’t performed fantasy in over a decade, and infrequently a h2h league — i’d say Tellez if you happen to prioritize HR, France if you happen to prioritize AVG.

Jay Jaffe: This has been “Incomplete Fantasy Advice with Jay Jaffe”

John: Could we see Austin Wells in LF this summer season for the Yankees? AAA needs to be quickly and the present choices clearly uninspiring

Jay Jaffe: If you assume the Yankees are going to show a catching prospect with 70 video games at Double-A and no skilled outfield expertise into their left fielder in-season, I’d ask you if in case you have watched the Yankees through the Brian Cashman period. They don’t do this form of panic transfer, and albeit i don’t see many GMs/PrezOps who would. That’s simply insane.

Mordecai and Rigby: Hey, if you happen to have been a scorching canine, and also you have been ravenous, would you eat your self?

Jay Jaffe: Only as a sandwich

LetsGoDads: Are the Padres damaged for the long run? Hard to see the place they go together with no catcher, a stable SS dropping worth taking part in 2B, an All Star 2B dropping worth taking part in 1B, a CF who can’t hit, a skinny (and outdated) bullpen, little or no minor league depth and a confirmed monitor document of NOT with the ability to develop expertise.

Jay Jaffe: there are causes to be involved long run, as you notice, but it surely’s additionally value noting that AJ Preller does like to commerce, and there may quickly come some extent the place Kim, Cronenworth, and even Tatis is dealt to fill different wants and assist to reshape the roster. it may nonetheless blow up even when they do after all. But they’ve amassed a lot expertise that they nonetheless do have choices to reconfigure it in fascinating methods

Bob: The O’s are on fireplace — all whereas Gunnar has struggled, Grayson Rodriguez has been shaky, and impact-level prospects stay at AAA (to not point out Jackson Holliday raking in High-A). Should they go all-in starting this yr, or deal with constructing for subsequent yr/past after they may very well be finest positioned to win all of it? How do you steadiness their success this yr with long run objectives?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume you piss it away by NOT doing what you may to problem for a playoff spot if you happen to’re nonetheless in it in late July, however I don’t assume you begin buying and selling important minor league expertise simply to look busy on the deadline. I additionally assume the 2 months they’ve between at times is sufficient time to see if the staff is for actual or if the choice is made for them.

Tacoby Bellsbury: What do you assume the rest-of-season repair for the Yankees’ left subject state of affairs will likely be? (And needs to be, if these are completely different?)

Jay Jaffe: I anticipate we’ll lastly see a few of the Judge-Bader-Stanton alignment as soon as the final of these guys will get again, however they actually do want one other bat from outdoors the group to prop up the place. If nothing else they actually missed a chance to seize Jurickson Profar on a budget within the spring when he was nonetheless a free agent.

Jay Jaffe: As to who they may pursue on the deadline, it received’t be who you hope for.

Jay Jaffe: but it surely received’t be Joey Gallo both

homana: CHW’s pitching employees has quietly been a top-10 unit for the reason that calendar turned to May, and Hendriks is coming again quickly. They’re presently someway simply 6.5 again in a pitiful division. Would you narrow bait & have a hearth sale, or keep the course for now?

Jay Jaffe: I feel the roster wants an actual overhaul, however once more, there are two months earlier than they actually must determine. If they’re nonetheless an improved staff in mid-July, they most likely ought to go for it, however they do have a number of potential to make some offers, particularly in the event that they’re keen to think about buying and selling Tim Anderson, who has a membership choice for subsequent yr.

Rickey: All appears effectively for the Braves, however i ponder whether you assume Michael Harris goes to rebound? He’s simply not trying proper. Do you work it’s his again, knee, or only a sophomore droop?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say all of these may very well be components; again and knee issues can mess a hitter up, and it’s value noting he was effectively forward of his Statcast anticipated numbers final yr, suggesting the probability of some regression

Jay Jaffe: Just the identical, he’s considerably behind these Statcast numbers this yr, so I’m unsure it’s as dangerous because it seems

Mike M: Does the balanced schedule deliver us a step nearer to some type of divisional or playoff realignment?  In a world the place all groups performed one another equally, being a division winner doesn’t imply a lot as a result of the playoffs may simply have the X groups with the very best data.  We’re not there but, however are we heading in that path?

Jay Jaffe: I feel that growth will result in an try — maybe not one that may acquire approval of sufficient groups — at a radical realignment however there’s all the time going to be a necessity for some quantity of geographic/division-based scheduling as a result of the journey burdens aren’t equal with regards to west vs. east.

Jay Jaffe: Top to backside, with the brand new schedule you might have groups just like the A’s and Mariners touring about twice as many air miles in a season because the midwest groups, and general, the so-called balanced schedule has added about 7% extra journey in miles

Jay Jaffe: At some level, the Players Association goes to balk at growing the journey burden with out getting one thing in return

Jay Jaffe: Maybe that’s how they get a 154-game schedule on the similar pay? Just spitballing.

Sean: Why is the AL Central?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I dunno both. They ought to simply go their separate methods.

chet: has something modified with jake burger? why is he so good now?

TomBruno23: Wait, Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman won’t proceed at a 170+ wRC+ tempo all summer season?

