Will these sluggers be part of the 500-HR membership?

Last Saturday, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado drilled his three hundredth profession residence run, turning into the eighth energetic participant to succeed in that quantity. That obtained us questioning whether or not Arenado, or another energetic participant, will bash his approach to a fair grander milestone.

Only 28 sluggers have joined the 500 residence run membership, and when Miguel Cabrera follows Albert Pujols into retirement after this season, there’ll possible be zero energetic gamers on the checklist. (That’s barring an infinite surge from 42-year-old Nelson Cruz, whose 461 large flies, together with simply 10 final season, makes him the one contender at present inside shouting distance).

So which present energy threats are most definitely to launch residence run No. 500 sometime? To reply that query, we had 11 MLB.com writers conduct a draft, bearing in mind not solely proximity to 500, but in addition age and profession trajectory.

Keep in thoughts, an early begin is vital. Of the 28 members of this esteemed membership, all however 4 hit their first homer of their age-21 season or earlier, and all however two reached the 100-homer mark by their age-26 marketing campaign.

Here are the outcomes. (Players listed with 2023 seasonal age.)

Why he might do it: Trout’s path to 500 residence runs is comparatively easy. He’s already hit 353 residence runs, the fourth-most amongst energetic gamers. He’s solely in his early-30s and is on a assured contract by 2030. Perhaps most significantly, Trout is hitting for extra energy as he ages. Through his age-24 season in 2016, he homered as soon as each 21.2 plate appearances. Since then, he’s homered as soon as each 14.4 plate appearances. Despite accidents which have restricted him to 109 video games per full season since 2017, he has nonetheless slugged 185 residence runs throughout that span, the fifth most within the Majors.

Why he might do it: There’s a ton working in Soto’s favor right here. He debuted as a 19-year-old, so he has time on his aspect. His 125 homers earlier than turning 24 ranked seventh all-time, and that’s with a shortened 2020 season working in opposition to everybody, cumulative stats-wise. His plate self-discipline is famous, however when he does swing, the ability is unleashed. Consider this: 111 batters have swung no less than 2,250 instances because the begin of 2020 getting into Wednesday. In that span, solely three batters have had a better share of their swings end in residence runs than Soto’s 3.1%: Aaron Judge (4.3%), Kyle Schwarber (3.7%) and Pete Alonso (3.4%).

Why he might do it: There are three most important causes Arenado might attain the 500-homer mark: sturdiness, work ethic and consistency. Arenado hates taking even wanted days off, and he’s not often been injured all through his decade-long Major League profession. The seven-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove Award winner can be as intense a participant as you’ll discover, particularly in relation to placing within the work it takes to maintain himself taking part in at an elite stage. He has stated he needs to play till he’s 38, which means he’s obtained seven seasons to hit 199 extra homers. That appears doable, on condition that he has exceeded 30 homers in each season he’s performed in additional than 133 video games.

Why he might do it: While he’s the oldest participant on this checklist at 33, Stanton can be the closest to 500 of any energetic participant not named Nelson Cruz. The veteran sits 119 residence runs shy of 500 with 5 years left on his 13-year, $325 million contract — a mean of round 25 homers per season in that span would put him north of the five hundred mark. Even contemplating Stanton’s age and damage historical past, that appears doable for a participant who stays probably the most highly effective hitters within the recreation.

Why he might do it: The case for Harper is easy. First, he’s (one way or the other) simply now getting into his age-30 season (or shall be as soon as he returns from Tommy John surgical procedure, possible someday across the All-Star break.). Second, he’s set an absurd tempo so far, with a 162-game common of 33 residence runs. Third, he’s underneath contract till 2031, giving him a doable eight extra full seasons to knock out the ultimate 215. That works out to simply underneath 27 residence runs per season. To be sincere, it is perhaps extra stunning if he doesn’t make it to 500.

Why he might do it: If Soto’s on this checklist, Vlad Jr. must be right here. These two shall be in a race to 500. Vladdy will get there first. He has the top-of-the-scale energy that even Soto would not possess. Vlad Jr. reached the 100-homer mark at 23 years, 182 days previous, and his 80 homers over the previous two seasons are simply the beginning. He can hit 30 a yr in his sleep, and he is obtained some 40s in him … perhaps even 50. Vlad Jr. goes to fly previous his dad (449 homers) and turn out to be the primary Guerrero within the 500-home-run membership.

Why he might do it: Pete Alonso earned a hefty quantity of consideration right here, however Acuña – three years Alonso’s junior — is the safer alternative. Despite the shortened 2020 season and lacking half of the ‘21 campaign due to a right knee injury, Acuña is one of only 27 players in the Modern Era to record at least 120 homers prior to his age-25 season. His 2022 homer total (15) left something to be desired, but there was and continues to be nothing wrong with Acuña’s bat; he constantly ranks among the many league leaders in max exit velocity whereas posting sturdy barrel charges. Fully wholesome and with a lot of baseball in entrance of him, set a reminder for Acuña’s Five hundredth-homer celebration for some level throughout the 2034 season.

Why he might do it: You could also be stunned to see that Machado, who is just three months older than Harper and debuted within the Majors three months after him, is nearly tied with the two-time NL MVP on the profession homer checklist. After all, we don’t essentially consider Machado as a residence run hitter. Aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he’s by no means completed greater than ninth in both the AL or NL in that class. Sometimes, although, sluggish and regular wins the race. Machado stays on the sphere (second in video games performed since 2015), and he’s remarkably constant (28-37 homers in every full season over that span). With no indicators of slowing down, Machado simply inked an extension to maintain him in San Diego by 2033, which additionally offers him the good thing about time. He’s a steal on this spot.

Why he might do it: Because he’s 25 and is perhaps one of the best hitter within the recreation proper this very second. If that feels like a scorching take, notice that since he got here up in 2019, he’s been outperformed on the plate by solely Mike Trout and Aaron Judge, and he’s hit a house run as soon as each 3.8 video games. Last yr, have you learnt who turned swings into hard-hit balls probably the most usually of any hitter? It wasn’t Judge. It wasn’t Trout. It was Alvarez, 5 years youthful than every, who’s already 20% of the best way there, with probably one other dozen years of nice hitting forward of him.

Why he might do it: Alonso didn’t get the pinnacle begin that former wunderkinds resembling Harper, Trout and Soto did; his MLB debut didn’t come till age 24 in 2019. But if his profession to date has been any indication, he’s greater than outfitted to make up for the misplaced time. In Alonso’s three non-pandemic-shortened seasons, he has averaged 43.3 residence runs per yr. Perhaps equally essential for this train, he has by no means missed greater than 10 video games in a season. Let’s assume a large energy discount as Alonso ages: Even if he averaged 35 residence runs per season for the rest of his profession, he would wish to play solely 10 extra seasons to succeed in the five hundred mark, which is an inexpensive ask for the primary baseman who doesn’t flip 29 till December.

Why he might do it: Wait, this man continues to be out there to be picked? Like, the reigning residence run champion coming off an AL-record 62 dingers? Sure, he’s a little bit on the older aspect in his age-31 season this yr, however Judge is nearly midway to 500. Considering that he’s able to placing up 50-plus homers in any given yr and averages 49 per 162 video games in his profession, Judge actually simply wants to remain wholesome sufficient over the following 5 – 6 seasons to place himself on the verge. With his pure measurement, energy and energy, Judge’s capacity to hit the ball arduous, far and out ought to maintain up nicely into his late 30s. Plus, now that he’s staying with the Yankees for the lengthy haul, he’ll be capable of take full benefit of his homer-friendly residence ballpark.