Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/8/23

Dan Szymborski: It is time. A time. For chats.

Dan Szymborski: Or no less than as soon as!

B’ryce Szymbobski: EllyD… That is all.

Dan Szymborski: I received a DM from somebody actually aggravated I referred to him as Ellraiser

Bert: Hey Dan! The Cards, and others, want to present Jordan Walker extra time, proper? Especially with them being within the cellar.

Dan Szymborski: It was all the time iffy if this was the yr he was going to contribute, he has big upside, however the short-term was very uncertian

Dan Szymborski: Since the Cardinals have to seize lightning in a bottle to erase the deficit, they should be going for riskier upside gamers than they’re usually inclined to

Ted: What are your ideas on Bobby Witt Jr and his future?  Obviously, nonetheless a variety of time to be come the star folks thought he can be, however the begin to his profession has been underwhelming.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not super-worried for a number of causes. One, he’s simply turning 23 quickly. His protection has improved and his peripheral offensive stats counsel he should be hitting extra like he was final yr than this yr

Dan Szymborski: Now, his possibilities of being a significant famous person have in all probability declined, I nonetheless suppose he’s participant and could possibly be an excellent one

Eh?: Dan, are you able to simulate a photograph of a dugout-clearing brawl however with everybody operating onto the sphere with torches and pitchforks?

Dan Szymborski: We’ll see!

Dipoto: Do you consider mariners as presently constructed can be a part of the WC race assuming an affordable quantity of their gamers begin performing near projected output

Dan Szymborski: I believe they’ll and can possible be within the WC race.

Dan Szymborski: Not that they’ll’t enhance

Dan Szymborski: I believe they actually should be out there for a DH kind

Dan Szymborski: And Pollock’s stuff in all probability must be in a cardboard field on the curb

Dan Szymborski: The rotation has truly moved *up* in our rankings from the beginning of the yr!

Meow: Name the cutest factor your cats do

Dan Szymborski: Probably the presents they offer me. The catlets are preventing over a toy golf bag for a pair months now.

Dan Szymborski: Justinian brings it to me and Constantine will come and take it away from me

Dan Szymborski: And Cassiopeia will deliver me her hedgehog when she’s hungry

Dan Szymborski:

Danny Boy: How vindicated do you’re feeling with the diamondbacks scorching begin? ZIPS has been on this beat for a very long time. Is anybody extra set for regression than perdomo?

Dan Szymborski: I really feel fairly good as that was the one over/below I guess this yr!

Dan Szymborski: I used to be positively speaking lots about them this offseason

Dan Szymborski: and the factor is, they haven’t even gotten notably lucky with their younger pitching

Guest: how usually are the, I assume “priors” up to date for the ROS projections on the location (or no less than ZiPS)

Dan Szymborski: RoS projections are recalculated each morning. I’m undecided what time

Dan Szymborski: OH y eah, Perdomo’s going to come back down a bit

Dan Szymborski: But Gurriel in all probability will too in fact

Dan Szymborski: For a staff with such file, Arizona’s had a stunning quantity of issues go improper

Dan Szymborski: Really, it’s simply that their good gamers have been REALLY good

Guest: What form of strikes ought to the Giants make? Slightly little bit of each promoting and shopping for?

Dan Szymborski: It’s actually onerous to say as a result of proper now, there are *so* many extra consumers than sellers

Dan Szymborski: I imply, you understand the place the Giants are weak, nevertheless it’s onerous to essentially join the strains till you see extra groups fall into promote mode

Freddy Sez: Walk me off the Judge ledge. Anything there presumably with Jake Bauers? Doesn’t it appear a bit odd they opted for Mckinney over Florial? Or do they only not need to topic Florial to waivers, ~hoping~ that is extra a 2 week factor than 4?

