Reversing Course (Once more) On Jesús Luzardo

If the Marlins are going to leap into playoff rivalry anytime quickly, it is going to be on the again of their younger pitchers. Of these, they’ve assembled many, with assorted outcomes. Sandy Alcantara simply received the Cy Young. Trevor Rogers seemed like a future Cy Young winner for a little bit bit, although not a lot anymore. Max Meyer received harm however needs to be again quickly sufficient. Sixto Sánchez received harm and won’t be the again ever. The Marlins even declared a surplus on this space, buying and selling Pablo López (and Zac Gallen, if you wish to broaden your time horizons a little bit) for place gamers. Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and a partridge in a pear tree.

But Miami’s most promising younger starter in the mean time, aside from Alcantara, is Jesús Luzardo. He faces the Phillies on Tuesday night time having allowed only one earned run in 12 2/3 innings over his first two begins of the season.

Luzardo is a pitcher I’ve had my eye on for a very long time, however he’s been out of the highlight so lengthy it’s value recounting his backstory. Born in Peru and raised in Florida, Luzardo was a third-round decide of the Nationals out of highschool in 2016. He was a bit undersized at 6-foot, however he was very polished for a highschool pitcher and rocketed up draft lists when he underwent the identical sort of metamorphosis that made Shane Bieber, Jacob deGrom, and Corbin Burnes into Cy Young winners: Already having plus command, he developed a plus fastball within the execs. Even now, left-handed starters who can throw within the higher 90s are uncommon. Left-handed starters with a number of above-average-to-plus secondaries and a very good sense of the right way to pitch… these come alongside only a few instances a decade.

For a time, it seemed like Luzardo would possibly break camp with the A’s at 21 and instantly turn into the very best beginning pitcher on a contender, so nice was his expertise at such a younger age. I used to be all-in on him as a future Cy Young winner, however simply earlier than the beginning of the 2019 season, he suffered a strained rotator cuff. That began the standard up-and-down emotional journey that you understand if you happen to’ve ever gotten connected to a pitching prospect: Injuries, intermittent effectiveness, inexplicable pitfalls. Here, I made a chart:

But after a promising half-season in 2022, Luzardo is pitching like a bona fide ace, a minimum of for the primary two weeks of the season. And his tiny ERA isn’t just the results of good batted ball luck or something; he’s hanging out 31.3% of batters, holding opponents to an xwOBA of simply .234.

After so many ups and downs, is Luzardo’s potential nonetheless in there? He’s been round so lengthy that he pitched for an Oakland staff that received 97 video games; absolutely anybody that previous have to be pushing 30 by now. But no, he’s nonetheless solely 25. He was in the identical highschool draft class as Nick Lodolo, who simply made his MLB debut final yr.

Even with the instruments now we have, a two-start pattern barely constitutes proof. Plus, I’ve had the soccer pulled away on the final second so many instances with younger Marlins pitchers — not simply Luzardo, however I used to be an enormous fan of Meyer, Rogers, and Sanchez after they had been developing — that it’s going to take loads to persuade me that is going to final. But rattling, he appears good to date.

So I assumed it will be enjoyable to return to the pitcher Luzardo was once I considered him as a future Cy Young contender and evaluate that to the man who mowed down the Mets and Twins over the primary week of the season. The FanGraphs Top 100 prospect report on Luzardo from 2019, written by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel, was constructive however a little bit extra conservative than my much less refined view, rating him twenty seventh and giving him a Future Value of 55. Obviously Luzardo has been by means of loads previously 4 years, however I needed to return to Eric and Kiley’s report and see simply how a lot has modified.

Here’s the related passage:

Those artful pitchability traits from highschool are nonetheless extant. Luzardo will range the form of his breaking ball — he can throw it for strikes to get forward of hitters, he can again foot it to righties — and he makes use of his changeup towards lefties and righties. His supply is a bit violent but it surely doesn’t inhibit his command, and Luzardo’s musculature appears higher capable of take care of the trouble than it was when he was in highschool. His fastball might not play like a mid-90s heater as a result of he’s undersized and a short-strider, however he locates it properly sufficient to keep away from getting harm.

Let’s undergo these traits one after the other. First, Luzardo’s breaking ball. He does range its form and velocity fairly a bit, starting from 82.6 mph to 88.7. This isn’t a Brent Honeywell Jr.-type changeup/screwball confusion between two distinct pitches; the histogram of Luzardo’s slider velocity isn’t an ideal bell curve, but it surely’s shut. The imply and median velocities are inside 0.1 mph of each other

Still, you’ll see a sluggish slider with a little bit extra loop, seen back-doored right here to Willi Castro for a referred to as strike:

As properly as a tougher, flatter slider, seen right here producing a checked swing from Tomás Nido, who seemingly thought it was going to be a fastball low within the zone:

Last season, Luzardo threw each his slider and his changeup kind of equally to both-handed batters. But this season, that’s modified. It’s solely been two begins, and he’s solely thrown 39 pitches to lefties whole, however not a single one among them has been a changeup to date. That might change, however lefties teed off towards Luzardo’s change final yr (.308/.338/.538, .440 xwOBA) so possibly it’s not a foul thought to provide it a relaxation.

The second half of the scouting report stays spot-on. Luzardo’s supply is a blur of limbs; to not jinx issues, however seeing that a lot exercise from a pitcher his dimension all the time brings my thoughts again to Carson Fulmer. Like Fulmer, Luzardo exemplifies the distinction between being brief and being small. Built like a rugby fullback, he nonetheless doesn’t get a lot extension; due to his stature and supply, he’s within the third percentile amongst MLB pitchers this yr, ruining an in any other case blood-red set of patriotic lollipops.

But one thing else has modified: He’s throwing tougher than ever.

Both of Luzardo’s fastballs (four-seamer and sinker) are up a mile an hour over what he was throwing in 2022, when he — it bears repeating — was actually good. His four-seamer is up virtually two miles per hour over 2020. (In 2019, he operated completely out of the bullpen.) As of this writing, he has the second-hardest four-seamer of any left-handed starter, behind solely Shane McClanahan, and even then solely by 0.1 mph. The implications of such a velo soar are apparent: Where he was as soon as working within the mid-90s, Luzardo can now tickle 99, creating a niche of some 17 mph between his hardest fastball and slowest slider.

Luzardo is about to face a Phillies lineup that scored 9 runs on Alcantara as I used to be writing this text, so the competitors is just not about to get any simpler. If this can be a two-start mirage or if he will get harm once more, it was enjoyable whereas it lasted. But if he can rekindle the previous magic, after which some, he’ll be probably the greatest pitchers in baseball.