Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/6/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people! Welcome to my first chat of June and my final one earlier than embarking upon the annual household journey to Cape Cod

Jay Jaffe: I’m battling my approach by way of again spasms that started after I was warming up my daughter for her final Little League sport (of the season for certain, of her “career” probably)

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow I’ll have a tribute to Roger Craig, whose biggest contribution to baseball was in educating the split-fingered fastball to a technology of pitchers, to such an extent that it grew to become “The Pitch of the ’80s”

Jay Jaffe: he’s received minor league choices, time to shuffle off to Buffalo.

Farhandrew Zaidman: DeGrom is the trendy day Dwight Gooden? Absurd peak, unquestionably the most effective in his day, not a HOF.

Jay Jaffe: He’s nearer to the modern-day Koufax, however Johan Santana or Cliff Lee are extra apt comparisons. Gooden had a prolonged again finish to his profession and did attain 194 wins and a couple of,800 innings. deGrom is 35 and has 84 wins and 1,356 innings, which is nearer to Santana and Lee.

Isaac Huey: If you needed to guess, what number of present Braves are HOFers?

Jay Jaffe: the one one I’d put cash on could be Ronald Acuña Jr., who… (followers self)

Isaac: What is your mount Rushmore at every place?

Jay Jaffe: Good lord, leaving apart the truth that i *hate* the Rushmore configuration (prime 4), you’re asking me to spend time arising with an inventory of 36 or extra gamers in the course of a chat.

Jay Jaffe: that could possibly be every week of articles

Jay Jaffe: not that i’m inclined

Isaac Huey: Who do you suppose is best on the identical age, Acuna or Aaron?

Jay Jaffe: Aaron and it’s not even shut, partially as a result of taking part in time hole. 151-135 edge in OPS+, 38.7 to twenty.9 in bWAR, plus two pennants (one WS win) and an MVP

Isaac Huey: If all groups perished tomorrow besides the Oakland A’s, what are their possibilities of climbing out of the cellar?

Jay Jaffe: I feel they might win the Triple-A championship.

Chip: Is Father Time lastly catching as much as Justin Verlander?

Jay Jaffe: perhaps. He’s had three good begins, one so-so one, and two dangerous ones, one among which was at Coors, however past that the velo and strikeout charge are down, xERA is up. Stuff+ sees critical declines in each his fastball and changeup.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t depend him out simply but. Just a few weeks in the past I began raking the filth for a spot to start the burial proceedings for Scherzer and he’s actually gotten it collectively.

Brian C.: In the occasion that Judge’s stubbed toe requires the total amputation of his leg, will our insurance coverage coverage require that we search compensation from the Dodgers for his or her malicious failure to Judge-proof their stadium infrastructure?

Jay Jaffe: it’s been 10 years since Bryce Harper concussed himself by operating into the outfield wall in Dodger Stadium. It is greater than goddamn time for the Dodgers to make it safer

Fishersniffshisfarts: NV leg did not take up ballpark invoice in common session, D-controlled leg won’t put invoice on agenda for particular session and Gov can’t do something about it … I ought to simply promote and hope everybody forgets about me, proper?

Jay Jaffe: with out figuring out a lot about Nevada politics, I wouldn’t learn a ton into the dearth of a particular session simply but. I think about that that is much less a principled opposition to the A’s transferring to Las Vegas than a method of getting Fisher to decrease his ask earlier than a invoice will be thought-about. Which, good on LV and LOLA’s

Jason: Where would you rank Corbin Carroll by way of early season MVP candidates? I think about he’s behind Acuña and Freeman for certain, however after that it looks as if he has an outdoor shot if he/the crew proceed to carry out.

Jay Jaffe: I feel you’d must put Sean Murphy and Mookie Betts into the dialog as nicely, and Arraez goes to get help if he’s chasing .400. But proper now Carroll appears to be like like he belongs within the dialogue

Fletcher: Does the tightening of the vary of framing influence in recent times have an effect on the way you think about the huge framing values that Posey, Lucroy, Molina, and so forth put up in ’08-14ish? Should they be getting credited that a lot for being good framers in an period when groups had been taking part in Ryan Doumit and different atrocious framers producing historic unfavourable worth that needed to be offset leaguewide?

Jay Jaffe: it’s context to concentrate on, not in contrast to how Babe Ruth and Honus Wagner and even Willie Mays dominated their leagues in WAR. you’re measuring a participant’s distance from the group, and the reducing extremes are proof of the standard of play rising over time.

