Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/26/23

Ben Clemens: Hey all people, welcome to the chat. I’m gonna hold this one quick and centered right now whereas I work on the highest 50 commerce worth listing – I’m solidly in ‘hone and rehone my rankings so that I can turn them over to outside eyes’ mode proper now

Guest: Is there any information on when strikeout fee turns into extremely predictive for a participant’s profession stats, in phrases or at bats? Subjectively It seems like a man like Kelenic has crossed a ‘point of no return’, whereas, say, Volpe nonetheless has time

Ben Clemens: I don’t have an awesome reply for you right here b/c I feel it relies upon quite a bit on the way you get to these strikeouts, along with simply having them

Ben Clemens: Players could make method or swing adjustments that shift issues round later of their profession, even. But I do agree that round two seasons in I begin to suppose eh, this may not be fixable’

Matt: Do you suppose the Phillies will make the playoffs?

Ben Clemens: I’m certain this isn’t the reply you’re searching for however I feel our odds do an awesome job, it’s an actual toss up that can rely upon well being

Ben Clemens: Speaking of which:

Matt: Have you seemed on the knowledge to see what could be taking place with Harper’s energy outage?

Ben Clemens: I’ve not. It’s positively a doable subject for the weeks forward, however I’m cognizant of not attempting to do too an excessive amount of when it comes to massive open ended appears to be like at gamers whereas additionally in my busiest season

Ben Clemens: I suppose that’s a long-winded method of claiming ‘great question, no clue’

Injured Toe: Would the Angels be one staff that may take Donaldson off the Yankees palms?

Ben Clemens: They’ve already taken SO MANY third basemen off of different groups’ palms

Tiger Fan: With phrase of Jobe’s stellar 2023 debut and newfound cutter, how excessive may a wholesome and dominant season within the low minors leap him in prospect evaluations? The stuff appears intact for a top-50 man, however I acknowledge well being and proximity matter.

Ben Clemens: I imply… does that matter? It issues what he does, not what occurs to his prospect evaluations

Ben Clemens: I’m not precisely a there’s no such factor as a pitching prospect man, however I feel I kiiiiind of am? His stuff appears to be like ok that I feel he’s gonna get an opportunity to indicate it within the massive leagues if he stays wholesome

Guest!: Why have the O’s beneath Elias been a lot extra profitable creating hitters than pitchers?

Ben Clemens: They appear fairly good at creating relievers!

Ben Clemens: I don’t actually know the reply to this, I do suppose there are pattern measurement points although. I wouldn’t be snug saying they will’t determine pitching, however they’ve had a string of successes on the hititng facet for certain

Insert Witty Name Here: Made a commerce in fantasy, wished to know for those who agree with my course of.  Gave up Strider and Elly for Freeman and Dansby.  I’m hedging towards Strider getting harm, ATL will want him for the playoffs, and what occurred final 12 months makes me suppose he’s going for a phantom or possibly even actual IL stint for a couple of weeks.  Elly’s worth can’t be larger, and his BABIP is method too excessive for this to be sustainable.  Getting Freeman and Swanson will get me a a lot safer ground, whereas they’re not at their peak ranges, I feel I’d be getting a 1st RD expertise at my weakest place (1B) and Dansby can get me no less than 85% of Elly’s ninetieth percentile end result.  Sorry for the phrase vomit, something you’d disagree or counter with?

Ben Clemens: I feel this makes a variety of sense; I’m not a fantasy knowledgeable by any means however ‘bank good performances’ is sensible to me, significantly b/c I agree with you in regards to the Braves possibly attempting to maintain Strider recent

Jeff: How would you deal with the Abreu state of affairs in Houston? Sunk price, check the commerce market?

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose so, to be trustworthy. He’s been significantly better up to now month and I feel that basically issues. The Astros are certainly conserving tabs on him however I feel giving him a bit extra rope is sensible

Rays Fan 5: When are the remainder of the organizational prospect rating lists going to be launched?