Dan Szymborski: I’d have referred to as up Florial truthfully

Dan Szymborski: My tea-reading suggests they need to see extra plate self-discipline enchancment from him although

Dan Szymborski: But given how effectively he’s hit, you need to anticipate him to be aggressive

Dan Szymborski: I’ve Bauers-skeptical

Dan Szymborski: Though it’s good that he received the 99 turbo enhance in MLB the Show!

Guy Who Asks The Multiple Choice Question: How do you pronounce the phrase “Pecan”?

a) PEE-can
b) pe-CAN
c) PEE-con
d) pe-CON

Dan Szymborski: None of those

Dan Szymborski: I say puh-CON

Appa Yip Yip: Can you repair Alek Manoah?

Dan Szymborski: Me personally? No

Dan Szymborski: I wish to suppose I’m an excellent analyst, however I’m not a pitching coach

Dan Szymborski: If he desires assist enjoying Hearthstone or one thing I may assist him

B’ryce Szymbobski: What’s up with Sandy Alcantra? Is he gonna bounce again to kind?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be advantageous, however 2022 was not his baseline, which I maintain attempting to inform folks!

Dan Szymborski: I imply, his FIP is round the place it usually is

Dan Szymborski: Here’s what I wrote about him in March

Dan Szymborski: Alcantara continues to be prone to be one of many higher pitchers within the league, and ZiPS definitely likes him, putting him among the many leaders in WAR. But ZiPS is explicitly not attempting to consider rule modifications, and I believe Alcantara is likely one of the pitchers with probably the most important possibilities to be affected by them. That’s a typical theme amongst a number of of my bust picks this yr, just because this yr, it’s one thing that causes further uncertainty.
In this case, Alcantara, by far, had extra groundballs hit into shifts than any pitcher in baseball in 2022, with 166; solely seven different pitchers have been above 100. I nonetheless suppose he’ll be a very good pitcher, however I anticipate his platoon splits will rise farther than ZiPS does, and earlier than remaining assured he’s in ultra-elite territory, I need to guarantee that the changeups that lefties dealing with Alcantara drive into the bottom aren’t sneaking via at excessive charges.

Dan Szymborski: (within the pitcher busts piece)

Jeff: How significantly better of a prospect is Elly than Oneil Cruz was when he was initially referred to as up?

Dan Szymborski: I’d say *barely* higher?

Dan Szymborski: They’re each wonderful prospects at callup

That Hotel Room in Skydome Yes That One: Which AL East staff is constructed finest for the playoffs (as presently constructed)?

Dan Szymborski: Relative to their file, in all probability the Jays

Dan Szymborski: their expertise is kind of concentrated of their frontline gamers

Dan Szymborski: The Rays have the wonderful depth, the Yankees have all kinds of harm questions, the Orioles would nonetheless possible go into most playoff video games with the weaker beginning pitcher

JC: How does Kershaw get that a lot break on his curve with low spin?

Dan Szymborski: Ah, you in all probability need extra of a mechanics specialist for this!

Dan Szymborski: For his 12-6, I’m positive his arm slot and launch level have lots to do with it

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided if he’s nonetheless doing it this manner, however he no less than used to make use of his center finger on the *rim* of the seam fairly than on the seam squarely

James: So the Astros rotation presently feautres JP France, Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco and so they nonetheless lead the league in ERA. What is their secret?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t anticipate these guys to proceed beating their peripherals by a lot

Domingo: First it was “on a heater”. Now it’s “celly”. The folks DEMAND higher.

That Hotel Room in Skydome Yes That One: Which left for lifeless gamers do you (and ZiPS) suppose nonetheless has a variety of life in them?

Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless suppose there’s an opportunity Abreu turns it round!

