Lifting May Be the Key to Liftoff for Daulton Varsho

If you look atop the groundball fee leaderboard, you’ll see among the typical suspects. Josh Bell and Masataka Yoshida have hit greater than two-thirds of their batted balls on the bottom this yr, whereas Eric Hosmer and Jean Segura aren’t far behind. Bell, Hosmer, and Segura have been among the most notable groundball hitters within the majors for years, whereas Yoshida was a groundball menace in Japan. Even at such an early level within the season, the groundball cream is rising to the highest.

At the underside of the leaderboard, the names are somewhat extra shocking. Noted fly ball hitters Adam Duvall and Brandon Lowe are among the many backside 10, however there are additionally a handful of gamers you wouldn’t count on to see. One such participant is Daulton Varsho.

Varsho has hit 5 groundballs this yr, good for a 20% groundball fee. Only one certified batter, Carlos Correa, has hit fewer balls on the bottom. However, it was Varsho, and never Correa, who caught my eye, due to his excessive groundball numbers on the very starting of the season. Over his first eight video games, Varsho got here to the plate 32 instances and put 19 balls in play. Only one was a groundball.

Varsho hit a pair extra grounders over the weekend, tripling his groundball complete for the season and bringing his groundball fee up from 5.6% to 13%. He hit two extra on Tuesday night time, growing his fee as soon as once more. Nevertheless, his low groundball numbers are sufficient to warrant a more in-depth look, even in such a small pattern of video games. His 13% groundball fee over the primary 10 video games of the season was the bottom determine he’s ever posted over 10-game stretch:

Varsho has all the time been good at placing the ball within the air, however nothing like this. In his three seasons with the Diamondbacks, he posted a 38.8% groundball fee with a 90 GB%+; in different phrases, his groundball fee was 10% decrease than league common. This yr, his GB%+ sits at a crisp 48.

To be truthful, Varsho additionally has two bunt singles, that means he’s technically hit a pair extra balls on the bottom. However, I’d argue these bunts really make his low groundball fee all of the extra fascinating. Typically, fly ball hitters don’t bunt that always as a result of they’d somewhat swing for an extra-base hit than accept a single. Indeed, among the many backside 30 hitters in groundball fee this season, Varsho is the one one to have tried a bunt, not to mention two – not to mention two profitable bunts. Thus, he has extra bunt hits (two) than groundball hits (zero). That’s uncommon, to say the least.

So, what’s Varsho doing in a different way? Funnily sufficient, his common launch angle isn’t particularly excessive. It’s above common and better than it was final season, however that’s not saying a lot. His 16.3 diploma launch angle ranks 77th out of 264 certified hitters:

Since Varsho is hitting so many balls within the air, you’d assume he’d have a better launch angle. However, he isn’t simply hitting the ball at larger angles, he’s making contact at higher angles. Of the 20 balls Varsho has put within the air this season, just one had a launch angle above 50 levels, and solely 5 had a launch angle above 40 levels. For comparability, practically 20% of his balls within the air final season had a launch angle above 50 levels, and 32% had a launch angle above 40 levels. Hitting balls within the air is usually factor, however at a sure level, a better launch angle will generate detrimental returns. Thus, Varsho isn’t simply swinging to keep away from groundballs in any respect prices. He’s elevating with goal:

“Now, wait a minute,” you may say. “Daulton Varsho doesn’t hit the ball very hard, and softly hit balls in the air aren’t always so effective. Is this such a good strategy for a guy like him?” That’s query, and it’s true that Varsho didn’t hit the ball very exhausting final season. His Statcast numbers ranged from good to common to mediocre:

But that’s the previous Varsho, or so it appears. The new Varsho is hitting the ball an entire lot more durable. He topped his private finest in most exit velocity on Opening Day, ripping a 112.5-mph double at Busch Stadium. His max exit velo this season presently sits within the 94th percentile; final yr, it was within the 66th. Moreover, that hard-hit double was hardly an outlier. Even for those who take away that hit, his common exit velo is considerably larger than it’s ever been. You must take away his 5 hardest-hit balls from the equation earlier than you noticed a mean exit velo that resembles his quantity from years previous. His hard-hit fee is larger too; greater than half of his balls within the air have been hard-hit:

Varsho is avoiding groundballs like by no means earlier than, which is what initially drew me to this subject. But what actually issues is that he’s elevating the ball at an optimum angle and hitting it more durable than he has up to now. Put these two issues collectively, and also you’re going to get some fairly nice outcomes. The small pattern dimension warning actually applies, however what Varsho is doing is so excessive that it’s value taking be aware immediately.

That being stated, there are a number of crimson flags in Varsho’s profile. For one factor, he has a low contact fee on swings outdoors the zone, which implies he’s whiffing on the sorts of pitches extra more likely to induce weak contact. Meanwhile, he has swung at 13 of 15 “meatball” pitches acquired; with the identical variety of pitches, the common participant would solely get 13 or 14 meatballs and swing at about 10. Moreover, Varsho has an unusually low referred to as strike fee and a low strike fee general. Of the 189 pitches he’s seen, 73 have been balls, which is about eight greater than you’d count on based mostly on his profession common strike fee. More balls means extra hitter-friendly counts, which in flip means extra alternatives to crush the baseball. Finally, it’s truthful to be skeptical a few sudden improve in a participant’s exit velocity. As Davy Andrews discovered, the common participant will increase his hard-hit fee by solely a bit greater than 1% after his rookie season.

Nevertheless, I’m maintaining a tally of Varsho as a possible breakout hitter this yr. Eventually, he’ll make some extra weak contact and get some extra referred to as strikes, however that’s to be anticipated. No one is relying on him to take care of such a low groundball fee all yr. As for his exit velocity, it is perhaps uncommon for a participant to instantly begin hitting the ball more durable in his fourth massive league season, nevertheless it’s not inconceivable. Varsho is basically doing it, and as Ben Clemens not too long ago defined, “You can’t fake hitting the ball hard. It’s one of those things that you either do or don’t, without much room for interpretation.” If Varsho can hit the baseball 112 mph, then Varsho can hit the baseball 112 mph.

More to the purpose, his microscopic groundball fee means that Varsho is attempting a brand new strategy on the plate. He appears to be seeing the ball extra clearly and taking higher swings, and if that’s the case, it stands to cause he would make extra highly effective contact too. Varsho has already hit 4 baseballs as exhausting as his Ninety fifth-percentile exit velo from the previous three seasons. It’s exhausting to consider that’s an accident. Besides, his 40 barrels final season exhibit he’s all the time been able to making good contact. This yr, he’s simply doing it extra typically:

If that is certainly the beginning of one thing new, it’s a wonderful improvement for Varsho and the Blue Jays. Heading into the yr, the 26-year-old outfielder was broadly thought-about a candidate for regression. According to the doubters, his 4.7 WAR in 2022 was inflated by unsustainable defensive metrics, whereas his 106 wRC+ was buoyed by a batting common and slugging share far larger than their anticipated counterparts. Varsho received’t be as priceless within the subject this yr (he’s now not a catcher or a daily middle fielder), however this may very well be his finest offensive season but. If he continues elevating the ball and making exhausting contact, it’ll go a protracted strategy to silencing the skeptics.