Ben Clemens: As we end them, which is how these things has typically labored

Sonny: Bryan Bello appears to be like like the primary homegrown Red Sox SP since Clay Bucholz. Not a query, simply declaring it took practically 20 years for one of many richest and most ahead considering orgs to develop a single beginning pitcher

Ben Clemens: Starting pitching is wild, huh?

Ben Clemens: No one doubts that the Red Sox are utilizing a variety of sources and attempting to develop good beginning pitching

Ben Clemens: they only…. haven’t

Ben Clemens: Bello appears to be like actually good although, I’m excited to see some up to date ZiPS on him as I hold doing commerce worth stuff

C-Low: Thoughts on how Os deploy Westburg and whether or not Mateo or Frazier get benched?

Ben Clemens: I may see Frazier getting benched. I don’t suppose they’re benching Mateo, his protection is simply too necessary to them

jas: Given Jordan Walker’s batting line, do you suppose his worth is legitimately greater than negated by his protection? Things like that appear like they begin dipping into context

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose it’s, however I’m prepared to consider that it’s shut

Ben Clemens: He’s realllllly unhealthy defensively. Like, simply abysmal

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose that he’ll hold being this degree of unhealthy, however his protection is actually hurting the Cardinals quite a bit

mac: what would you think about satisfactory proof {that a} staff wants totally different hitting coaches? the yankees lineup having these hitters and the second-lowest OBP within the league, mixed with Aaron Hicks immediately reverting to an excellent participant with new coaches, appear fairly firmly damning of dillon lawson and co.

Ben Clemens: I mainly wouldn’t be capable of get there with out some sort of entry to inner knowledge

Ben Clemens: We simply don’t have the data we want from the surface

bosoxforlife: I fell out of my recliner when Maldonado bunted with runners on 1st and third and no outs within the tenth final night time. Do you agree that this can be a contender for worst tried play of all time?

Ben Clemens: I didn’t see this play so I’m now going to look it up

Ben Clemens: Yeesh bases loaded however yeah this was unhealthy

FannyGraphy: Hello Ben, as hitters age, what’s normally the primary ability to go? Or is there like a typical order? Like first their Eye, then their contact expertise, then their energy? Not together with fielding or arm or baserunning. Or is it fully participant dependent

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s fairly near participant dependent, with one massive caveat

Ben Clemens: velocity is all the time lowering

Ben Clemens: there’s simply no method round that

New UK fan: I can’t assist however consider method in vaguely moralistic phrases. It looks like one thing {that a} participant or prospect may simply repair, if solely they’d strive just a bit bit more durable. I assume that’s not the case and it’s simply as laborious to repair as, say, in-zone swing-and-miss?

Ben Clemens: Hard to say for certain, however I’m assured in saying this: these guys are all working tremendously laborious for probably the most half

Ben Clemens: Sure, may some individuals strive more durable? little question

Ben Clemens: however there are tens of millions of {dollars} at stake

Ben Clemens: it’s a very good motivating issue

Ben Clemens: it’s wild how laborious the typical baseball participant works

Mike Rizzo: Lane Thomas appears to be a man now? With 2.5 seasons left do I promote excessive or see him as a part of my subsequent winner?

Ben Clemens: that is as promote excessive as promote excessive could be imo

Ben Clemens: not as a result of I feel he’ll flip right into a pumpkin in a single day, however as a result of he actually may, and in the meantime the Nats aren’t gonna be contending that quickly anyway

greenfrog: Do you may have any thought why Alek Manoah went from Cy Young candidate final 12 months to a complete bust this 12 months at age 25? Seems like stuff, management, confidence all fell off a cliff

Ben Clemens: I actually actually don’t

Ben Clemens: I’m having a ton of hassle determining what to consider him commerce worth sensible

Ben Clemens: I actually had him excessive up the listing final 12 months and don’t know what to do about it

JHench: Following Mac’s query, what level does having a number of starters in an extended 0-for stoop, because the Pirates do (Suwinski, Bae, Hedges, Castro), grow to be an offense indictment of the group, versus a run of unhealthy luck?

