The Improbably Scorching Mickey Moniak

A double-whammy of accidents and underperformance has hampered the Angels of their bid to make the playoffs earlier than Shohei Ohtani hits free company, however one shiny spot has been the play of Mickey Moniak. The former primary decide of the 2016 draft appeared like a bust when the Phillies included him as one among two outfielders in final yr’s deadline acquisition of Noah Syndergaard, and his late-season cup of espresso in Anaheim didn’t precisely dispel that notion. But since his promotion in mid-May, he’s been one of many majors’ best hitters, producing a 170 wRC+ in 165 plate appearances.

Moniak despatched the struggling Yankees reeling with a giant night time on Tuesday in Anaheim. In the primary inning, he clubbed a two-run homer off Domingo Germán, and whereas he struck out within the third with the bases loaded, he adopted Ohtani’s RBI triple with an RBI single within the fifth to cap the scoring at 5–1. He additionally added a single of Albert Abreu within the eighth, giving him three three-hit video games within the first 5 of the second half and lengthening his hitting streak to 10 video games.

Including a 1-for-5 night time within the Angels’ 7–3 win on Wednesday, the lefty-swinging Moniak is hitting a scorching .331/.364/.631 with 11 homers. Among batters with 150 PA (nearly half of quantity wanted to qualify for the batting title), his slugging proportion ranks third within the majors behind solely Ohtani and Aaron Judge, and his batting common is fourth behind Luis Arraez, Corey Seager, and Ronald Acuña Jr., together with his wRC+ additionally rating fourth at that cutoff:

That’s good firm! The method Moniak is crashing that occasion is quite exceptional, and nearly definitely unsustainable. It’s as if he’s starring in an prolonged run of Small Sample Theater, the place his numbers are previous the purpose of stabilization however in some way defying the gravity of regression. Catch the present earlier than it leaves city.

It can be completely unforgivable if the Angels waste the Ohtani/Moniak years

— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) July 19, 2023

Before the numbers, some historical past. The Phillies drafted Moniak out of La Costa Canyon High School in Carlsbad, California. Baseball America had ranked him because the fifth-best prospect coming into the draft, writing partly, “He’s a hitter with feel for the barrel that evokes comparisons to Christian Yelich, a fellow SoCal prep outfield product, and solid power to the gaps.” MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis preferred the decide, calling Moniak a participant with “one of the highest floors in the Draft,” and including, “He’s a surefire up-the-middle-player in a Draft that doesn’t have many of them. Moniak is going to hit. He’s going to run. He’s going to play a good center field.”

In retrospect, the high of that individual draft has been one thing of a dud so far. The Dodgers’ Will Smith (chosen at no. 32) is the one first-round decide from that yr who has reached double digits in bWAR (used right here as a result of Baseball Reference has complete cross-linking in its database) at 13.8, with Dylan Carlson (picked thirty third by the Cardinals) second at 6.2 and Cal Quantrill (picked eighth by the Padres) third at 5.8. Even with Moniak’s scorching partial season, the highest six picks have netted 2.7 WAR, with the Reds’ Nick Senzel 1.6 WAR within the crimson, the Braves’ Ian Anderson (3.6 WAR) within the weeds on account of management points and Tommy John surgical procedure, the Rockies’ Riley Pint and Brewers’ Corey Ray every having made only one big-league look, and the Athletics’ A.J. Puk (1.0 WAR) winding up within the bullpen after accidents.

After Moniak hit .284/.340/.409 with one homer and 10 steals in 194 PA for the Phillies’ Gulf Coast League affiliate, he ranked no. 17 on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects List within the spring of 2017, no. 19 on MLB Pipeline’s record, and no. 27 on FanGraphs’ record. Eric Longenhagen put a future grade of 70 on Moniak’s hit device, writing:

Scouts see Moniak’s slight body and marvel if he’ll ever develop into greater than 40 sport energy, but when he hits in addition to he’s anticipated to, it isn’t going to matter. Moniak’s swing is free and easy, his really feel for shifting the bat head across the zone is superior. He’s a possible plus-plus hitter who runs nicely sufficient to play middle area, and his instincts for the place make him a possible above-average defender there.

