Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Uneven Return From a Misplaced Season

The Padres proceed to sputter alongside, beneath .500 (27-32) and out of doors the playoff image. While Juan Soto has heated up, Manny Machado has prolonged the droop that he was in earlier than touchdown on the injured record with a fractured metacarpal, and Xander Bogaerts has underperformed whereas taking part in by a lingering wrist challenge for the previous month. As for Fernando Tatis Jr., he’s returned from a misplaced season that included a wrist fracture and an 80-game suspension for utilizing a banned substance, and whereas he’s been one of many Padres’ best hitters, his efficiency has been uneven, effectively in need of his superstar-level showings from 2019-21.

The circumstances surrounding Tatis’ left wrist fracture have but to be clarified totally, partly as a result of he couldn’t talk with the Padres in the course of the lockout, however he’s believed to have suffered the damage throughout one of many a number of (!) motorbike accidents he was concerned in whereas within the Dominican Republic in the course of the 2021-22 offseason. He apparently didn’t begin feeling the results of the damage till he started taking swings in mid-February in preparation for spring coaching, however solely after the lockout ended did the workforce uncover the damage. He underwent surgical procedure to restore his scaphoid bone on March 16, and his restoration took longer than anticipated. Four video games into his rehab stint, Major League Baseball introduced that he had incurred an 80-game suspension for testing optimistic for Clostebol, an anabolic steroid prohibited underneath the league’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program, a shock and disappointment given each his rising stature inside the sport and the tantalizing chance of him becoming a member of a revamped Padres lineup.

Tatis’ suspension ran by the Padres’ closing 48 common season video games, their 12-game postseason run (throughout which they reached the National League Championship Series after upsetting each the 101-win Mets and 111-win Dodgers), and their first 20 video games of this season. When he took the sector on April 20, within the Padres’ twenty first sport, he was 18 1/2 months faraway from his final common season main league sport. That’s a considerable slice of time in a 24-year-old participant’s life.

Tatis went 0-for-5 with a pair of strikeouts in his first sport again, then ran off a nine-game hitting streak throughout which he went 14-for-41. Since then, he’s largely leveled off, with multi-hit video games right here, 0-fers there, and these days, a burst of energy. After hitting three doubles and driving in 4 runs final Thursday towards the Marlins, Tatis bashed two homers on Saturday towards the Cubs, bringing his complete to 11 on the season, together with six inside a 14-game span. He hit a pair towards the Red Sox on May 19 and 20, and one other pair towards the Yankees on May 26 and 27. Some of these pictures have come towards big-name pitchers, although to be honest James Paxton, Chris Sale, and Luis Severino aren’t who they was.

I used to be at Yankee Stadium for Tatis’ May 26 homer off Ron Marinaccio. In my part simply to the third base aspect of dwelling plate, it was instantly preceded by a lone voice shouting, “Cheater!” — with comparable jeers elsewhere — and Tatis’ response was significantly emphatic. His 113.4-mph drive was the quickest ball off his bat since his return, and at 439 toes, it had the second-longest projected distance. While Tatis had carried out the same old ceremony of public contrition when he was suspended — a ritual that like so many different PED-related ones included a relatively doubtful rationalization (a medicine to deal with ringworm that contained Clostebol?) — he has rolled with the notoriety whereas humoring the boo-birds which have greeted him in visiting ballparks. Here he’s dancing at Wrigley Field after being serenaded with a “He’s on steroids!” chant on April 26:

Fernando Tatis Jr. simply dancing by the “he’s on steroids” heckling at Wrigley ? pic.twitter.com/F58JQwhHE6

— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) April 26, 2023

And right here he’s taking part in conductor to a symphony of disapproving Yankee Stadium followers on May 26:

