Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/1/23

Dan Szymborski: Greetings! I’ve a 1 PM appointment, so fairly strict on time at the moment

CK: I seen your Bengal reference and I admire it

Dan Szymborski: I made one?

Em: Do you suppose that first basemen would get fewer hamstring accidents, since they must be versatile to obtain throws from the opposite infielders?

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided, I’m not skilled sufficient on the human physique to know why this impact, if it exists, would possibly exist

Dan Szymborski: however it is likely to be itneresting to check precise hamstring accidents by place

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, somebody at door

Tacoby Bellsbury: Why has DJ LeMahieu’s strikeout fee skyrocketed? Is it fixable?

Dan Szymborski: OK, who discovered response icons?

Dan Szymborski: It’s skyrocketed, nevertheless, his basic plate self-discipline stats haven’t modified grossly

Dan Szymborski: His contact fee has gone down, however not “double the K rate” quantity

Dan Szymborski: I’m working a set of zStat numbers tonight for the third of the season, so there’ll truly be some readability there

Leland: Hunter Harvey 2 inning save after Finnegan labored seventh, Leiter Jr. additionally working excessive leverage, Alzolay appears like subsequent in line for saves. Do you suppose Finnegan will get traded?

Dan Szymborski: You imply to the Cubs?

Dan Szymborski: I think about the Nats would commerce FInnegan this summer season if somebody’s

Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit confused, these are two questions proper?

Wrights_Back: Thoughts on Mets pitching workers?   Do they want a starter or one or two relievers to have any shot on the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they nonetheless have a shot even with out!

Dan Szymborski: But they do want higher fortune there

Dan Szymborski: If no wholesome+good Scherzer or Verlander, it’s going to be powerful although

Bippity: Any hope Abreu remembers he was an excellent hitter very not too long ago?

Dan Szymborski: There’s nonetheless a shot, however as I wrote about again in April, the decline in his exit velocities are *very* worrisome

Dan Szymborski: As I famous on the time and peeved-at-me Astros followers didn’t, one of many traits of earlier Abreu crap-Aprils *nonetheless* concerned him hitting the ball exhausting (besides 2016)

Dan Szymborski: It’s truly trended properly in final couple of weeks

Dan Szymborski: however his plate self-discipline modifications are additionally scary – he’s concurrently swinging at fewer good pitches and extra unhealthy ones.

Dan Szymborski: You’ll see these numbers are usually correlated when modifications are method based mostly – a participant being extra aggressive, for instance, will are likely to see upticks in each, however hopefully a bigger uptick in z-swing than o-swing

Dan Szymborski: however going the unhealthy method in each is often a foul signal

Dan Szymborski: and at Abreu’s age, particularly regarding. I want I had bat pace knowledge

NL solely: Should Gary Sanchez be rostered in two C NL solely leagues at this level? Think he would possibly truly hit?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how massive the league is de facto!

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided he’ll truly hit although

Dan Szymborski: his BABIP lastly received again to the place it ought to have been final yr and he nonetheless wasn’t excellent

Dan Szymborski: and he wasn’t actually even killing minor league pitchers

Guest: What does AI counsel for the quantity of beans in a chili recipe?

Dan Szymborski: the AI learns from unhealthy chili recipes!

Curious reader: Do the authors talk every week about what it’s they’ll be writing about; has there ever been a scenario through which two writers principally wrote the identical factor?

Dan Szymborski: We talk in Slack channel what we’re pondering of writing about

Dan Szymborski: if I’m writing an analogous topic to a bit every week or two earlier than, Meg will double-check to ensure I’m doing one thing completely different sufficient to make it worthwhile

Dan Szymborski: Like, if Eric and I have been each doing items on Gunnar Henderson, we’d take very completely different approaches

Dan Szymborski: So typically if my projected content material is simply too near one thing another person is written, I’ll return to the drafting board and consider a further spin that I can do this no one else has but completed

Dan Szymborski: It’s essential to us to *not* replicate content material

Dan Szymborski: from ourselves or anybody else!

Dan Szymborski: Which is why I’ll ensure and embody ZiPS issues at instances even when that’s not the main target of the article; it’s vital to us to offer you guys stuff that may have *one thing* new, be it an opinion or a reality or a projection or no matter

Dan Szymborski: It’s a small firm and everyone knows one another very properly, so there’s no friction in our slack discussions or dibs on subjects

Dan Szymborski: As far as I do know: there could possibly be a rash of FUCKING SZYMBORSKI!!!!! non-public messages that I have no idea about, however I don’t learn about them!

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Can town of Oakland simply use eminent area on the A’s already?

Dan Szymborski: Meh

Dan Szymborski: Ignoring the authorized questions, I personally discover use of it on this sense to be basically immoral. And I don’t approve doing basically immoral issues, even to crappy individuals.

Droopy Slider: Hi Dan!  How does a participant’s precise season manufacturing influence ZIPS ROS projections over the course of the season?  How does the burden given to precise season manufacturing change because the season progresses (1/3, 1/2, & 2/3 marks)?  Many thanks.  Love your work.