Jay Jaffe: effectively, the Cardinals have the very best followers in baseball, so possibly it would occur

Cito’s Mustache: Good afternoon, Jay! Have you spent a lot time utilizing the brand new Pitch Modelling information at FG? I all the time hit a roadblock when Bot and Pitching+ disagree with one another on a man. Instead of simply abandoning my evaluation there, what sort of extra context or information ought to I be on the lookout for to assist attain a consensus?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve dabbled a bit, sticking to Stuff+, which I used to be extra acquainted with earlier than, fairly than getting caught up in studying the nuances of two fashions directly. Mainly I’ve performed round with Stuff+ and targeted on year-to-year adjustments as a substitute of getting too granular and digging into smaller samples.

Jay Jaffe: I nonetheless assume you additionally need to take a look at the trad stats and the Statcast ones to get a extra well-rounded image of how a pitcher is doing, however gaining a greater appreciation for what a misplaced mile per hour and shaky command has on his Stuff and efficiency is value appreciating

Matt Brash: He’s working a 1.99 FIP and 4.50 ERA proper now due to a .524 BABIP. Do you anticipate his outcomes to enhance because the season goes on?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know if he can preserve that 41% strikeout price, so I’d anticipate the FIP to rise, however each that and his 3.48 xERA recommend his precise run prevention numbers ought to come down — he’s actually accomplished an excellent job of limiting onerous contact, and that .524 BABIP is the most important outlier of his stats.

Datt Mamon: Any concept what the heck has occurred to Kris Bryant? Why is he not even raking in Colorado?

WinTwins0410: Jay, I do know he died in obscurity (and labored blue-collar jobs after baseball) and has an unmarked grave and clearly wasn’t remembered as a significant star lengthy after retiring, however (and this may increasingly sound prefer it’s not a critical query however I promise you it’s critical): Why hasn’t there been a groundswell for Bill Dahlen for the Hall of Fame?  I get that nobody dwelling noticed him play and he didn’t seize the general public’s creativeness the best way different Nineteenth-century guys did, however nonetheless — he had a terrific profession by the requirements of his period.  I really feel just like the advanced-stats neighborhood by now would have latched tougher onto his candidacy for the Veterans Committee and never let go.  (I notice the constraints of what I’ve simply stated, as I see how advanced-stats instances Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich, amongst others, have gotten the stiff-arm from the Committee.)

Jay Jaffe: I feel the groundswell has come and gone. He’s been on ballots, he’s been SABR’s Overlooked Nineteenth Century Baseball Legend, his JAWS is correct there at quantity 10 on B-Ref’s shortstop leaderboard (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_SS.shtml). however he’s nonetheless outdoors and now it’s tougher than ever to get him in as a result of structural adjustments. I feel he’s harm by character points (mood, ingesting, playing) — together with an allegation of home violence — to the extent that the Hall most likely is blissful he’s gotten little traction.

Oaktown Blues: Any ideas on the Glen Kuiper state of affairs? Justified firing or overreaction?

Jay Jaffe: Always enunciate your phrases fastidiously lest you mess up on air in grand vogue.  

I don’t assume there’s any room for any form of discriminatory sentiment whenever you’re the voice of a staff, however I’m much less positive that it is a Brennaman-like state of affairs; that man clearly knew what he was saying and was dumb sufficient to take action right into a scorching mic. Given probably the most harmless clarification of Kuiper getting sadly tongue-tied at a crucial second, I can see room for granting him leeway. I believed Negro Leagues president Bob Kendrick was very gracious in stepping ahead on Kuiper’s behalf.

That stated, I’ve to marvel what else was happening behind the scenes — starting from had there been any hints of racism to had he not handled folks effectively — as a result of the A’s appear fairly cruel in letting him go. Then once more, possibly they’re simply utilizing him and the state of affairs as a distraction whereas they attempt to sneak out of city.

TomBruno23: Cardinals choose up the 12.5M choice on Paul DeJong for 2024?

Jay Jaffe: my hunch is sure if he continues to hit (although he received’t slug .627)

Big Maple: Am I again? What do the numbers say?

Jay Jaffe: The numbers say you might have eight main league begins for the reason that finish of 2019. Glad to see you on the mound and pitching effectively, however let’s not get too far forward of the truth that investing hopes in you given your damage historical past usually results in heartbreak

AL Central Casting: Hi Jay, do you purchase the argument {that a} staff’s common runs scored per recreation may very well be considerably inflated by scoring a bunch of runs in a couple of video games – sufficient to cover that they may truly be a worse offensive staff than that imply would recommend? Related, is there anywhere that publishes the median runs per recreation?

Jay Jaffe: It is after all statistically doable for such a factor to occur. I don’t know anywhere that publishes median runs per recreation however FanGraphs does publish a BaseRuns estimate that strips out the results of sequencing (together with piling up 27 runs in a recreation right here however not scoring there) to get a greater concept of a staff’s offensive high quality. See https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns

Justin: when is it time to panic on Michael Harris?

Jay Jaffe: Depends who you might be. If you’re a fantasy proprietor who simply needs to be observed, gentle your hair on fireplace and run down the road in order that we will chortle. If you’re the Braves, you’ve signed the man by 2030 primarily based on 114 video games of main league expertise so it’s gonna look fairly foolish if you happen to begin to panic. Again, the underlying information reveals his 2022 and ’23 aren’t as far aside because the slash stats say they have been. Give him time and a bigger pattern dimension earlier than doing something rash

Jay Jaffe: Ok people, it’s time for me to ice the shoulder. Thanks a lot for stopping by!

Jay Jaffe: We’ll do it once more subsequent week.