Tatis had Yankees followers in tears tonight pic.twitter.com/XSIvRt71ak

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 27, 2023

At least within the annals of baseball, I’m undecided we’ve ever seen a participant react fairly like this upon coming back from a PED-related suspension. We’re a good distance from Rafael Palmeiro stuffing wads of cotton in his ears in a futile try and drown out the boos following his return from a suspension in 2005, although that in all probability owed one thing to the person’s self-righteous finger-pointing throughout his Congressional testimony simply months earlier. Perhaps Tatis is reacting this fashion as a result of he nonetheless has the monetary safety of his 14-year, $340 million contract, and a very long time within the public highlight forward of him. Or maybe he simply doesn’t match the stereotype of the combative and paranoid PED consumer who appears to be at battle with nearly everybody else inside the sport — our collective projection of Barry Bonds, who was by no means really suspended however spent the final half-decade of his profession within the shadow of the BALCO investigation and in a joyless pursuit of Hank Aaron’s all-time dwelling run document.

This is, on the very least, extra enjoyable than that, which isn’t to condone Tatis’ use of a banned substance or dismiss the frustration and unhappiness caused by his suspension. But now that he’s again and taking part in, it appears much better that he’s resumed displaying his irrepressible joie de vivre than finishing up some prolonged, performative sulking. I can solely think about that the folks most aggravated by his present comportment are the identical ones who would relatively combat a tradition battle — or on the very least incite a beanball battle — than admit to having fun with a bat flip.

“I just embrace it,” Tatis mentioned of his reception at Yankee Stadium. “There’s times that you can give a little bit back to the fans. There are times that, depends on the game, you just need to focus and lock it in. This game belongs to the fans, and it’s just good to give a good show out there.”

As for his precise efficiency, Tatis is hitting .263/.311/.509. On the one hand, that’s fairly stable for a man who missed a full season and underwent surgical procedures not solely on his left wrist but in addition the torn labrum in his left shoulder. He sustained at the least 4 subluxations of the joint that precipitated him to overlook video games in 2021, and the suspension allowed him an extended time to recuperate. On the opposite hand, whereas Tatis’ 123 wRC+ is second on the Padres behind Soto’s 151, it’s a far cry from the 157 he put up in 2021 whereas batting .282/.364/.611 with an NL-high 42 homers, or the 153 mark he owned for his profession getting into this season.

As you would possibly suspect, Tatis isn’t hitting the ball as arduous as he did previous to his surgical procedures and suspension:

While it’s true that Tatis has performed solely 39 video games since returning, just below 1 / 4 of a season, we’re not speaking a couple of small pattern anymore, on condition that exit velocity begins to stabilize round 40 batted ball occasions, barrel charge round 50, and hard-hit charge round 80. Tatis’ common exit velocity is down by a full three ticks. If we place that within the context of year-to-year drops — as in, with no misplaced seasons — that seems to be considerably uncommon. Only 10 gamers with at the least 300 PA in 2021 and 150 in ’22 had drop-offs of that magnitude or larger, and solely six have had bigger ones from ’22 to ’23. Nobody in that window has a bigger year-to-year drop in barrel charge:

In truth, given these PA cutoffs, I discovered just one participant in your complete Statcast period whose year-to-year decline even got here shut: Aaron Judge, who fell from 24.9% in his monster rookie marketing campaign in 2017 to a still-impressive 15.4% the subsequent yr. While that represented a 9.5-point dive, Judge merely fell from the one hundredth percentile to the 98th. Like Judge, Tatis at the least has had the cushion to fall off from an ideal peak and stay distinctive; in his case, he’s dropped from the 99th percentile to the 78th by way of barrel charge, from the 98th to the 76th in common exit velocity, and from the 98th to the 68th in hard-hit charge. And in fact he has good purpose, given the layoff and significantly the labrum surgical procedure.