Ben Clemens: like, a realllllly very long time

Ben Clemens: ehhhh, no, that’s not honest

Ben Clemens: How lengthy does it take to grow to be an indictment of the hitting coach? without end

Ben Clemens: how lengthy does it take to grow to be an indictment of the entrance workplace? sooner

Ben Clemens: like, they’re enjoying Austin Hedges quite a bit

Ben Clemens: don’t get me fallacious, that man performs nice protection, however clearly he’s not a very good offensive participant, it’s not like they have been blindsided by that

Sloth: Where do you stand on Pablo Lopez now that his thrilling early-season work has come again all the way down to earth considerably?

Ben Clemens: Still very excessive on him. I feel he appears to be like like a strong 2/3 kinda man, the stuff tick up appears actual although I’m not satisfied he’ll ever fairly ‘pitch to his fip’, like I do suppose there’s some laborious contact that’s laborious to disregard there

Evan: Predictions for who wins AL West? Rangers haven’t seemed as robust currently and I’m simply not shopping for that the Astros are this mediocre. Plus I refuse to consider Trout will ever get prolonged playoff expertise, as a lot because it saddens me to say it.

Ben Clemens: Yeah I kinda lean Astros as bizarre because it sounds given what the standings seem like proper now

ScottyW: Speaking of Hicks… is his efficiency with Baltimore sustainable?  What would his ROS outlook be based mostly solely on his time in BAL this 12 months (admitting SSS)?

Ben Clemens: Like, clearly it’s not?

Ben Clemens: I remorse to tell you that Aaron Hicks just isn’t a true-talent 161 wRC+ hitter

Ben Clemens: I’ve been which means to write down about Hicks, I’ll discover a option to sooner relatively than later I feel

Dusty’s Wristband: Martín Maldonado hasn’t posted 1 battle since 2018. What’s saved him on the Astros roster for therefore lengthy? Is it simply intangibles?

James: The actual query re: Maldonado is why he was batting in any respect in a late and shut state of affairs. Did Yainer Diaz kick Dusty’s canine?

Ben Clemens: Yeah they only appear to worth his recreation calling and different laborious to quantify catching expertise far more than we as exterior observers do

Ben Clemens: I feel they’re fallacious, for the file

Will: Regarding the Orioles’ relative success with hitters relatively than pitchers, you will need to notice that their starters have improved tremendously, and that each Gibson and Lyles have been significantly better for them than for different groups in recent times.  And that they’ve spent all their early draft picks on hitters.  I feel the pitching program has been fairly profitable–you famous the relievers already.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, respectable level

Tel: Additional proof on poor hitting coaches by Yankees – Volpe determining the issue together with his swing whereas watching video over dinner together with his minor league buddy (an issue even seen by John Smoltz on a FOX broadcast a few weeks earlier than) whereas the Yankees hitting coaches hadn’t figured it out (apparently – is also Volpe not listening)

Ben Clemens: I gained’t actually think about this to be proof, sorry to say

Ben Clemens: Good anecdata at finest

Shaq_drizzle: How does fWAR, statcast, and bWAR differ a lot on Taylor Walls? Fangraphs says he isn’t an excellent defender. Reference says he’s mainly the best defender of all time. Statcast says hearth him into the solar, backside 1%.  Meanwhile, the Rays foyer for him to get gold gloves

Ben Clemens: so, we use Statcast knowledge

Ben Clemens: in order that’s why the 2 of us are proper

Ben Clemens: proper in line

Ben Clemens: That mentioned, I feel he’s a very good defender however I belief what Statcast is saying, that he’s having a foul season defensively

Kvn: Have you taken irony on the Yankees’ expense into consideration when evaluating Aaron Hicks wrc+ projections although?

Ben Clemens: Look, hRC+ (hoped runs created plus) has very totally different outputs

Fishman: Is Eury Perez simply the most effective SP within the recreation inning-for-inning at this level?

