Again Off Alexa, Jose Siri Is on a Rampage

I prefer to assume I’m fairly tuned in to what’s happening in baseball every day. I examine the information and the standings repeatedly, and my morning wouldn’t be full and not using a fast scan of the leaderboards in all the most important statistical classes. That being so, it’s uncommon that I’ll be caught off guard by a participant’s ERA, or batting common, or WAR. That doesn’t imply it by no means occurs, although, and when it does, I usually really feel compelled to share my shock.

With that introduction as a clue, would you care to guess who leads the Rays in residence runs? You know, the Rays who’ve extra homers than any group within the American League. The Rays who rank second in baseball in runs scored and first in wRC+. The Rays who do all that regardless of taking part in in one of many least hitter-friendly residence ballparks within the recreation. Yeah, these Rays.

It’s not All-Star first baseman Yandy Díaz or rookie sensation Luke Raley. It’s not Wander Franco, or Isaac Paredes, or anybody with the final title Lowe.

I’ll offer you one other trace: Two gamers are literally tied for the group lead in lengthy balls, and one in every of them isn’t so exhausting to guess. Randy Arozarena hit his sixteenth homer of the season on Sunday, pulling even with the thriller participant for first place, and solely type of ruining the guessing recreation I had deliberate. Then once more, the title and featured picture already gave it away, so it’s time I pull again the facade of this rhetorical gadget. No group within the American League has extra residence runs than the Rays, and nobody on the Rays has extra residence runs than Jose Siri.

Having you guess the thriller participant may really feel unoriginal within the age of the stainless grid, however I prefer it on this case as a result of it drives residence the purpose that I by no means would’ve guessed Siri was main the Rays in residence runs on the midway level of the season. In 325 journeys to the plate final 12 months, he hit solely seven. Our preseason Depth Charts projections noticed him hitting 17 homers in 120 video games; he’s already at 16 in 52. Furthermore, Siri doesn’t have almost sufficient plate appearances to qualify for fee stat leaderboards, nor does he have sufficient residence runs or RBI to look among the many league leaders in any counting stats. You may examine the leaderboards on daily basis with out ever seeing his title.

I used to be additionally stunned by Siri’s energy due to some snap judgments I made about his profile. Last season, he was the third-fastest participant in baseball; his 30.4 ft/s dash pace was behind solely Corbin Carroll and Bubba Thompson. He additionally completed within the 99th percentile in OAA and the Ninety fifth percentile in outfielder soar. When you see numbers like that from an unranked prospect, it’s simple to categorize him as a glove-first participant and transfer on. After all, it made good sense that the Rays could be on the lookout for one other Kevin Kiermaier sort after they traded for Siri, and he completed the season with 14 stolen bases, 15 OAA, and a 75 wRC+. It’s exhausting to say my first impression was unreasonable.

Yet the reality is that Siri has all the time had energy. In Eric Longenhagen’s first Siri write-up, he praised the younger outfielder for his “above-average raw power” earlier than mentioning something about protection. A couple of years later, in Siri’s last prospect analysis right here at FanGraphs, Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel gave his recreation energy and fielding the identical 45/50 grade and his uncooked energy a 55/55. Then, in September 2021, Siri smacked 4 residence runs in 21 video games, good for a 158 wRC+ and .304 remoted energy in his first style of the majors. All of a sudden, he didn’t sound like a glove-first heart fielder; all he wanted was a while to find his energy on the main league stage.

Suffice it to say, Siri has accomplished simply that. In truth, he’s hitting so many residence runs that his teammates are having hassle maintaining. His own residence runs account for greater than 50% of his runs scored and runs batted in. Only 5 gamers (min. 10 HR) have pushed themselves in for a better proportion of their runs and RBI: Joey Gallo, Jake Burger, Francisco Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani, and Jorge Soler. Anything that has to do with runs and RBI isn’t going to be essentially the most high-quality evaluation (and it says as a lot in regards to the groups because it does the gamers), besides, that is a formidable group for an aspiring energy hitter to be part of:

Perhaps I shouldn’t be stunned to see Tampa Bay turning one other unheralded prospect right into a star, however there’s one thing completely different about Siri. The Rays have a knack for locating and creating All-Stars, however additionally they excel at discovering worth on the margins; at positions like catcher and heart discipline, that always means discovering an ideal defender moderately than an offensive powerhouse.

