Dane Dunning Can’t Maintain Getting Away With This!

The Texas Rangers, as you may need heard, are in first place. And that doesn’t even inform the entire story; the Rangers are presently on a 106-win tempo, and consider it or not, they’re underperforming their Pythagorean file by 4 video games. And they’ve executed quite a lot of it with out the perfect pitcher on the earth.

Jacob deGrom, foremost among the many quite a few high-profile free agent arms Texas has invested in over current years, has spent the previous month on the IL with elbow irritation. A sluggish restoration led the Rangers to maneuver the two-time Cy Young winner to the 60-day IL on Monday. That precludes deGrom from returning to motion earlier than the top of June — which can or might not have been within the playing cards anyway.

But the Rangers have coped simply advantageous with out deGrom all through May thanks in no small half to Dane Dunning, who began the 12 months as a reliever however has matched deGrom’s outcomes.

Even acknowledging that there isn’t a pitcher fairly like deGrom, Dunning couldn’t be extra totally different stylistically. None of Dunning’s pitches averages greater than 90.6 mph. His strikeout fee, 16.6%, ranks simply 104th out of 122 pitchers with no less than 40 innings pitched this season. But amongst that set, he has the second-lowest ERA; just one different pitcher, Dustin May, has an ERA under 3.00 and a Ok% beneath 20%.

Dunning, 28, made no less than 25 begins in every of the previous two seasons earlier than being displaced by deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney. He spent the primary month of the season in a multi-inning aid function, the place he was excellent in a small pattern — zero earned runs over his first six appearances, a span of 17 innings.

Shuttling backwards and forwards from the rotation to the bullpen is nothing new for Dunning, who was one thing of a forgotten man on one of the crucial loaded pitching staffs ever assembled. (Yes, I’m going to speak about his faculty profession, as a result of the 2016 Florida Gators are certainly one of my favourite baseball groups ever.) In Dunning’s draft 12 months, Florida used 13 pitchers for a couple of inning of labor. Every single certainly one of them obtained drafted, six of them — together with Dunning — within the high 50 picks. Seven pitchers from that crew have made the majors thus far. The Gators additionally had Jonathan India and Pete Alonso on the infield corners. Absolutely loaded crew.

With Logan Shore, Alex Faedo, and A.J. Puk within the weekend rotation, Florida used Dunning (in addition to future first-rounders Jackson Kowar and Brady Singer) in a hybrid reliever/midweek starter function, and Dunning excelled. He completed third on the crew in innings, and posted a 2.29 ERA and a 7.33 Ok/BB ratio. That obtained him drafted within the first spherical by the Nationals, who a number of months later despatched him to Chicago because the least vital element of the Adam Eaton/Lucas Giolito commerce. Four years after that, Dunning obtained swapped for Lance Lynn, which is how he got here to be in Texas.

Invoking Puk and the Florida pitching improvement juggernaut makes Dunning sound like an influence arm, however he’s not. And whereas his Location+ numbers and stroll fee are good, they’re nothing out of the strange.

So how is that this man with a fastball velocity and strikeout fee out of the early Nineteen Nineties maintaining with the perfect pitcher of his technology?

A pair months again, I had quite a lot of enjoyable writing a bit referred to as “What the Frig is Brent Honeywell Jr. Throwing?” through which I examined Honeywell’s changeup and screwball. For Dunning, the query is “What the Frig Isn’t Dane Dunning throwing?” Out of the 414 pitchers on Baseball Savant’s pitch arsenal leaderboard, 55 have registered six or extra pitch sorts this season. (Yu Darvish and Chris Bassitt lead the league with eight.) But a few of these are one-offs or potential coding errors. Dunning is certainly one of simply 17 pitchers who’s thrown six or extra pitches no less than 4% of the time this season:

Yeah, I picked that 4% cutoff mark for a cause. What are you gonna do about it?

Here’s one other option to put it. Dunning doesn’t use any of his pitches greater than 29.2% of the time. Out of these 414 pitchers, solely 20 use their most typical pitch much less continuously than Dunning. Dunning throws all six pitches to batters on either side of the plate, and this Nineteen Nineties Wendy’s salad bar of choices has led to related outcomes. Setting apart the curveball, Dunning’s different 5 pitches have led to an opponent wOBA between .233 and .306 and a strikeout fee between 12.5% and 24.4%.

The curveball numbers are a bit wonky as a result of Dunning throws it solely early within the depend. Out of all of his pitches, it’s the one one which sits outdoors the 82 to 91 mph vary, and it has way more downward and glove-side break than his slider. You know, it’s a curveball. He’s thrown it simply 34 occasions this 12 months, and 25 of these have been on the primary pitch of an at-bat. Having one thing bizarre to shock hitters with for strike one is a helpful talent, however the curveball is seldom the decisive pitch of the at-bat. Dunning has hit a batter with it, and produced 5 swings: three whiffs, a single, and a groundout.

There are 3 ways to have a look at the “How is Dane Dunning doing it?” query. There’s the approach strategy, the predictive strategy, and the descriptive strategy. And from a predictive standpoint, I believe that Dunning is not going to finish the season with an ERA of two.06. He’s obtained some regarding underlying numbers, like a career-low .265 BABIP (down from .338 and .313 within the earlier two seasons), and a 69-point hole between his opponent wOBA and xwOBA. His xERA is 4.07, and so forth.

Still, he’s retaining the ball off opponent’s barrels and never permitting many walks. If he does regress, it must be to merely league-average ranges. And that leaves the descriptive query. Even if it doesn’t final, Dunning has one of many lowest ERAs within the league, and never simply due to his sizzling begin out of the bullpen. Dunning has an ERA of two.28 since returning to the rotation, and regardless of a .314 BABIP, opponents have an OPS of simply .588. And utilizing that 40-inning cutoff, Dunning has a top-10 FIP in baseball too, regardless of not placing anyone out.

So what’s up? What sort of magic is he utilizing?

Four statistics go into FIP: strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and residential runs. And Dunning, in 48 innings pitched this season, has not allowed a house run. The solely different pitchers to throw greater than 30 innings and never permit a house run this 12 months are Yennier Cano and Brent Suter. (Give ‘em hell, Brent Suter!)

Dunning isn’t giving out free passes, and whereas he does hand over quite a lot of contact, the injury from mentioned contact has been restricted. Going again to that 40-inning cutoff, Dunning is twenty fourth in baseball in GB/FB ratio, and when he does hand over balls within the air, they don’t are typically that harmful:

Baseball Savant has 34 fly balls within the database for Dunning this 12 months; the xBA on 21 of them was .075 or under. Dunning has given up 4 hits — a single and three doubles — on fly balls this 12 months. And this was one of many doubles:

Most offense comes from balls hit within the air, and since Dunning isn’t permitting any injury, his opponent ISO of .051 is the bottom in baseball. Good luck scoring off a man who doesn’t stroll anybody or permit extra-base hits.

The Rangers can be with out deGrom no less than one other three weeks, and given his historical past, Texas can in all probability count on to be with out their ace for a superb chunk of the remaining video games. The longer Dunning can maintain his opponents scrambling for singles, the longer the Rangers will have the ability to stand up to deGrom’s absence.