Jasper: More possible: Rays 10-game dropping streak or A’s 10-game successful streak?

Jay Jaffe: The former. Even excellent groups have dangerous luck and slumps generally

Las Vegas A’s: Hey, the Nevada legislative session ended with no ballpark invoice for Las Vegas, and governor and speaker of the House are at odds over whether or not a stadium invoice can be thought-about in particular session. Think perhaps the A’s group screwed themselves over? (Am I fallacious to be having fun with this?)

Jay Jaffe: I’m undecided whether or not the A’s truly screwed themselves over but, however you should purchase the most important spoon you may to eat this up for the second.

Farhandrew Zaidman: There is a stirring dialogue on Sporer’s discord on whether or not DeGrom is HOF worthy or not, and it’s…uhh…fairly divided lol.

Jay Jaffe: In the spring of 2021 I made a case that he could possibly be a Koufaxian exception (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jacob-degrom-might-be-blazing-his-way-to-c…). That owed so much to his ZiPS projections for his ages 33-41 seasons: 76-44, 3.25 ERA, 182 begins, 28.7 WAR. Since then — 2 1/3 seasons later — he’s made 32 begins and added 6.7 WAR and the remaining profession projections have come down.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: and he … doesn’t have 20 remaining begins anymore.

Jay Jaffe: i don’t suppose i’d vote for the “current career projection” line above

Guest: what’s your mount rushmore of dangerous rating configurations?

Jay Jaffe: occupying the primary head on Mount Rushmore could be “My Hanukkah Menorah of Great ______”

Jay Jaffe: subsequent to that “A Baker’s Dozen of the Best _______”

Jay Jaffe: In honor of Abe Lincolns’ spot on the precise Rushmore, right here’s “Four Score and Seven of the Best ________”

Jay Jaffe: and eventually a Rushmore on Rushmore, as a result of why do we have to confine ourselves to 4 if we’ve 5 fingers? I could also be an previous man yelling at clouds, however this ain’t Springfield.

Guest: Why don’t main league schedulers make some effort to scale back the variety of further miles the Mariners and some different outliers should journey yearly?

Jay Jaffe: You know, the added journey burden on west coast groups is my largest beef concerning the new schedule. IIRC, the so-called balanced schedule added  about 7% to the full variety of air miles traveled by the 30 groups, with the Mariners roughly in keeping with that and the A’s growing by like 20%. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/map?team=&year=2023

Jay Jaffe: Given all that we’ve realized about journey’s impact on the physique and sleep, you’d suppose we must be attempting to attenuate these items. And perhaps there are fewer instances the place gamers have to leap from Pacific to Eastern (the massive one) that offset this, i don’t know, however I feel the gamers have reliable beef right here

Erik: Combining your specialty with the massive information of the day: Elly de la Cruz, surefire inner-circle Hall of Famer and even higher than that?

Jay Jaffe: a ton of Elly questions within the queue. I’m excited for his debut, too! But I gained’t fake to know whether or not he’s going to gentle it up initially. I’ll say that debuting at 21 doesn’t give the participant pretty much as good odds of reaching the Hall as debuting at 20 or 19. This is a pair years previous however is kind of adequate:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: I’m simply filled with screenshots to previous tables right this moment

RA Niekro: Where do the Mets go from right here?  Just hope the previous guys carry out higher going ahead?

Jay Jaffe: DH is a commerce deadline resolution and maybe one outfield spot as nicely, however they’ve introduced up the children (Alvarez, Baty, Vientos) and want McNeil and Lindor to hit like they did final 12 months, on the very least, and  getting Canha and/or Marte going could be useful too

Alex: In gentle of the PGA Tour/LIV golf merger, when are you going to announce that you may be collaborating with Jack Morris on his new as-told-to autobiography “Hall-of-Famer”?

Jay Jaffe: LOL. Morris does function in my Roger Craig tribute, as he was an early adopter who discovered nice success with the splitter, although Sparky Anderson thought that messing with the splitter precipitated his different pitches to deteriorate

lee_rumbah: Favorite rookie pitcher to date? I didn’t catch the Abbot begin however Bobby Miller has the appears to be like of a frontliner.

Jay Jaffe: I can’t declare something near a complete view of all the oldsters folks may title however I’ve been very impressed by Bobby Miller and Yennier Cano

Anon21: Such unhappy information about Strasburg’s continued setbacks and every day ache. I hate the Nationals and am glad on the whole that they’ve fallen aside, however I discover it exhausting to fault their decisionmaking in selecting to construct round him, it appeared like a good suggestion on the time.

