The Strawman Fieldeth

A straw man, per the Cambridge Dictionary, is “an argument, claim, or opponent that is invented in order to win or create an argument.” The time period also can consult with “someone, often an imaginary person, who is used to hide an illegal or secret activity.” The Strawman, with out the area, is a nickname I like to make use of for Guardians heart fielder Myles Straw, a person whose spectacular outfield protection is the stuff of creativeness; his elite velocity and flying leaps would have you ever consider he’s a comic book e book hero invented with the intention to win ballgames.

Perhaps the entire superhero nickname factor for nice ballplayers has been completed to demise at this level, however then once more, so has the entire superhero factor basically. If Marvel can hold pumping out motion pictures, then I can hold pumping out nicknames. Besides, this comparability feels particularly apt; Straw performs for the Guardians, in any case.

From 2021 to ’22, Straw racked up 22 OAA, tied with Michael A. Taylor for many within the American League. He posted 5.1 WAR in 310 video games, 14th amongst heart fielders regardless of single-digit dwelling run totals and an 81 wRC+. All the defensive metrics agreed that Straw was the most effective within the recreation; his 22 UZR ranked second amongst outfielders, and his 21 DRS ranked third. Baseball Prospectus rated him as essentially the most invaluable defensive participant in baseball by DRP.

Then got here 2023. If Straw had been a superhero, this might be the purpose in his narrative arc when his powers come into query. Through 59 video games in heart discipline, he has a stunning -2 OAA. That places him within the twenty first percentile league-wide, only a 12 months after he completed within the 98th. His -0.2 WAR ranks final amongst certified outfielders, and one way or the other, his protection has been a good larger legal responsibility than his offense to date. Suffice it to say, that’s an issue for a middle fielder with a 71 wRC+.

This isn’t simply an OAA challenge, both. By UZR, Straw ranks among the many backside 5 outfielders within the majors, simply forward of Kyle Schwarber, arguably the worst defensive outfielder within the recreation. Straw’s -0.5 DRP is healthier than his UZR, and his +1 DRS is healthier nonetheless, however the total level stays: His protection appears to have taken an enormous step again. None of the metrics see him as an elite defender this season, and just one has him above league common. The small pattern measurement warning applies, besides, this can be a unusual flip of occasions for a younger participant who has been the definition of consistency since becoming a member of the Guardians on the 2021 commerce deadline:

My fast assumption was that Straw should have gotten slower; maybe he was enjoying by means of an unrevealed harm. But it doesn’t appear to be his bodily abilities have taken a success. Straw has been wholesome and sturdy all through his time in Cleveland, and at 28 years outdated, he nonetheless has years of youth forward of him. His dash velocity and time to first base stay the identical, and he’s tied for eighth within the AL with 14 bolts (any run above 30 ft/sec). Thanks to the helpful racing device at Baseball Savant, we will even watch Straw race his previous self down the road. Here’s 2022 Straw in comparison with 2023… or perhaps it’s the opposite manner round. It’s onerous to maintain observe when the distinction is so inconsequential:

But whereas Straw is working as quick as ever, his outfielder soar, as measured by Statcast, is noticeably worse. It sat within the 67th percentile in 2021 and the 58th in ’22, and this 12 months it’s fallen from the reds to the blues. To be truthful, he has by no means had terrific soar numbers, and that hasn’t been an issue. Nearly all of his defensive stats had been higher in 2022 than ’21, regardless of his soar numbers worsening. Moreover, an outfielder doesn’t essentially want nice jumps if he can run as quick as Straw can. In some circumstances, it’d even assist a fielder to get a barely slower begin, so long as he takes benefit of that further time to plan his route and makes use of his footspeed to compensate for the delayed response. Nevertheless, Straw’s declining outfielder soar along with his unfavorable OAA is a worrisome mixture:

What’s most upsetting of all is that we haven’t seen almost as many highlight-reel catches from a person usually able to filling SportsHeart’s Top Ten all on his personal. A fast search of MLB Film Room turned up solely three of Straw’s catches this 12 months that warranted highlights. One is an Anthony Volpe flyout, which required Straw to cowl an incredible quantity of floor from his preliminary place in shallow right-center to the warning observe on the deepest a part of Yankee Stadium. Still, Straw had loads of time to get there — he’s virtually jogging within the clip — and his little leap on the finish was extra for present than the rest:

The different two catches are nearly equivalent to 1 one other. A few liners from Jonathan Schoop and Avisaíl García allowed Straw to point out off his wheels, and he makes a pleasant seize every time. Still, you’re not profitable any Gold Gloves if that is the pièce de résistance of your spotlight reel:

I’ve been studying FanGraphs lengthy sufficient to know that good protection is about greater than internet gems, however on this case, Straw’s dearth of unimaginable catches is without doubt one of the main causes his fielding metrics are so poor. In 2022, he made eight four- or five-star catches (these with a Statcast catch chance of fifty% or decrease). The 12 months earlier than, he made seven. So far in 2023, he has but to make a single one. Furthermore, he solely has one three-star catch (chance between 51–75%), which is much more shocking, on condition that he cleaned up on three-star catches final season, making 21 in 26 possibilities.