Indeed, power-hitting heart fielders are few and much between in baseball, they usually’re even fewer and farther between in St. Petersburg, Florida. In 25 years as a serious league franchise, the closest the Rays have come to a slugging heart fielder is B.J. Upton, who had a couple of 20-plus homer seasons with the Rays, although his finest energy season got here the 12 months earlier than he transitioned to heart full-time. Overall, Upton had a .167 ISO throughout eight years with the membership. In a single season, essentially the most energy Tampa Bay ever acquired from a middle fielder was in 2006, when Rocco Baldelli completed with a .231 ISO in 92 video games.

Across 54 participant seasons, 24 completely different heart fielders have taken at the very least 150 PA for the Rays in a single 12 months. Only Upton, Baldelli, Brett Phillips, and Elijah Dukes completed with an ISO above .200 in any particular person season. As of as we speak, Siri has an remoted energy of .320. Meanwhile, solely Baldelli, Upton, and Gerald Williams hit greater than 15 residence runs in a season as a middle fielder for the Rays; Siri has 16 with 80 video games left to play. He has an inexpensive likelihood to change into the primary Rays heart fielder to ever cross the 30-homer threshold.

In an effort to appropriate my preconceived notions about Siri, I sat down to observe some highlights, and it didn’t take lengthy to understand that uncooked energy definitely isn’t his downside. The 6-foot-2, 175-pound heart fielder’s hardest residence run of the season was hit at almost 114 mph, placing his max exit velocity within the prime 10% of the league. His .495 wOBA on contact ranks thirteenth within the majors (min. 150 PA), and his .484 xwOBA on contact ranks twentieth. The Statcast anticipated metrics may even be underrating his energy as a result of Siri pulls the ball a lot greater than the common hitter; his pull fee is about 7% larger than league common, and his reverse discipline fee is about 7% decrease. The numbers are much more excessive on balls within the air, the place his pull fee is 10% larger than common; his reverse discipline fee is sort of 13% decrease. When a batter hits the ball exhausting within the air and to his pull facet, he’s going to see good outcomes. That’s precisely why Siri is on tempo to smack 50 homers per 162 video games.

If you’re in any respect conversant in this style of FanGraphs article, you realize what’s coming subsequent: It’s extremely unlikely Siri goes to maintain up this tempo. First issues first, he’s working a 29.6% HR/FB. That’s a quantity you solely see from a transcendent energy hitter like Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. Statcast estimates Siri ought to have hit about 13 residence runs this 12 months, which continues to be spectacular, however not fairly so surprising; he would solely rank fifth on his group in homers, and his 24% HR/FB could be nearer to Kyle Schwarber than Judge.

It’s additionally value mentioning that Siri has a surprisingly low Thirty seventh-percentile common exit velocity and Forty first-percentile hard-hit fee this 12 months regardless of his Ninety fifth-percentile barrel fee. This could possibly be proof that he’s taking advantage of his restricted exhausting contact by barreling nearly each hard-hit ball he will get, however for a hitter with a lot energy potential, it’s extra doubtless that he isn’t recording as many hard-hit balls as he may. He swings at a ton of unhealthy pitches, which ends up in poor-quality contact. Batted balls labeled as “weak,” “topped,” and “under” account for 73% of his non-barrels. For the common hitter, such poor contact solely makes up 66% of non-barrels. All that hacking additionally means he’s extra prone to fall behind within the depend, giving him fewer alternatives to crush the baseball. In different phrases, Siri is type of all or nothing; he’s able to nice issues when he’s doing every thing he’s speculated to, however he’s additionally liable to name your dad whenever you ask for a reminder to purchase bread. (Siri joke? Check.)

On a associated notice, just one.7% of Siri’s batted balls have been labeled as “solid” contact this 12 months. The solely hitters who’ve made much less stable contact are Andrew Benintendi, Myles Straw, Nick Madrigal, and TJ Friedl. Siri is a totally completely different sort of hitter than any of these guys, so I’m inclined to imagine his stable contract fee will normalize with time, and until he improves his plate self-discipline, it’s doubtless these solid-hit balls will come out of his barrel fee.

I’ve a delicate spot in my coronary heart for any participant who outperforms my expectations. It’s good to be spot-on with my evaluations, however it’s equally thrilling when a participant proves me improper. I made a snap judgment about Siri final season (He appears like a glove-first heart fielder? He have to be a glove-first heart fielder!), and with each residence run he hits, he jogs my memory to be a little bit extra cautious the subsequent time I slap that label on a participant. He’ll want to enhance his plate self-discipline if he needs to maintain hitting at a 50-homer tempo, however the energy is unquestionably actual. Siri is to not be neglected.