Ben Clemens: I’m writing about Eury for tomorrow, really

Ben Clemens: And I’d say no, he isn’t the most effective starter in baseball. But he’s fairly dang good and I feel that persons are getting the fallacious thought in the event that they lose him within the flood of latest pitching debuts

Shaq_drizzle: But the Rays cherished operating out a backup shortstop with a 70 wRC+, after which touting him as a gold glove candidate. They can’t be that fallacious.  Walls needs to be doing one thing that stat forged didn’t choosing up on, as a result of they’re not giving him 500 PA if he’s really an terrible defender.

Ben Clemens: You can have a foul defensive season and nonetheless be an awesome defender

Shaq_drizzle: And FYI, Taylor Walls was backside 3% final 12 months. Something’s off.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, look, Statcast is typically kinda bizarre on the Rays for no matter motive, however I don’t suppose they’re tremendous fallacious right here

Ben Clemens: right here’s a very good mike petriello thread on partitions

Ben Clemens:

Phil: I all the time assume that groups lobbying for Gold Gloves is extra about constructing clubhouse good will than something significant. The Red Sox made a halfhearted try for Hunter Renfroe–after which promptly traded him for a defensive specialist.

Ben Clemens: That has quite a bit to do with it

Steve O: Have you checked out AAA pitching strains for high prospects? Seems just like the ABS is screwing with pitchers. Lots of pitchers are pitching terribly in AAA and performing higher in MLB. Bobby Miller, Taj Bradley, and so on.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, some are doing higher after which not doing nicely int he bigs, although, so I’m inclined to simply say that it’s noise till I do an extra deep dive into it

Ben Clemens: That’s a reasonably laborious factor to disambiguate, I’d say

Ben Clemens: like, is it ABS, is it a couple of of the gamers, and so on.

Matt VW: Is there some secret sauce to the Marlins overachieving at this level, or is it principally simply luck in a single run video games?

Ben Clemens: i KNOW that marlins followers would vastly favor it to be some secret sauce, however I’m unhappy to say that c’mon, certainly it’s not

Ben Clemens: the percentages that it’s some new factor are simply low

Ben Clemens: the percentages that it may hold going? certain, why not

Anon21: Any likelihood that the rise in interleague play will get rolled again? Reduces intrigue in division races, will increase journey, creates a variety of matchups with no historical past and decrease stakes. I appreciated it higher once I knew solely about 20 of the largest names within the AL.

Ben Clemens: I’m unsure whether or not I agree with you on this one, to be clear. I’m not an NL or AL fan, however I sort of like that my dad is aware of extra AL gamers now

Ben Clemens: But that toothpaste just isn’t going again into the tube

Ben Clemens: Getting the Yankees to extra stadiums is a a method prepare

Guest: Fernando Tatis within the high 10 once more?

Ben Clemens: No spoilers. But additionally, yeah for certain!

Shaq_drizzle: They’re sitting Isaac Paredes vs lefty’s and Brandon Lowe (vs RHP) in order that they will play on Taylor Walls at third base and second.  I can’t purchase that probably the most analytical staff in baseball has Billy Brickhands with a slapdick bat enjoying over Aranda, Paredes, and Lowe (and selecting Walls over the unique slapdick, Xavier Edwards).  Something needs to be skewing his metrics.

Ben Clemens: what I don’t suppose you’re getting right here, and I’m not attempting to say this in a imply method or something, is that the metrics could be proper and the rays can nonetheless suppose that what they’ve described, accurately, as taking place isn’t more likely to hold taking place

Ben Clemens: I dno’t actually have a horse on this explicit race

Ben Clemens: however ‘the rays are doing a thing so they must be right and the metrcis must be wrong’ doesn’t persuade me

Steve Cohen: Do my Mets deserve a move for attempting to purchase an successful MLB staff whereas permitting the farm to develop? Process feels proper even when there was a less expensive option to do it. Really thought I may Steinbrenner a successful membership.