Old for my Age: Jack Suwinski is on a 500-AB tempo for 34HR/18SB. Is he price rostering in a H2H league or are the low avg, o-fers, and days off an excessive amount of of a headache? Do you see him enhancing to the purpose of being a must-roster participant or will the Pirates transfer on from him pretty quickly?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’ll fall off *that* tempo a bit

Dan Szymborski: But the Pirates aren’t prone to transfer on

Dan Szymborski: I believe in most leagues, he’s a helpful second-tier expertise

Cito’s mustache: Really benefit from the chats.  Would you fairly guess on manufacturing from Correa, Perdomo, or Rosario ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Still Correa

Sharp: Marcell Ozuna can hit? Shocking {that a} participant with 1000’s of plate appearances logged of excellent efficiency would the entire sudden be hitter /s

Dan Szymborski: In equity, he was fairly terrible the final two years

Sandwich Enthusiast: Why are projections seemingly a lot greater on Rowdy Tellez than he’s proven? He appears totally replaceable this yr

Dan Szymborski: Hardly THAT a lot greater.

Dan Szymborski: 105 wRC+ vs. the 123 depth chart projection at first of the yr is an underperformance, however hardly a surprising one

Dan Szymborski: It’s not Bellinger a pair years in the past!

Dan Szymborski: and the depth chart’s all the way down to solely 9 factors of wRC+ over season to this point

Dan Szymborski: A 105 wRC+ was his thirtieth percentile projection in ZiPS at first of the season

Sandwich Enthusiast: Is Trea Turner again or was that simply the Tigers bump?

Dan Szymborski: Given his historical past and age, I believe he’ll be advantageous

Greg from Cincy: Imagine if the Reds would reconfig GABP to make the Outfield Coors sized and transfer Elly to CF…
I’d like to see him protecting huge quantities of floor and firing lasers to nab fools!

To my ?…
What’s an acceptable pattern to acknowledge reral change when loking at an in-season adjustment, such because the elevated stroll charges for EDLC and CES the previous month?

Dan Szymborski: It all the time is determined by the variety of PA *and* the magnitude

Dan Szymborski: Now, in the event you’re asking when in-season a change turns into *as* predictive because the projection

Dan Szymborski: for hitters, Ok/PA in 65 PA, 153 PA for HR, however 475 PA for singles per balls in play!

Snakey: How lengthy earlier than we are able to take into account the Dbacks a legit contender to the Dbacks?

Dan Szymborski: They’re positively professional contenders when enjoying themselves!

Vladdy: Where has my energy gone?

Dan Szymborski: Not anxious. Still hitting the ball within the air, nonetheless hitting the ball onerous

Dan Szymborski: You should see some Vlad on Hitters zStast tomorrow mornign

Who’s Fabio: Can I request a Boba Chette GIF viewing social gathering this week?  I believe final week you have been quick on time however Bo continues to be mashing the ball.

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided what I’m presupposed to do!

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: From earlier

Dan Szymborski:

cortezthakillah: Alejandro Kirk or Gary Sanchez ?

Dan Szymborski: Still Kirk!

Royals pit of despair: So which is worse: The A’s are shedding video games at an historic tempo, however are attempting to be dangerous. The Royals are additionally shedding video games at an historic tempo, however thought they’d be higher this yr. At least one staff is seeing issues go in line with plan.

Dan Szymborski: See, in the event you’re going to be terrible, be AMAZING at it. The A’s are

Dan Szymborski: The A’s may lose 120 video games

Dan Szymborski: Nobody’s going to recollect most of those Royals

Dan Szymborski: And it’s too dangerous that Quatraro might be the sacrificial lamb that will get blamed by the org

SJ: The Rangers successfully acquired Heim, Garcia, and Lowe for 2 45ish prospects, Elvis Andrus, and money concerns. Seems like a reasonably whole lot.