After Moniak struggled at A-Level Lakewood in 2017 (.236/.284/.341, 5 HR, 11 SB, 109 Ok), he fell to 88th on MLB Pipeline’s record and off the BA and FanGraphs lists fully, putting simply sixth on the 2018 group record of the latter. “The 2017 season was a disaster for Moniak, whose unexpected maladies at the plate (breaking-ball recognition and poor plate coverage chief among them) were exacerbated by his still immature frame wearing down as the summer drew on,” wrote Eric, who downgraded the hit device to a future 55 however nonetheless noticed him in a constructive gentle: “A 100 to 105 wRC+ hitter who offers solid center-field defense is a 50/55 type of player.”

Moniak struggled together with his strategy as he rose to increased ranges, posting OBPs simply above .300 in each 2018 and ’19 and treading water within the context of the Phillies’ prospect record; he ranked tenth in 2019 as a 40+ FV however was again as much as seventh as a forty five FV in ’20 after gaining energy and homering 11 occasions at hitter-friendly Reading in Double-A. He tasted main league motion in the course of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, going 3-for-14 in eight video games, however the Phillies didn’t see sufficient to provide him greater than a passing look the next yr as they tried to fill their middle area void whereas awaiting Odúbel Herrera’s return from a home violence suspension. Moniak hit a disappointing .238/.299/.447 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2021 and went simply 3-for-33 in 21 video games, primarily off the bench, in 4 separate stints with the massive membership.

Though he sank to twenty second as a 40 FV on the Phillies’ 2022 prospect record, Moniak’s season was a sequence of breaks. Working with new hitting coach Kevin Long, he made changes to his setup throughout spring coaching; by shifting him nearer to the plate, Long helped Moniak attain pitches on the outer half whereas straightening out his stride, which had been skewed towards left-center. “I was hoping by being on the plate that it would automatically take care of his stride direction and it did,” Long instructed the Philadelphia Inquirer. “[I]t was probably the easiest fix that I’ve had in my 16 years in the big leagues… It’s kind of comical.”

After a powerful spring, Moniak was slated to get the majority of the middle area responsibility as Herrera recuperated from a strained indirect till a Ryan Yarbrough pitch induced a hairline fracture in his proper hand within the group’s remaining exhibition sport. He joined the Phillies in late May after a rehab stint however was despatched to Lehigh after going simply 4-for-25 with 11 strikeouts. He went forwards and backwards two extra occasions — working his profession complete with the Phillies to 13 — earlier than being dealt to the Angels within the Syndergaard commerce. As Ben Clemens famous, “If he clicks, Moniak will do so as a power/average threat, but I’m skeptical of that happening given his downright terrifying swing-and-miss numbers. Maybe he can figure something out, given that he’s only 24, but unless something changes, he won’t hit enough to put together an average offensive line.” In his roundup of traded prospects, Eric summarized him as, “Former no. 1 overall pick who now looks like a fifth outfielder.”

Adding harm to that insult, Moniak performed simply 5 video games, homering twice, with the Angels earlier than struggling one other fracture on August 7, this time of the tip of his left center finger whereas attempting to bunt. After a month-long absence, he went simply 8-for-46 with one stroll and 20 strikeouts upon returning.

Thus Moniak entered his age-25 season with a profession batting line of .151/.197/.273 (26 wRC+) with 4 homers and -0.6 WAR in 149 PA. The Angels, set with an outfield of Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, and Hunter Renfroe, stashed him and struggling post-hype prospect Jo Adell at Triple-A Salt Lake City. Moniak stored working to enhance, implementing Angels assistant hitting coach Phil Plantier’s solutions directed at opening up his stance, conserving his head again, and lowering his tendency to swing and miss. After a strong .277/.341/.518 at hitter-friendly SLC, Monak was recalled on May 13. He spent most of his first eight weeks recognizing for the underwhelming Ward and Renfroe towards righties in each outfield corners. Since Trout suffered a fractured hamate, Moniak has taken over middle area, hitting hit .395/.435/.558 in 46 PA, although the Angels have gone simply 4–6.