Dan Szymborski: I can let you know how ZIPS does it, although not how Steamer and others do

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS derives it in-season projections empirically based mostly on participant stats at each date of each season

Dan Szymborski: For instance, the very first thing ZiPS does in making a projection is to ascertain a really primary baseline

Dan Szymborski: that differs based mostly on stats – a hitter’s stroll fee will include much more season-to-date data than a hitter’s BABIP.

Dan Szymborski: after which ZiPS makes changes, within the full-fat mannequin, based mostly on the zStats

Zac: Trea Turner has been unhealthy.  Is it sufficient to meaningfully shift his ZIPs projections but?  That contract could possibly be groin-grabbingly horrible if he forgot how one can hit.

Dan Szymborski: It has already!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projected wRC+ has shiifted by like 19 factors within the detrimental since preseason

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Robo umps would get rid of catcher framing, making the ability nugatory. This would in all probability see the rise of higher throwing and hitting catchers. This is an efficient trade-off!

Dan Szymborski: I do know individuals like catching framing being a factor, however I don’t like skillsets being based mostly off of fooling the judges

Dan Szymborski: Even within the kindest description, catchers “making a positive case for a good pitch” I don’t suppose that the pitch must be half of what’s a shiny line judgment

12 to six: with buying and selling season quickly approaching, would:

eddys leonard and landon knack for stroman; or

diego cartaya and eddys leonard for giolito and tim anderson

ring a bell for the respective groups?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose this could be sufficient

Dan Szymborski: Cartaya would possible be a part of any massive commerce I believe

Dan Szymborski: however I’m undecided the needle has moved *that* a lot for Knack round baseball

Dan Szymborski: and Leonard isn’t a centerpiece of any deal for an excellent main leaguer

Guest: If you made an inventory of underrated pitches, Dauri Moreta’s slider needs to be up there, proper? Screwball motion + a lot of whiffs makes it so fascinating, however not many individuals are actually speaking about it.

Dan Szymborski: Moreta’s is neat as a result of he’s received a couple of completely different spins on it

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t run it, however I’d wager he’s method up there in variance of horizontal and vertical motion

Dan Szymborski: typically it’s kinda used like a 12-6 curve and typically there’s a number of horizontal motion

Curt: AL East shaping as much as be a enjoyable summer season. Cavalry coming for NYY, Baltimore within the thick and TB making a high tier offense out of skinny air. Which method you see this going?

Dan Szymborski: I believe the Rays cushion will maintain

Guest: Alright is Rob Manfred THAT unhealthy?

The juiced ball period is a reasonably poor look. There is totally an argument that Astros gamers ought to’ve gotten suspended for his or her scandal. But apart from that, I’d argue that Manfred has had a reasonably profitable reign as commissioner. Avoided dropping video games throughout the lockout, managed to determine some baseball in 2020. Some rule modifications I’m not loopy about, however I can look previous that

If he manages to alter the RSN mannequin and finish blackouts, that may be superior. Then once more, he solely does what homeowners need him to do, so possibly they deserve the credit score

Dan Szymborski: Depends from what viewpoint

Dan Szymborski: from the homeowners POV he’s respectable

Dan Szymborski: But I dont’ see what worth he’s delivered to the desk to make the sport total higher for followers

Cy Tanner: Who will get despatched down, me or Logan?

Dan Szymborski: Neither ideally

Dan Szymborski: At this level, I’d be placing Quantrill in lengthy aid/spot begin obligation when McKenzie returns

Dan Szymborski: he can’t simply bleed 20-30% of his Okay fee yearly

McGraw45: Padres media rights step one to ending the anti-competitive madness of RSNs?

Dan Szymborski: Probably. We’ll see the way it shakes out money-wise

Krusty: NYC Pitcher questions:

• is Max Scherzer discovering his stride? What do you anticipate going ahead?
• Gerrit Cole appeared like a CYA candidate in April and… um, not that in May as a result of his homeritis acted up.  He’s clearly a entrance finish starter, however I don’t suppose he could be an ace if he blows up this typically (insofar as a distinction exists). What’s your #take?

Dan Szymborski: His final couple of begins have appeared actually good

Dan Szymborski: Mad Max

Dan Szymborski: Though it’s additionally towards Guardians and Rockies, which you must look good towards this yr

Dan Szymborski: But I believe he’s going the proper course, although I haven’t dug into the nuts and bolts of the final two begins

Dan Szymborski: I misinterpret homeritis for a second

Dan Szymborski: and thought it was one other medical factor I hadn’t heard of earlier than, like E-Rod’s pulley

Dan Szymborski: Homers are usually risky

Dan Szymborski: I’m truly barely extra anxious that his whiff charges are eroding

Dutch A’s fan: How can our pitching be this unhealthy??