Al Bundy: What staff has been the worst underperformer relative to their ZiPS projected file, traditionally?  Are the 2023 Cardinals susceptible to taking that crown?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, 2021 Giants

Dan Szymborski: oih wait

Dan Szymborski: different method round

Dan Szymborski: dangle on

Big Jeff Pfeffer: People in Kansas City are so stockholm-syndromed to dangerous old fashioned managers that some are saying they’d fairly have Matheny than Quatrato

Dan Szymborski: 2018 Orioles at -30, 2017 Giants at -24, 2005 Dodgers at -23, after which 5 groups at -21: 2019 Tigers, 2014 Rangers, 2012 Rockies, 2009 Mets, 2008 Padres

Well-Beered Englishman: Thanks all for the Baltimore suggestions! We went to Faidley’s for crab desserts straight off the airplane, hit up Attman’s Deli and the Mount Royal Tavern, and whacked a bunch of crabs with mallets. Didn’t get to strive a Chaps pit beef so I’m planning to return. Cool metropolis. Wish the O’s had been on the town.

Dan Szymborski: Glad you had enjoyable

Dan Szymborski: JFC you guys have requested a variety of questions

Dan Szymborski: This goes to be one in all my worst chats for reply charge

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to need to cease answering ones that I’ve to examine knowledge on!

Jerry: As an Astros fan how involved ought to I be that the Rangers are on the tempo they’re on?  Is it sustainable?  Should we be wanting on the Wild Card race already?

Dan Szymborski: Should be involved. We’re going to be on the midway level in a pair weeks

No identify: What do you consider the response function in chat? I really feel prefer it negatively impacts the cellular expertise

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I all the time depart it on as a result of I like to present you guys as a lot freedom as potential

Steve O: How actual is Jake Bauers? He’s received the most effective batted ball knowledge of his profession, however the pattern continues to be fairly small. The Yankees are going to wish somebody to step up whereas Judge is out.

Dan Szymborski: Still skeptical

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Dan, you bought to maneuver. It can’t be in the identical state the place you reside now, any state the place you lived beforehand, or any bordering state of the place you reside now or have lived.  Where do you progress?

Dan Szymborski: New Hampshire

Dan Szymborski: or Colorado

Chickie: Is that trio OF in Miami of Soler, DLC and Sweet Jesus remotely harking back to the previous of Stanton, Ozuna and Yelich?

Dan Szymborski: Soler form of odd man out long run

Dan Szymborski:

JK: Can you assist me perceive ninetieth percentile EV a bit higher and its significance?

Dan Szymborski: It’s like max EV however ninetieth percentile means you’re eliminating some outliers

Ugh: Are the Cubs actually this dangerous? Spending $300m to be simply as dangerous as final yr? And even “prospect” followers and cubs media inform me might be a man isn’t even bench worthy. The org looks like its in disarray. Total dumpster hearth.

Dan Szymborski: They’re a 50ish staff enjoying poorly now after enjoying very effectively in April

Jason: Has this season affected your outlook on Corbin Carroll?

Dan Szymborski: No, I already thought he was usually

brooklyngail: My 14-year-old cat usually walks via the home carrying a sock in her mouth and meowing loudly. What does it imply?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t essentially imply something

Dan Szymborski: but when it’s a change in habits, that’s purpose for checkup

TooDamnTall: Have badly have humidors tousled park components, on a scale of 1 to blueberries.

Dan Szymborski: bessemer course of

FroYo: I’m on a piece name that’s completely distracting me out of your chat…God assist me!

Ugh: Why are FOs nonetheless dangerous when there are analysts utilizing publicly out there knowledge that would let you know why what a FO is doing will not be a good suggestion?

Dan Szymborski: Decision-making is complicated and getting knowledge from a pc display screen to a plan of motion isn’t all the time simple

D: Thoughts on the Hearthstone meta now that there’s been a bit time because the mini-set?

Dan Szymborski: haven’t performed a lot constructed

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: agree it’s “puh-CON” besides it’s all the time “PEE-can” pie

Daniel L: Do you blame AJ Preller for the failure of the Padres? This isn’t the primary time he’s constructed a roster that has carried out effectively beneath expectations? Or is it on the gamers?