Ben Clemens: I feel i agree with this

Ben Clemens: the method is hardly excellent and I feel that you may make a strong argument that buck is beginning to harm greater than he helps

Ben Clemens: But yeah, I feel the thought of attempting to construct up the farm whereas spending an ungodly sum of cash to maintain the massive league staff cruising is sweet

bosoxforlife: On a scale of 1-100 how shocked are you that each the Mets and Cardinals are this unhealthy?

Ben Clemens: fairly shocked

Ben Clemens: extra by the Cardinals than by the Mets, the Mets had a variety of pitching well being uncertainty and likewise a more durable division

SC: A good friend of a good friend works for the Rays. Met them at a Yankees Rays recreation a few months in the past and Taylor Walls got here up. They have been actually actually insistent that publicly out there analytics have been out of line with the Rays inner analytics on Walls and that Walls was being severely underrated and the org cherished him. Just FWIW

Ben Clemens: I’d be very involved for those who had a good friend who works for the Rays, and he mentioned “Oh yeah Taylor Walls sucks, we’re running him out there to troll Tom Tango”

Baty for Coco Crisps: If Acuna has a 30/70 season however Arraez hits .400, does Arraez win MVP?

Ben Clemens: I’d give it to Acuna however I’m unsure what the voters would do

Marshall: Last week I had an epiphany that Tony Gonsolin has the 2nd highest ERA+ by way of 60 begins within the final 100 years (solely Dwight Gooden was higher). Since I noticed this, Gonsolin has had two straight unhealthy begins. How good do you suppose Gonsolin is?

Ben Clemens: I feel he’s a strong third starter who possible will get flattered by the Dodgers placing him in conditions to succeed with an exquisite protection behind him

Ben Clemens: Maybe a weak two?

SC: I suppose the important thing half was that the Rays have been conscious of the general public knowledge vs their very own personal knowledge

Ben Clemens: d be actually anxious in the event that they weren’t

Phil: If Arraez hits .400 he will certainly win MVP. If you’re an AP author, how do you clarify to your editor voting some other method? It can be the largest story in years, a lot larger than Acuna having a very good however essentially Acunalike season.

Ben Clemens: I’m unsure the voters have to elucidate issues to their editor, really

Ben Clemens: however yeah, I feel that lots of people would vote for a .400 hitter b/c he hit 400

Izzy: I noticed the article on Alexis Diaz earlier right now. Do you suppose he’s elite going ahead, or simply having an elite season.

Ben Clemens: I’d say having an elite season simply because I don’t belief relievers that a lot in the long term

Ben Clemens: however he appears to be like very superb to me, i’d be blissful to have him as my staff’s nearer until I had one of many extremely elite sort guys

Ben Clemens: Clase and so forth

Sonny: Acuna going 40/60 for a division winner would outweigh Arraez hitting .400 on a third place staff

Ben Clemens: I agree with you, to be cdlear, I’m simply not completely certain that we’re the voting constituency

McGraw45: My dad grew up in San Diego and made me a Padres fan. I blame him for my frustration in life.

Ben Clemens: Presented with out remark

Who’s Fabio?: Do you continue to mud off the ole Exploding Kittens deck?  Did they go too far with enlargement packs or does that hold it attention-grabbing?

Ben Clemens: Only very sometimes however I do like the sport

Ben Clemens: therea re simply a variety of video games lately

David: Not a query, only a comparability.  The Alek Manor state of affairs jogs my memory a variety of one other Toronto Blue Jays pitcher–Ricky Romero.  After successful 15 video games with a 2.92 ERA in 2011 (when he was 26 and following two different good years), Romero fell aside the next season in 2012, together with his ERA+ falling from 146 to 73, his ERA ballooning to five.77, and issuing a league-leading 105 walks.  He pitched 4 extra video games in 2013 and by no means pitched within the massive leagues once more.

Ben Clemens: Let’s hope not!

Ben Clemens: Alright, it’s midday and I’ve received to get out of right here. Thanks quite a bit for spending time with me right now and discussing all types of issues

Ben Clemens: I actually recognize the questions, and I apologize if I didn’t reply yours, hopefully I’ll decide yours subsequent time. Have an exquisite day, everybody