Dan Szymborski: I’m truly a bit stunned

Dan Szymborski: One issues the A’s are likely to do properly, aided by park, is crank out mediocre fourth/fifth starters like they’re horrible Chuck Lorre sitcoms

Dan Szymborski: however they’re not discovering these guys this yr

Dan Szymborski: Normally, you may give the A’s a pile of cream of mushroom soup cans and it’ll have a 4.40 ERA or one thing and 1.1 WAR over a season

Dan Szymborski: But this season it’s like they’re simply throwing the cans of soup into site visitors at rush hour

Dan Szymborski: this analogy is getting out of hand

Dan Szymborski: SOUP IS EVERYWHERE

Dan Szymborski: CARS ARE CRASHING

Dan Szymborski: I DONT KNOW HOW I GOT HERE

Guest: Shockingly, Juan Soto was good at baseball this entire time. Who would’ve thought?

Jefferson: When does Dan Szymborski take over broadcast rights of an MLB staff?

Dan Szymborski: I make a cushty residing, however I don’t suppose anybody will lengthen me sufficient credit score for that

Dan Szymborski: and since I would not have a station, I’m undecided I can actually generate income off the published rights

Endangered Marlin Fan: Obviously Bryan De La Cruz just isn’t this good, however he’s truly a good participant, proper? Are the Marlins truly allowed to have respectable hitters like this?

Dan Szymborski: What kinda sucks is that the Marlins by accident fell into him

Dan Szymborski: They entered the season with neither Sanchez or de la Cruz having full-time jobs

Dan Szymborski: Becasue Avisail Garcia makes cash

Freeman/Olson: Is it now time to say the Olson/ATL commerce was a mistake? Freddie Freeman now leads MLB WAR.  I believe Alex Anthopoulos is a good GM, however it looks like he ought to have simply given Freeman a sixth yr and never overthought.  ZIPs has Freddie at 3.1 WAR in 2025; not precisely falling off a cliff.

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go THAT far

Dan Szymborski: and Freeman’s nonetheless at ages the place he’s dangerous year-to-year

Will: Was simply going to ask a Gunnar query humorous sufficient. He appears to be bettering offensively slightly and positively appears extra comfy at third. Is this simply eye-test or is there something actual behind it?

Dan Szymborski: He’s actually higher at third than quick. I simply need him to get as a lot time at quick as potential to see if he’s adequate

Dan Szymborski: Since that’s the location with the very best upside

A Boy Named Yu: Can you please do a ballot for me?  Based solely on playability and never specializing in up to date rosters, which one is healthier?  MLB The Show 22 or 23?  Trying to determine which one to purchase to improve from 16.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t play MLB the Show 22!

Dan Szymborski: I can’t think about 22 performs *higher* because the modifications are usually incremental

Dan Szymborski: I solely received the cloud gaming working properly sufficient to get again into MLB the Show this yr

Dan Szymborski: and fortunately, PS5s are actually simple to snag, as a result of I can’t frigging hit a fastball on xbox cloud gaming

Dan Szymborski: I assumed that my reflexes had simply slowed significantly since 2020!

Appa Yip Yip: What could be a worse destiny: traded to the Athletics, or traded to the Rockies?

Dan Szymborski: the previous

Cave Dameron: How a lot do you tip on takeout?

Dan Szymborski: 20%

A Boy Named Yu: Is lasagna a sandwich with cheese and sauce on high?

Dan Szymborski: provided that you’re consuming it along with your palms

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ consider a sandwich you eat with a knife and fork remains to be a sandwich

Dan Szymborski: if you happen to eat a grilled cheese with a knife and a fork, it’s a savory napoleon

Milwaukee BeerJays: you ever take heed to the band Mastodon? Some of their stuff is like previous metallica the place it’s form of classical music chops clever

Dan Szymborski: I used to be by no means actually a steel man and my tastes have gotten softer through the years

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Fundamentally immoral to show the plaything of a billionaire right into a public good? Way higher than turning poor individuals’s homes right into a freeway.

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Using eminent area to grab FRIGGING ENTERTAINMENT firms is an abomination

Dan Szymborski: it’s not both/or

Dan Szymborski: there’s zero coherent argument {that a} sports franchise is public infrastructure

Dan Szymborski: and my fellow Baltimore residents hate after I point out this, however Irsay would have been a big goddamn fool to NOT transfer out of the city the second Maryland began hinting about taking part in authorized video games with eminent area.

A Boy Named Yu: Of the star 1B over the previous decade or so, are you stunned Freeman has outlasted most of them?

Dan Szymborski: Not actually, he’s typically projected at or close to the highest

Dan Szymborski: (additionally observe that that is as far into politics as I’m keen to tread)

Dan Szymborski: Back to Freeman

Dan Szymborski: In 2017 at 27, Freeman had the second-best rest-of-career WAR projection amongst 1B (behind Bellinger OOPS)

Dan Szymborski: Even by 2020, Freeman had solely slipped to fourth regardless of coming into his age 30 season

Dan Szymborski: In 2020 it was Bellinger (56.4, age 24), Alonso (32.0, age 25), and Olson (28.0, age 26)

Dan Szymborski: On that observe, time for me to go out for an additional wek!