Let’s begin by wanting on the lack of five-star catches, as a result of that’s the simplest to clarify. As the identify implies, these performs are few and much between. Only 16 gamers made multiple final season, and solely 10 made greater than two. It isn’t a trigger for concern that Straw doesn’t have one but; solely 1 / 4 of certified outfielders do. He had two final season and one other two the 12 months earlier than, and all 4 got here after the All-Star break. In 2021, each of them got here inside two weeks of each other. If Straw doesn’t have any five-star catches by September, then it could be time to reassess, however for now, it’s nothing to fret about. I wouldn’t be all that shocked if he made two within the subsequent week, capturing his OAA up into constructive territory.

As for the three- and four-star catches, Straw merely hasn’t had sufficient possibilities to make them. The charts under present his three- and four-star catch alternatives in 2022 and ’23 (by way of Baseball Savant):

His lone three-star catch in 2023 (the orange dot on the upper-right chart) was his working seize towards García. The ball had a 70% catch chance, thereby incomes him 0.3 of an out above common. The three-star alternative he missed (circled in inexperienced) had a 65% catch chance, so lacking it value him 0.65 of an out. Statcast, nonetheless, clearly doesn’t have an ideal grasp of the intricacies of the Green Monster. This might need been a catchable ball in most stadiums, however there’s no strategy to blame Straw for lacking this one:

Just as Straw will presumably make a five-star seize or two sooner or later down the road, he must also see extra three- and four-star alternatives. The ones he catches will hopefully make up for those he’s missed to date.

Straw has additionally bumbled a number of cans of corn this 12 months, one thing he didn’t do in any respect in 2022. These misplays have had a sizeable influence on his OAA since their catch possibilities had been so excessive, however just one was actually an indictment of his defensive abilities. Two had been excessive fly balls with a 99% catch chance that he misplaced amid a miscommunication along with his infielders. They had been unhealthy performs to make sure, however not in a manner that makes me fear about his protection going ahead. Then there was this liner from Kris Bryant. It’s clear that Straw misinterpret the ball, as he has to alter his route final minute to get behind it. With a greater learn, it’s simply the second out of the inning:

It’s not a wise play, however the final result was hardly disastrous. That was additionally the primary and solely ball with a catch chance between 90–95% that Straw has missed in his Guardians profession. Slip-ups occur, even to one of the best defenders, and because the 12 months goes on, these uncommon errors might be weighted much less closely in his total numbers.

The catch alternatives (or lack thereof) that Straw has had to date may additionally clarify his poor outfielder soar numbers. Outfielder soar measures a participant’s preliminary motion on two-, three-, four-, and five-star catch alternatives. So far in 2023, Straw’s alternatives have skewed to the extremes. In specific, he has had considerably extra five-star possibilities, and of these, 82% have had a catch chance of 5% or under:

That’s a excessive proportion of balls which can be almost uncatchable. On these performs, it stands to motive {that a} good outfielder would possibly take the time he must get behind the ball and discipline it on a hop quite than going all out on the off probability he could make a diving seize. I watched all 9 of Straw’s 5% catch alternatives this 12 months, and lo and behold, I wouldn’t say he was actively making an attempt to make the catch on any of them. But he additionally didn’t let a single one go previous him, both. Only two of these balls went for greater than a single: a double off the wall by Francisco Lindor, and a double to right-center by Triston Casas that would have been a triple if Straw weren’t there to chop it off:

More than nearly some other participant in baseball, Straw must be an elite defender to stay on a significant league roster; his offense actually isn’t protecting him employed. The Guardians, greater than some other group in baseball, want Gold Glove protection from their heart fielder; their league-worst offense actually isn’t getting them to the playoffs. Thankfully, Straw’s poor metrics don’t portend a significant defensive fall-off; he merely hasn’t the proper possibilities to make his mark. The Strawman nonetheless has all the required instruments in his fielding utility belt, and because the pattern measurement will increase, he needs to be simply positive.