Ke’Bryan Hayes Is Nearly Elevating

If we’ve written it as soon as, we’ve written it a hundred instances: Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is a strong participant, but when he may simply work out learn how to hit the ball within the air, he’d be a star. Well, right here we’re in June 2023, and it seems that Hayes has lastly began elevating the ball some.

For the second season in a row, Hayes has knocked not less than 5 share factors off his groundball charge, elevated his hard-hit charge and common exit velocity, and greater than doubled his launch angle. And for the second season in a row, his general efficiency on the plate has stayed nearly precisely the identical. Let me say this very clearly: We had been fallacious. We are so sorry. We will work to do higher sooner or later. Let’s check out what precisely Hayes has been doing to make liars out of us.

Before we dive into the batted ball profile, Hayes’ plate self-discipline has been trending within the fallacious course. He’s making extra contact, however he’s chasing extra and swinging at fewer pitches within the zone. While he may stand to be extra aggressive on the plate, that’s not the way in which to go about it. As a consequence, he’s minimize about three factors off each his stroll charge and his strikeout charge. That’s not precisely a wash. Last yr, when Hayes didn’t put the ball in play, his wOBA was .209. This yr, it’s .154. In quick, it’s extra vital than ever he produces when he makes contact.

His balls in play have been extra productive, however not by very a lot. His wOBA on contact is up 12 factors, and his xwOBA on contact is up 29 factors. Maybe he’s been a bit unfortunate, however we’re speaking a few participant who, not less than in idea, simply sewed up the best gap in his recreation, and did so whereas hitting the ball tougher than ever. Why isn’t he off to the races? Because that gap has not, the truth is, been sewn up.

We’re not the liars; Hayes’ launch angle is the liar. While the truth that a participant’s launch angle doesn’t inform the entire story is not essentially a shock, Hayes’ launch angle is a very crafty fabulist.

In almost each quadrant of the zone and towards almost each pitch sort, Hayes has elevated his launch angle dramatically. Although it’d seem that Hayes is just following M.O.P.’s timeless recommendation, that’s removed from the entire story. Take a have a look at his 10 hardest-hit balls of the season thus far.

There isn’t a fly ball within the bunch. Only certainly one of these balls had a launch angle above 3° or traveled greater than 89 ft within the air. Most of them had a damaging launch angle. I may preserve going with the enjoyable information: Only three made it previous the pitcher’s mound on the fly. Only three of those balls that he completely demolished made it to the outfield in any respect!

Last yr, Hayes’ floor ball charge was the seventeenth highest in baseball. This yr it’s the 61st. That’s a giant enchancment, however when Hayes actually squares the ball up, he’s nonetheless very a lot hitting it on the bottom. Here’s one other means to take a look at issues:

Hayes is hitting fewer groundballs, however that’s solely driving half of the rise in his launch angle. The different half is coming from the truth that he’s not beating these grounders straight down into the earth the way in which he used to. As a consequence, his efficiency on grounders has improved significantly. Unfortunately, his fly balls have carried out worse than they did final yr.

There’s a easy rationalization for that: Hayes tends to hit his fly balls and line drives to heart area, and air balls do the least injury within the massive a part of the ballpark. As a consequence, his wOBA tends to underperform his xwOBA dramatically. This yr, 41% of Hayes’ air balls went to heart, up from 38% final yr, and his wOBA on them is .429, 85 factors under his .514 xwOBA.

It’s most likely time to acknowledge that launch angle isn’t the one factor holding Hayes again. So far this yr, 152 gamers have hit not less than 40 fly balls. Hayes is certainly one of simply 14 whose fly ball wOBA is worse than their groundball wOBA. With the exception of wizards like Luis Arraez and Jeff McNeil, who can seemingly shoot grounders towards whichever gap they select, that’s not a listing you wish to be on. As Nathaniel Grimm famous when writing about Hayes in May, “Good power hitters are aggressive during the pitch.” Unless Hayes can exit and pull the ball extra or discover a approach to faucet into his energy when he’s elevating the ball, limiting his groundball charge can solely assist him a lot.

This is a narrative about how launch angle may be deceptive, however it’s additionally a narrative about how insanely low Hayes’ launch angle was once. Although the modifications in his batted ball profile aren’t sufficient to show him into the star that all of us hope he’ll develop into, they’re all steps in the proper course. This is the third yr in a row that they’ve trended that means. I do know I had a variety of enjoyable with Hayes’ 10 hardest-hit balls of the yr, however his launch angle on hard-hit balls remains to be 6.4° larger than it was final yr, and 5% extra of his hard-hit balls had been within the air this yr. He’s additionally tightened up the usual deviation of his launch angle by almost 3°. Hayes must be a bit extra aggressive, however the remainder of us would possibly simply want a bit extra endurance.

Thank you to reader 20longyears, who famous Hayes’ elevated launch angle throughout Ben Clemens’ chat final week.