Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/11/23

Jay Jaffe: Hey of us, welcome to my weekly chat. We had a little bit of a glitch on our finish in publishing this so I’m going to offer it a couple of minutes for the queue to fill. In the meantime, right here’s my piece on Adam Duvall’s wrist damage, which has interrupted one of many majors’ hottest begins https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-lose-red-hot-adam-duvall-to-a-brok…

The man who asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: A turkey reuben and potato salad from Mile End Deli. Yes, i’d like to have their corned beef reuben or the smoked meat sandwich, however I gotta preserve the purple meat underneath management and that is nonetheless a ninety fifth percentile sandwich

Theo Epstein Truther: Seeing that the Cardinals is likely to be the worst workforce in baseball this yr makes my coronary heart so completely happy. Is their offense as unhealthy as their rotation?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume anyone believes the Cardinals would be the worst workforce in baseball this yr; even within the NL 4 groups have worse run differentials than their -9. That mentioned, Marmol’s dealing with of the Tyler O’Neill baserunning factor was a purple flag that made me surprise if he wanted a bitter hardass present of authoritah as a result of he’s dropping the clubhouse. That was completely horseshit. We’ll see if it matches a sample.

Mike M: How many PAs do you see James Outman getting by the top of the season for LAD?  And is he a sneaky all-star candidate?

Jay Jaffe: if he stays wholesome, at this level I don’t see how he doesn’t get no less than 500 PA. the early success is spectacular and the Dodgers don’t have sufficient of a margin to sit down productive gamers even when they don’t match neatly into platoons.

Skip: I’ve a good friend going via some severe medical points; are you able to suggest a light-hearted or emotionally optimistic baseball ebook I can deliver him?

Jay Jaffe: A newer one and near residence, The Only Rule is It Has to Work by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller, about their operating a low-level indy workforce, was enjoyable

Bobby Cox: Is Orlando Arcia truly common to above common now? After all these poor to middling years?

Urban Shocker’s Jockstrap: Predict ATL’s high 5 starters by inning pitched on the finish of the yr given latest accidents, debuts, and previous damage histories! Go! (additionally please and thanks)

Jay Jaffe: Maddux, Glavine, Fried, Niekro…. wait wait wait

Jay Jaffe: I’d go Morton, Strider, Fried, Dodd, and Soroka however wow does that image preserve shifting.

Inaccessible Rail: The Mets have a number of gamers who will certainly be out no less than 60 days, however they solely have two gamers on the 60 Day IL. I discover that each one groups do that yearly. Is there some profit I’m not understanding to preserving gamers off the 60 Day IL?

Jay Jaffe: Something I discovered solely this yr is which you can’t transfer a man onto the 60-day IL until that you must add anyone to the 40-man roster. Of course, there could also be different causes to not transfer a man on there, such because the hope that he’ll be again inside 60, however that is the Mets we’re speaking about so possibly that doesn’t apply

Mike M: This is the yr for the Angels, proper?  RIGHT!?

Ross: I heard spin price is down….

TomBruno23: So, the Cardinals’ beginning pitching…

Jay Jaffe: It’s not nice — we had them twentieth in our Preseason Positional Power Rankings — but it surely’s not as unhealthy because it’s seemed up to now; be aware that Miles Mikolas’ ERA begins with a 9 and his FIP with a 1 (and never a ten). Three of their 5 guys (counting Jake Woodward, Wainwright’s fill-in) have no less than a strikeout per inning.

Rick: On a scale from 1 to panic, how worrying is the newest Rodon setback (again soreness)?

Jay Jaffe: 2-3. if it’s actually simply tightness in his again and never one thing worse it most likely impacts him by at most one other week, and that may be clawed again by bringing him up from rehab for a 75-80 pitch begin as an alternative of a 90ish one

Summerland: My reco for a enjoyable baseball ebook. It’s a fantasy novel that revolves round baseball

Jay Jaffe: For the individual above in search of a baseball ebook for his or her good friend. Haven’t learn this one myself

Strosfan: Is there anybody you’d commerce Yordan Alvarez for one-for-one contemplating present contractual/free agent standing? Maybe Julio R? Enormous surplus worth, contemplating the deal he signed final yr.

Jay Jaffe: Wander Franco involves thoughts. Probably Adley Rutschman too

Inaccessible Rail: I’m somewhat confused about Noah Song’s standing. I see he’s nonetheless listed as a Phillie, however doesn’t he need to be returned to the BoSox?

Jay Jaffe: No, a Rule 5 choose can go on the IL with out being supplied again to his authentic workforce. That’s the place Song is correct now, throwing bullpens as he works his means again from a again drawback (“tightness”). He can do a rehab task however as soon as that expires he must be on the 26-man roster; he can’t be optioned.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: As Dan Szymborski has identified, now that the video games are means shorter, can we eliminate the zombie runner? (I do know it’s not gonna occur)

Jay Jaffe: Sigh. No, it’s not going to occur.