Jay Jaffe: They had been a bit too giddy in re-signing him after he opted out, however rattling did he come up large in 2019. He’ll be high-quality financially, obv, however it’s heartbreaking to see a pitcher with Hall-caliber expertise disintegrate like this and never even get the prospect to pitch

Joe: Is Mike Trout’s peak over? Obviously nonetheless nice participant however that is the primary 12 months the place he appears to be like mortal

Jay Jaffe: sure, this can be true. We’re off by a number of days which have lowered his wRC+ to 133, however his 144 by way of the tip of May was his lowest:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: i solely see a small handful of two-month spans the place he had a decrease wRC+ than that — although that is abiding by a strict calendar month construction, and I think about we will discover some much less flattering 60-game spans as nicely by transferring the endpoints

Guest: As HOF guru, assist me get previous two travesties. Pete Rose was one of many biggest gamers of all time.  His playing got here nicely after he retired as a participant.  The hypocrisy of MLB now embracing playing websites must be the tipping level for Rose to get in.  On the flip aspect, I can’t get previous the Harold Baines induction. There have to be 50 guys extra deserving that received overlooked. How are you able to assist forestall that from taking place once more?

Jay Jaffe: Players have been prohibited from playing on baseball, with information that the could be banned for all times for doing so, since Landis handed down his ban on the Black Sox greater than a century in the past. Nothing MLB does on the subject of entering into mattress with playing firms mitigates that one iota.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Is “WAR/GS” a stat that at the moment exists for SP, and if not, wouldn’t it be useful in any respect for the way forward for SP within the HOF (within the context of declining innings pitched)?

Jay Jaffe: I generally poke round with a WAR/200 (innings) as a cross-era comparative gadget. It’s value keeping track of

Marshall: In a current chat you made a pair references to a participant having some variety of “HoF seasons” vs (I feel) “good” seasons. What is your cutoff for a HoF season, and what number of do you view as mandatory for enshrinement?

Jay Jaffe: after I say “HOF seasons” I imply “useful in building a foundation of a Hall of Fame case,” which isn’t to say that they want be elite seasons. Generally that begins round 4.5 WAR. You’re not getting in if these are your greatest years, and even your common throughout a 7-year peak, but when these are the worst of your 7-year peak (or gained’t even match into it) then you definitely’re in all probability attending to the purpose of an affordable case.

Jay Jaffe: that is whereas acknowledging that one participant’s 4.5 season may look an entire lot higher than one other participant’s 5.0 WAR season as soon as we convey extra context into it (he gained awards, led league in one thing, All-Star, did it in compressed period of time)

Pixley: In or out on Casas? I really feel like a crew that thinks they will make the playoffs cant cope with this all season. Is there any hope for him? plate self-discipline solely counts for a lot , if there’s nothing else there

Jay Jaffe: The Red Sox actually do have to ship him down for a number of weeks and get a reset. He’s lagging relative to his Statcast anticipated numbers however  -0.3 WAR ain’t chopping it.

Sammy So-so: I get the sensation that Volpe’s not going to make it to the All-Star break with no return journey to the minors. Is it clear to you what’s significantly ailing him as a hitter? Thanks, Jay.

Jay Jaffe: Volpe’s lagging too, by the same margin (34 factors of wOBA), however the distinction is that his pace and protection have him value 0.4 WAR. he’s actually combating contact on the backside of the zone, particularly sinkers for some motive. Not certain what’s up there.

Jay Jaffe: But I don’t see the Yankees in a rush to ship him down now that they’re taking part in nicely

RAndoM121: Would a borderline HOF participant get a bump in voting had they performed their entire profession with a single crew?

Jay Jaffe: it could in all probability assist a bit.

Joe Randa: Assuming he will get nearer his earlier type, what would you suppose Tatis HOF likelihood is? He looks as if an attention-grabbing case research given his trajectory previous to 2022 and his capability to “redeem” himself after the suspension.

Jay Jaffe: We’re in uncharted territory right here. If Tatis is a mannequin citizen for the remainder of his profession — by which I imply no PED points or different icky stuff, not all of a sudden changing into some boring regular button-down dude — I might suppose he’ll get a shot on the “redemption” angle in a approach that others haven’t however we’re 20 years away from that, and he’s received an entire lot of floor to cowl between at times

v2micca: Given Soroka’s demotion to AAA, are the Braves probably going to provide Smith-Shawver a shot on the rotation?