Dan Szymborski: The factor was, the primary return in 2017/2018 vary shouldn’t have labored

Dan Szymborski: however this one works

Dan Szymborski: it’s onerous responsible him on this case for the gamers which have sucked

Dan Szymborski: Which additionally makes it actually frigging onerous to repair

Chip: I’m taking a look at ZIPS 24 and 25 projections on KeBrayan Hayes and so they’re…underwhelming. Why do you suppose a man who purportedly has a 60 hit instrument is such a nasty hitter?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has all the time been skeptical about his offense

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Dan, are you able to simulate a photograph of a dugout-clearing brawl however with everybody operating onto the sphere in tutus and with feathers?

Appa Yip Yip: Is Kevin Gausman the most effective FA pitcher signing in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Looking prefer it

Joe Fan: Why do you hate my staff?

Dan Szymborski: My job is to crush pleasure

Kyle: A baseball-sized radioactive meteor is headed to earth and can finish civilization if it hits the bottom in a single piece however is innocent if it’s damaged up earlier than impression. The meteor is 475 ft from residence plate and hovering proper off the bottom. Which three hitters would you choose to hit a baseball to it?

Dan Szymborski: Judge, Soto, Alvarez

Appa Yip Yip: Why is the sandwich fanatic being imply to rowdy he’s only a massive fluffy boy who deserves the world

Eric: Do you suppose Encarnacion Strand is price stashing even when he can’t be moved to minors slot and thus my staff can be lacking at bats?

Dan Szymborski: Not a bench?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’ll be up quickly

Dan Szymborski: in the event you’re behind int eh standings by lots, I would take the danger due to the upside

Appa Yip Yip: The Jays can clearly afford each however in the event you had to decide on to lock up Vlad or Bo long run which might you choose?

Dan Szymborski: Boba Chette

Guest: “Corbin Carroll is often” – Dan Symborski

Dan Szymborski: For some purpose, I typed superior as usually

Dan Szymborski: This form of factor has elevated within the final 5 or 6 years as I age

Guest: After roughly what number of PAs do charge states like Chase%, Contact%, and many others. are likely to stabilize?

Dan Szymborski: Fewer!

Dan Szymborski: Under 100

Chip: Real males pronounce it ‘PUH-con’

Meow sock query: I didn’t see the phrase “cat” within the sock meow query and thought any person’s 14-year previous child was doing that. Definitely would have been a purpose for a examine up

Guest: Have to drop one in all Freddy Peralta, Bibee, Paxton or Mitch Keller.  Who can be your alternative?

Dan Szymborski: Paxton, although I believe you possibly can commerce him

Dan Szymborski: Let another person want him to remain wholesome!

FroYo: Are you going to do one other article about ZIPs breakouts from the Future’s Game once more this yr?!?  Was actually useful final.  Thank you!

Dan Szymborski: I normally do, so I in all probability will once more!

Guest: If you have been a betting man, do you suppose Jacob deGrom comes again as an excellent pitcher after TJ surgical procedure? I do know the unknowns are big.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit squeamish for a TJ redux

Guest: are gamers with much less expertise extra prone to attain twentieth or eightieth percentile projected efficiency, or is the vary merely wider?

Dan Szymborski: Remember, twentieth/eightieth percentiles are already the recognition!

Dan Szymborski: errr

Dan Szymborski: chance

Dan Szymborski: see what I imply? Szym approaching 45 substitutes far more improper phrases than Szym approaching 25

Dan Szymborski: Which actually annoys me.

CFH: Dan, do you suppose Ohtani may play the sphere and simply make his throws left handed? That appears easier to study than different issues he does efficiently

Dan Szymborski: That can be amusing

Steve O: Astros secret: Having one faux staff of their division + Mariners/Angels.

Speaking of socks: Is it dangerous {that a} maintain having a dream the place my Vlad Guerrero themed socks maintain coming to life and Vlad softly nibbles on my ankle?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: On that notice, it’s time for me to depart for an additional week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!