Insert Witty Name Here: Kelenic has a excessive Ok price however is hitting the ball arduous. Still optimistic?

Jay Jaffe: Reasonably. .300/.344/.500 up to now. Just one barrel (5%) however a 60% hard-hit price and .524 xSLG. I *assume* he’s on his means

Inaccessible Rail: Kodai Senga for ROY?

Jay Jaffe: I picked Corbin Carroll and have a tendency to lean in the direction of the true rookies relatively than the international league imports. I don’t assume Senga’s a nasty choose although

Inaccessible Rail: I used to be shocked that the Padres let Seth Lugo throw 109 pitches in his final outing. But then I remembered that he’ll get additional relaxation due to the six-man rotation. Is there any proof that longer outings with extra relaxation between is healthier for arms than shorter outings with much less relaxation?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know that anyone’s acquired proof on the managed experiment stage however that’s true for a couple of thousand various things that occur in baseball, as a result of gamers aren’t lab rats and there’s solely a lot one can management for. The six-man rotation is an try to offer pitchers extra relaxation between begins however I don’t assume we’ve seen groups attempt to push more durable to get extra out of these begins by way of pitch counts, innings, or batters confronted per begin

Inaccessible Rail: If the Mets are going to have Alvarez on the energetic roster, are you able to clarify to me why he isn’t beginning most video games? Is Tomas Nido batting .150 even?

Jay Jaffe: I can’t say I’ve a fantastic understanding of how the Mets are dealing with Alvarez within the grand scheme however he began Sunday paired with Carlos Carrasco, after which on Monday Nido caught Max Scherzer — that may simply have been the rotation’s ace getting his alternative of catchers. Let’s see how this performs out over greater than two days

slew(Seattle): Not positive in the event you had been a Mad journal man as a child, however your namesake Al Jaffe handed away at age 102. RIP

Jay Jaffe: oh sure I’m effectively conscious of it, tweeted about it a number of occasions yesterday and wrote this on Facebook:

RIP to my not-quite-namesake. My classmates at all times requested if we had been associated, and whereas I used to be initially exasperated, I later got here to understand what a mensch he was. I’ll do my greatest to uphold his legacy by offering snappy solutions to silly questions.  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/10/arts/al-jaffee-dead.html

Guest: Are the Stuff+ numbers correct for Matt Bush’s slider and Cutter. His cutter is -30 and his slider is 33. That appear off to me.

Jay Jaffe: That -33 is for his sinker, not his slider, and he’s thrown like 9 of them. Might be a glitch however on Statcast these sinkers are 35% beneath common by way of vertical drop so possibly he’s simply… not throwing good ones? engaged on one thing else? I don’t know. Worth asking Eno Sarris about.

Inaccessible Rail: I noticed within the chat yesterday that Ben Clemens is pro-Zombie. Is this confined to baseball, or will he be on the opposite facet when the zombie apocalypse arrives?

Jay Jaffe: I hope not; we will’t afford to lose a wise man like Ben to the opposite facet.

Eric: Aroldis (no matter him as an individual) appears to be like like a steal of a signing for the Royals. What sort of commerce bait will he be this summer season if he even continues at an above avg tempo? I really feel just like the RP market went loopy just a few years in the past however has calmed down considerably.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume he’s gonna generate multiple or two lottery tickets. Teams have seen how he’s fallen aside lately and the way he carried out himself with the Yankees final yr and whereas anyone will commerce for him, no person goes to place themselves ready the place they could look silly if he burns them.

Zach: RE: Outman
How legit do you assume that is? Obviously he’s not going to maintain up his Babe Ruth slashline, however his peripherals look fairly rattling good up to now. Lots of purple on that savant web page.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume he’s gonna slug .800. In my piece on the Dodgers’ shocking outfield final week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dodgers-new-look-outfield-has-been-a-h…), Dan Szymborski provided me with ZiPS percentile projections for Outman (and Heyward and Thompson). His eightieth percentile projection is .252/.329/.487 (120 OPS+) and three.5 WAR. Maybe that’s a bit extra prone to occur than we thought, however i’d nonetheless be shocked if he blows via that line.

Guest: Thoughts on the DBacks sizzling begin? It’s early however younger gamers like Alek Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo appear to have figured one thing out on the plate over the offseason. Obviously there are holes on the roster however do you see a situation the place they sneak into the WC?