Moniak’s scorching season stats, which have been aided by his being shielded from lefties (he’s received simply 21 PA and two hits towards them), include some interconnected absurdities, most notably a gaudy 30.3% strikeout charge and a ridiculous .427 BABIP. The strikeout charge stems partly from him chasing a whopping 49.4% of pitches outdoors the zone. That didn’t come from nowhere; he had a 44.1% chase charge in his numerous stints previous to this season. It’s clearly a bit increased this yr, increased than all however one different main league hitter with a minimum of 150 PA, and the eighth-highest of the previous decade at that cutoff:

Two issues stand out. First, Moniak’s swinging-strike charge can be extraordinarily excessive — tops this yr and 14th for the previous decade at that 150 PA minimal. Second, a lot of the gamers chasing at this clip didn’t even handle league-average manufacturing. Moniak and Diaz, a rookie catcher with the Astros, are the one ones with a wRC+ of 100 or higher, and each are on the decrease finish of the PA vary. Meanwhile, of the 25 gamers with a swinging-strike charge of 20% or increased, he’s one among simply 4 with a wRC+ of 100 or increased, joined by the 2021 variations of Javier Báez (21.7% in 547 PA however a 117 wRC+) and Luke Voit (20.2% in 241 PA, with a 112 wRC+), and this yr’s mannequin of Joey Gallo (20.4% in 251 PA, with a 112 wRC+).

Even together with his transfer nearer to the plate, Moniak is extra liable to chasing pitches off the within nook than the surface nook, although a lot of the whiffs are approaching pitches beneath quite than above the zone.

Contact with these pitches isn’t serving Moniak nicely. In 65 PA by way of balls outdoors the strike zone coming into Wednesday, he’s hit .140 and slugged .211 for a .218 wOBA, with 5 of his eight hits by way of changeups; he’s 1-for-22 on breaking balls and 1-for-21 on four-seamers and sinkers. His whiff charge towards fastballs outdoors the zone is 48%, and towards different pitch varieties it ranges from 52% to 64%. Meanwhile, he’s strolling simply 3% of the time.

Moniak’s zone contact charge of 79.1% is about six factors beneath the main league common, however when he connects, wow: His .435 AVG, .905 SLG and .569 wOBA all lead the majors amongst these with a minimum of 50 PA on pitches within the strike zone:

Moniak leads the three precise classes, with Judge tops in two of the three anticipated classes (Acuña Jr. leads in xBA within the zone at .386). You’d definitely count on his numbers to say no as his pattern measurement will increase, however observe that he’s already banked almost as many homers as among the gamers with double the PAs within the cut up.

Combine Moniak’s dreadful numbers when swinging at pitches outdoors the zone together with his bonkers numbers on these contained in the zone, and also you get a .427 BABIP; he had the Wild Card-era lead till Wednesday night time, when the Twins’ Julien (.432) surpassed him.

Moniak isn’t hitting the ball particularly onerous. His 88.5 mph common exit velocity would rank within the thirty third percentile if he had sufficient batted ball occasions to qualify, and his 35.5% hard-hit charge within the twenty fourth. That stated, his 15% barrel charge would place within the 93rd percentile. You don’t discover these sort of pairings within the wild. He’s not onerous to identify on this scatter plot of the hard-hit charges of batters with barrel charges inside two proportion factors in both path (13%–17%):

All instructed, taking the great with the unhealthy, Moniak is nicely forward of his .278 xBA, .539 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA (his total wOBA is .419), however I don’t suppose for a minute that both he or the Angels could be sad if he have been merely to match these anticipated numbers over a bigger pattern even in a platoon position. What Moniak is doing is unimaginable, inconceivable, and, as ought to be fairly clear from these comparisons, nearly definitely unsustainable. Enjoy this tear whereas it lasts; he’s another reason to control the Angels whereas Trout is out and Ohtani remains to be on the roster.