4 Hitters Who Ought to Have Your Early-Season Consideration

After simply two weeks of play, there are a number of hitters off to scorching sizzling begins. Some are anticipated; for instance, Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman, and Mike Trout all have xwOBAs over .460 to this point. Given their huge historical past of offensive prowess, it’s not stunning to see them put collectively a stretch like this. But for those who look close to the highest of the xwOBA leaderboard, you would possibly do a double take while you see a number of the names apart these aforementioned stars. Without bigger batted ball samples, we could not be capable to draw any concrete conclusions concerning the sudden gamers, however there are some sticky traits which can be value being attentive to because the season develops.

For this train, I’m going to focus on 4 gamers which have caught my eye this season and who I’ll be watching over the subsequent few months to see if they’ll sustain their early efficiency. The standards for choosing these gamers had been comparatively unfastened: It may very well be an under-the-radar bat that has impressed me, or a veteran who has reached a brand new peak as a consequence of an attention-grabbing adjustment. With that stated, let’s leap into it.

Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman has by no means hit the ball this tough. Period. He’s barreled 12 of his first 34 batted balls; to place that into perspective, final yr he had 48 barrels in 373 batted balls. This shouldn’t be sustainable — not even Aaron Judge’s 62 dwelling run season had a Barrel price above 30%. But you’ll be able to’t pretend getting this sizzling, and when you think about that Chapman has adopted a toe faucet strategy in his swing in hopes to return to his earlier offensive from his early days in Oakland, there’s extra motive to purchase into this stretch.

I’m going to point out you two swings that spotlight the toe faucet versus final yr’s leg kick. The first is from late final yr, and the second is from final week towards Amir Garrett.

The distinction in Chapman’s connection to the bottom is drastic. Last yr, he hit full entrance knee extension and instantly flew off the bottom as he over-rotated to the pull facet (watch his lead foot come disconnected). This yr, his toe faucet is permitting his stride to remain closed by means of foot strike and his toes to remain linked to the bottom even after full knee extension, suggesting an enchancment in rotational course. If that is what a toe faucet does for him, then I’m enthusiastic about his potential going ahead.

Adley Rutschman (the righty model)

Adley Rutschman was a five-win participant in his debut yr in solely 113 video games, however he by some means nonetheless has room to develop. When I watched him final yr, he regarded rushed and overmatched on the right-hand facet; in 115 plate appearances towards lefties in 2022, he had a 64 wRC+. That isn’t good, and there’s no query he regarded to enhance upon it within the offseason. The distinction in fluidity from final yr to this yr is stark. The following two clips are from final September and earlier this week, in that order:

He opened his stance a bit relative to final yr, which has allowed him to make use of his hips extra. Against Framber Valdez, his rotation was rushed, and his hips ceased to maneuver. He had nothing to load into. In principle, a hitter hundreds into their hips and might grasp there and wait to unload till they make their swing choice. If they by no means create that motion, then it may be troublesome to regulate to completely different speeds. By opening his stance just a few extra inches, Rutschman has created area to cue his hips to rotate. The early returns have been there to this point, with a .487 xwOBACON (13 batted balls) in comparison with final yr’s .294 mark (73 batted balls), however we’ll see if this continues to pattern in the precise course.

David Villar

I’ve been asking myself this query for the reason that finish of final yr: does David Villar flat-out rake? As an older prospect who performed in a hitter-friendly minor league atmosphere, you’ll be able to fly underneath the radar till you show it in MLB. Villar appears to be heading in the right direction to show his Triple-A and Double-A performances in 2021 and ’22 had been no fluke.

The torso bend in his swing that outcomes from his load places his bat path on a great airplane for pull-side energy. It may additionally be the explanation for his whiff-heavy profile, but when he can proceed to sq. up the ball on a constant foundation when he does make contact, he might be able to get away with a excessive swing-and-miss price. Check out these two swings from this yr that had been each 100-plus-mph rockets off the bat:

The first is an outstanding 0–2 swing on a 102-mph Aroldis Chapman fastball on the very prime of the zone. It resulted in an out, however from a course of perspective, it’s a win. The second swing got here in a bonus rely on a middle-middle fastball with the bases loaded. This is what good hitters do: When offered with a possibility to wreck a mistake within the coronary heart of the plate, you place the barrel on the ball and let your bat do the work.

So far, Villar’s 21.7% barrel price has resulted in a .507 xwOBACON, and he’s crushing errors off right-handed pitchers. I initially thought he can be a platoon hitter who performs largely towards lefties, however the Giants have given him the full-time job, and he hasn’t upset. ZiPS tasks him for a 115 wRC+ over 490 plate appearances, and I’m feeling fairly bullish on that.

Nolan Gorman

To be frank, all the Cardinals’ lineup excites me. Up and down, they’ve hitters who’re both already studs, or younger guys like Nolan Gorman who look primed for a unbelievable season. After his preliminary rush of dwelling run success final yr, he struggled mightily and was despatched again all the way down to the minors, the place he in the end completed the season. He took that to coronary heart and has come again in 2023 trying like a very completely different hitter. It’s instantly noticeable while you evaluate his mechanics from final yr (first clip) to his swings from this yr (second clip):

Gorman’s violent head thwack is totally gone! His steep shoulder airplane and sideways head instructed he can be extremely prone to fastballs on the prime of the zone, and pitchers caught onto that in ’22. Strictly centered on mechanics, they weren’t sustainable actions. With a flatter entry into the zone ensuing from a extra impartial shoulder airplane, Gorman has put himself able to sq. up upper-third fastballs. Like the opposite hitters mentioned to this point, that has resulted in improved batted ball numbers, equivalent to a .554 xwOBACON. But what’s much more spectacular is his 14.9% chase price. Overall, he’s swinging 10.1 share factors much less steadily than final yr, however when he does swing, his course of is as sound as may be.

I genuinely get pleasure from this time of yr; the thought of the unknown is thrilling to me. As we patiently look ahead to extra information to roll in over the subsequent few months, I’ll proceed to seek for attention-grabbing mechanical changes that present perception on prime of the creating information. For now, these are the hitters on my thoughts who I’m going again to re-watch the next day.