Jay Jaffe: My predominant considered them is that they need to transfer on from Bumgarner with considered one of their younger arms in his rotation spot. Right now we’ve them ninth within the NL by way of total playoff odds at 20.9%, half of the Eighth-running workforce, the Giants. So realistically they want three groups above them to falter in an enormous means, and one most likely must be both the Dodgers or Giants. It’s going to take quite a lot of breakouts and collapses to get there

Inaccessible Rail: Are steals and accidents correlated? Will we see extra accidents this yr as a result of SBs are up?

Jay Jaffe: There’s added danger in steals — limbs getting damage sliding, possibly just a few hammys and calf strains.

Baseball Fan: If Degrom wins the Cy this yr, is he assured within the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I’d like his odds much more if he had 3 Cys than 2 — Clemens is the one eligible 3-timer outdoors the Hall — however I believe the dearth of bulk on his resumé is a legal responsibility till he no less than will get to 150 wins and 60 WAR.

Jeff: how bullish are you on McCormick vs. Meyers for CF job?

Jay Jaffe: I actually don’t see why it’s a query as McCormick has clearly outplayed Meyers because the begin of final season.

Volpe: How lengthy do the Yankees let him flail round on the market?

Jay Jaffe: I believe they’ll give him till the top of the month. Donaldson being injured and Peraza (hamstring) too limits their flexibility. in the event that they sed him down now it appears to be like like a panic transfer and turns into A Thing for the child.

Byron Denniston: Wow, it’s going to be a looooong season in Oakland. Are they the worst workforce in years?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume they’re worse than the 2019 Tigers, who misplaced 114 video games with a company that at occasions felt prefer it was 20 years behind the occasions.

Sanford: Whose HOF case would profit essentially the most from profitable an MVP this yr, à la Goldschmidt in ’22? Mostly pondering of veterans right here and never early-career/arb guys who’ve a lot left to put in writing (e.g. Julio). Another win for Trout wouldn’t do a lot for his case besides deliver him even additional into the internal circle, however I really feel like José Ramírez or Lindor lastly breaking via and profitable one would place them effectively. (Despite ending as runner-ups final yr, looks like Machado and Arenado are on their means regardless.)

Jay Jaffe: I believe the 4 guys you all title (Ramirez, Lindor, Machado, Arenado) are on their means however an MVP would definitely assist. Trea Turner, who’s a few paces behind by way of age and WAR, can be particularly helped by profitable.

Isolated Thinker: Going from 19 video games vs a division rival all the way down to 13 appears a bit excessive, no?  You’re preventing for a division title, but solely 52/162 video games are actually interdivision.  Is this nonsense right here to remain or only a one yr experiment?

Jay Jaffe: it’s right here to remain all through the brand new CBA and I don’t find it irresistible, however I appear to be within the minority

Zack Attack: Given his Ok-rate and normal rotation filler standing (and HoF worthy profession if he retired at this time), does Greinke stick round one other yr to chase 3,000 Ok’s? Doesn’t actually seem to be the kind of man who places inventory in milestones like that, however alternatively, I gained’t be the one to attempt to predict that man’s habits…

Jay Jaffe: Greinke is so inscrutable. I don’t assume that he cares in regards to the quantity in any respect, or no less than gained’t admit to caring. He has 2,893 Ok proper now, and if he may proceed his present tempo (6.1 per 9) he would wish one other ~161 innings to get there. Which may occur this yr if he stays very wholesome.

Byron Denniston: Swanson Ok price <20% via 40 PAs. What does it *imply?*

Jay Jaffe: it’s fascinating and value maintaining a tally of. Strikeout price stabilizes round 60 PA. his swinging strike price is down as effectively, in order that’s normally an indication {that a} Ok% price is actual (pitches is a bigger information set than plate appearances). Not as drastic as Adam Duvall however one thing to verify again on in every week or so

Jay Jaffe: BtW we’re having some web site points

Jay Jaffe:

Ben: Regarding whose HoF case can be helped by an MVP, I do know none of those are lifelike, but when Longoria, Donaldson, or McCutchen one way or the other revived their careers with an MVP season, wouldn’t they robotically bounce from Hall of Very Good to Hall of Fame candidates?

Jay Jaffe: Donaldson and McCutchen have gained earlier than however even some two-time winners are on the surface comparable to Juan Gonzalez (OK, he’s acquired PEDs in his resumé), Roger Maris, and Dale Murphy, and I don’t see the place both would have a greater case than the Murph — actually not Donaldson if we’re counting character.

Jake S: Hey Jay. If you may be a fly on the wall for a truth-serum induced dialog between any two baseball folks, who wouldn’t it be? Could be player-to-player, execs, and many others. High on my record can be Tony Clark and Manfred.

Jay Jaffe: OK of us, the location is having points and my time is nearly up anyway, so I’ll deliver the curtain down right here. thanks a lot for stopping by at this time