I’d be overstating the case if I mentioned that Tatis’ rolling exit velocities, hard-hit charges, and xSLGs on a 50- or 75-batted ball foundation recommend that he’s trending in the appropriate path; I may present you a plot that makes the case that he’s…

…and one other that means he’s not:

Baseball Savant doesn’t supply rolling barrel charges, and I’m not about to crunch this all by hand, however what I can let you know is that if we divide his season up into thirds, we do see some optimistic motion by way of barrel charge and most exit velocity:

Note the lower in launch angle, nevertheless. Tatis is hitting the ball on the bottom extra typically than in 2021 (44.2% vs. 40.2%) however much less typically than in ’20 or ’19. On that observe, he’s pulling the ball a bit much less typically than in 2021 (46.5% vs. 48%) however extra typically than in ’20 or ’19 — all of which is to say that relative to latest years, his batted balls are fairly comparable by way of placement. Where they differ dramatically is the quantity of carry he’s getting on fly balls:

Oof. Some of that decline might owe to a deader baseball — the league-wide common fly ball distance has dropped from 318 toes in 2021 to 315 toes this yr — however even when we account for that, Tatis has gone from hitting flies that common 36 toes extra carry relative to the league to ones that common 4 toes much less, a swing of 40 toes. Even limiting the league-wide information to early-season charges (317 toes in 2021, 313 this yr) doesn’t mitigate that a lot.

Beyond what’s taking place when Tatis makes contact, there’s what’s taking place when he isn’t. He’s swinging at extra pitches than ever, by lots, however most of that is because of pitches within the strike zone, of which he’s seeing the next proportion:

Tatis is chasing barely extra pitches, however I don’t suppose this suits the same old sample of elevated swing and chase charges that is likely to be thought-about urgent, significantly as he’s swinging and lacking much less typically; as you may see, he’s lower each his stroll and strikeout charges, the latter by a large margin. Where he’s actually struggling is when he makes contact whereas chasing; he hit .118 and slugged .221 with a median exit velo of 84.9 mph in 2021 — already fairly unhealthy — however is now right down to .085 AVG/.106 SLG whereas averaging 76 mph. Yikes.

Pitch type-wise, Tatis is whiffing extra towards four-seamers relative to 2021 (31.3% vs. 27.6%) however he’s additionally slugging .833 (up from .761) and is above-average towards them in Statcast run values, if not on the identical charge (2.2 runs per 100, down from 2.9). He’s been feasting on sliders, which symbolize a giant a part of his food regimen (19.3%), however scuffling towards cutters, that are comparatively uncommon (8.2%).

On the defensive aspect, there’s some excellent news, as Tatis’ transition to full-time outfield play couldn’t be going a lot better based mostly upon the metrics. While maintaining in thoughts that the samples are nonetheless small, his numbers without any consideration fielder are elite, largely owing to his vary: 9 DRS, 4.9 UZR, 4 OAA. The final of these leads all proper fielders, whereas the DRS is second and the UZR third. Via Statcast, not solely is his OAA within the ninety fifth percentile amongst all outfielders, his jumps are within the 98th, his arm power within the 99th. Particularly when one considers that his numbers at shortstop had been at finest a combined bag (-6 DRS, -7.5 UZR, 2 OAA in 2021), the transfer does appear to be paying off with out costing him worth.

Taken collectively, Tatis’ offensive and defensive numbers carry some excellent news and unhealthy, that after he’s performed roughly a quarter-season following a full-year layoff. I don’t know that we’ll ever see the outstanding thumper we noticed circa 2021, however I’d hardly rule it out solely given his age and the likelihood that extra time to recuperate from his shoulder surgical procedure and maybe handle his mechanics may show useful. Even recognizing the sector the primary 20 video games of the season, he ranks twenty third within the NL in WAR at 1.5, a tempo of 5.4 per 650 PA. That’s nonetheless star-level, and he stays an distinctive participant, in addition to an thrilling one. While his presence and efficiency gained’t clear up all the Padres’ present issues, and whereas he gained’t win again each fan he misplaced as a result of his foolishness and his suspension, the sport is best for his return.