Babipski: Something I’ve been fascinated by not too long ago, and wished to see if of anybody who has severely contemplated it: is there a quantifiable change in league-wide babip that occurred as many groups moved away from the extremely bouncy turf of the concrete donut stadiums within the 90’s?

Jay Jaffe: sure. it rose fairly rapidly. .281 in 1992, .294 in 1995, after enlargement into Miami and Colorado and the beginning of the massive constructing increase

Guest: Masa Yoshida is at the moment slashing .312/.389/.495. Has any rookie ever slashed .300/.400/.500 earlier than? Mike Trout was at a .399 OBP in 2012

Jay Jaffe: Yordan Alvarez hit .313/.412/.655 in 369 PA in 2019. Pujols, Fred Lynn, Ted Williams, Paul Waner among the many others

https://stathead.com/tiny/pFA1V

A Boy Named Yu: Is Mervis going to begin mashing anytime quickly?

Jay Jaffe: i really like the nickname however the scouting grades at all times prompt he was extra of a venture than a real prospect. His xSLG and xBA are higher than his precise numbers however he’s going to must enlarge advances

Jason: Is there a stats like Wins Above Average Player? Only asking as a result of wRC+, OPS+, ERA-/+ all modify to league common, but the most typical valuation of a participant is WAR. Would it not make sense to have that stat? Is a mean participant at 1 WAR? So we will simply modify the dimensions of WAR to get that worth?

Jay Jaffe: First off, 2 WAR is about common for a full season of taking part in time.

B-Ref tracks WAA on its participant pages. WAA is beneficial but it surely doesn’t convey quantity, and quantity issues. if a man is 1 WAA, we don’t know whether or not that’s in 100 PA or 600. If he’s 3 WAR we a minimum of know he received a subtantial quantity of taking part in time to construct to that quantity

Jay Jaffe: Volume particularly issues on the subject of Hall stuff since there are thresholds beneath which gamers don’t get thought-about. Ichiro and Bryce Harper have roughly the identical WAA (0.1 distinction) however one has over 3,000 hits (computerized) and the opposite 1,412 (not sufficient to get elected).

Ben: Do you might have a basic rule/thought on when to let a younger participant battle v sending him right down to work it out not within the highlight?  Is it concerning the crew’s objective (which means how the crew is doing) v. one thing else?

Jay Jaffe: We can have a look at indicators of controlling the strike zone and precise vs anticipated outcomes however actually I feel there are plenty of delicate elements that may and may go into the choice. Is this man spiraling when he’s received dangerous outcomes? Is he having aggressive at-bats? is there one thing occurring harm or mechanic-wise that we’re not conscious of? There’s so much solely a crew can reply, which once more is why i don’t suppose the Yankees are inclined to ship Volpe down, as a result of they rave concerning the child’s make-up and changes and poise, et.c

Jason: As somebody who hasn’t been to Cooperstown since 2013, have there been noticeable modifications previously decade that warrant a brand new go to?

Jay Jaffe: Yes. Very, very a lot sure. The “A Whole New Ballgame” exhibit,” which was put in in 2015, is vibrant and introduced the museum in to the twenty first century, and extra not too long ago, I LOVE the baseball card exhibit. They’ve expanded the ladies in baseball exhibit, and extra. Get thee to Cooperstown in the event you can!

Chichikov: Theoretically  small HOF would have __ gamers born per decade and an enormous HOF would have __ gamers born per decade.

Jay Jaffe: I consider it extra by way of HOFers per team-season, with 1.0 too low and a couple of.0 perhaps a bit excessive however reflective of precise membership in some eras.

Jason N: Great Tatis article.  In your opinion, which of those are the first drivers for his uneven efficiency 1) Rust. 2) No extra roids. 3) Shoulder surgical procedure. 4) Normal year-to-year efficiency variance?

Jay Jaffe: I feel the massive factor is the shoulder and the rust. He by no means examined optimistic whereas placing up main league numbers so I don’t suppose it’s proper to attribute his fall-off to that when extra apparent explanations exist.

Duff’s or Anchor Bar?: Manoah optioned to Buffalo!

Jay Jaffe: They’re studying my chat!

Jay Jaffe: Ok people, thanks for the entire nice q right this moment, these two hours went rapidly. Next time I rap at ya it will likely be from the sector workplace in Wellfleet, Massachusetts!

Guest: If Elvis Andrus hypothetically performed one other ten seasons to age 44, averaged 100 hits per season and received to three,000 hits, would he be a Hall of Famer?

Jay Jaffe: Hall of Nick Markakis.