Jose Trevino’s second season within the Bronx has taken a flip from dangerous to worse. After incomes an All-Star choice in his first 12 months with the Yankees, Trevino struggled to offer even serviceable offense in 2023. Then, on Friday, the 30-year-old catcher revealed he would endure surgical procedure on a torn wrist ligament he’s been coping with since spring coaching. The harm may clarify his sharp offensive downturn, nevertheless it additionally means he’ll miss the rest of the season. It’s yet one more robust blow for a Yankees squad that has handled greater than its justifiable share of accidents.
On Opening Day, 26 of 27 FanGraphs staffers picked the Yankees to achieve the playoffs. It wasn’t a foul prediction, by any means; that they had the best preseason playoff odds within the American League and extra projected WAR than any staff in baseball. Yet the roster we’ve seen this season is a tragic facsimile of the one we imagined earlier than the 12 months started. According to the Injured List Ledger at Baseball Prospectus, the Yankees rank first by a mile in cumulative worth misplaced to harm. Of the seven gamers on the roster who had been All-Stars in 2022, 5 have spent important time on the shelf: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodón, and now Trevino. Other gamers who’ve missed time embrace Frankie Montas, Harrison Bader, Josh Donaldson, and Luis Severino.
Judge’s absence looms largest, however an extended checklist of accidents to the beginning rotation has damage the staff most of all. The Yankees had the primary rotation on our positional energy rankings this offseason, however their starters at the moment rank twenty second in WAR. Rodón missed the primary 14 weeks of the season with forearm issues and Cortes will miss not less than two months with a strained rotator cuff. Meanwhile, Severino missed the primary eight weeks with a lat pressure and Montas has been out all 12 months after shoulder surgical procedure. Trevino is not any pitcher (watch out you don’t confuse him along with his teammate Lou Trivino), however he is without doubt one of the greatest defensive catchers within the sport, and pitchers are higher when he’s behind the dish. Over the final two years, Yankees pitchers have a 3.28 ERA after they’re working with Trevino, in comparison with a 3.79 ERA with every other catcher. To use a extra significant statistic than catcher ERA, Trevino led the league in framing runs final season and ranks fourth this 12 months. On a fee foundation, he’s only a smidge behind league leaders Austin Hedges and William Contreras. Thus, his harm is yet one more punch within the intestine wrist for the pitching workers.
Trevino’s outstanding protection, and specifically his elite pitch framing, is his calling card. However, he broke out final season by complementing his top-notch defensive abilities with common offense for a catcher. This 12 months, sadly, his offensive numbers plummeted throughout the board. He slashed .210/.257/.312 in 55 video games, and his 58 wRC+ ranks within the backside 5% of the league (min. 150 PA). Yankees supervisor Aaron Boone made it clear he thought the harm had affected Trevino’s swing, however the catcher himself refused guilty his poor efficiency on his wrist.
On the one hand, Trevino’s 168 PA this season hardly present sufficient knowledge to conclude that he’s truly any worse. After all, he slashed .229/.253/.340 with a 67 wRC+ over his remaining 48 video games of 2022, and so far as we all know, he was completely wholesome at that time. Simply put, each hitter goes by way of peaks and valleys in a season. When you have got a man who’s solely a mediocre hitter at the very best of instances, he’s sure to have some actually dreadful stretches. To that finish, Trevino’s BABIP this 12 months was .221, which is low even for a soft-hitting, slow-moving catcher. Meanwhile, his .282 xwOBA was nearly equivalent to his .281 xwOBA from 2022.
Then once more, in case you dig a bit deeper, you’ll see that Trevino reached these two related xwOBAs in very other ways. His high quality of contact metrics had been down throughout the board this 12 months: common exit velocity, barrel fee, candy spot fee, you identify it. However, he reduce his strikeout fee from 17.6% to 13.1%, and he didn’t sacrifice any walks within the course of. Thus, he noticed a 50% enhance in his year-over-year walk-to-strikeout ratio. He was making worse contact, however he was additionally making a lot extra of it that the 2 canceled one another out, not less than so far as xwOBA is worried. This means that maybe his wrist was an issue in spite of everything, however Trevino discovered a technique to compensate with plate self-discipline.
It’s additionally doable that opposing pitchers simply adjusted their method towards Trevino, which regularly occurs after a very sudden participant has a giant season on the plate. And wouldn’t you realize it, Trevino noticed sinkers 23% of the time this 12 months, up from 14% final season. He additionally noticed the next share of all different pitches within the backside third of the strike zone and down low beneath the zone. This suggests pitchers had been making an attempt to induce extra groundballs from Trevino, a plan of motion that makes excellent sense. He’s good at making contact, and he can often do some harm when he hits one within the air. The greatest technique to assault Trevino is to throw him pitches he can’t elevate. If this was certainly the plan, it labored fairly nicely. His groundball fee rose from 39.9% final 12 months to 51.1% this 12 months, which works an extended technique to clarify why his high quality of contact numbers deteriorated. To additional assist this idea, Trevino’s xwOBAcon on fly balls and line drives truly improved this season. In different phrases, when he did elevate the baseball, he was nonetheless able to doing harm.
As is commonly the case, the most definitely rationalization for Trevino’s stoop is a mixture of the entire above. He was unfortunate, he was hurting, and opposing pitchers figured him out. Ultimately, the Yankees will simply have to attend and see how he performs upon his return.
In the meantime, long-time backup Kyle Higashioka remains to be round, and he ought to be capable to take over full-time catching duties. He’s having an identical season to Trevino, with a 68 wRC+ and 0.9 WAR in 62 video games. However, the standard of his protection, and subsequently the quantity of worth he gives, differs relying on the place you look. Our calculations recommend he’s a constantly wonderful pitch framer, and the numbers at Baseball Prospectus are much more constructive about his framing. However, the numbers at Baseball Savant point out his framing abilities have been deteriorating for a number of years, and he’s now nearer to common than wonderful. Baseball Savant additionally suggests he’s been a dreadful blocker this 12 months with a mediocre arm. Regardless, it’s clear the Yankees worth his defensive abilities. They drafted him out of highschool in 2008, and he’s been with the group ever since. On multiple event, he’s earned reward for his game-calling and work ethic from his coaches and teammates.
One drawback, nonetheless, is that Higashioka has all the time been a backup, and he’s by no means caught a full season. To get by way of 62 extra video games (and hopefully a postseason run), the Yankees will want one other catcher to share the load. Currently, the one different backstop on the 40-man roster is Ben Rortvedt, who doesn’t have a lot upside and has even much less massive league expertise. One must think about the Yankees will not less than be procuring round for a veteran catcher earlier than the deadline.
Catchers who might be out there embrace Yasmani Grandal, Yan Gomes, and Elias Díaz. None is a difference-making participant on both aspect of the ball, however all are succesful veterans. Díaz may be the least interesting as a result of he’s beneath contract by way of 2024, and the Yankees are hoping to have Trevino again subsequent spring. Grandal is a free agent after the season, whereas Gomes has a membership possibility for 2024. Grandal, being a switch-hitter, may be the very best match. He hits right-handed pitching higher than Gomes, Díaz, or Higashioka, and the Yankees, who’ve a 93 wRC+ towards right-handed pitching this season, may use all the assistance they will get in that division.
Hedges and Tucker Barnhart might be out there too, however you need to presume the Yankees would goal somebody who may present not less than a bit offensive spark. There’s additionally Mike Zunino, previously of the Guardians. As a free agent, he wouldn’t price the Yankees any prospects, however once more, he received’t present any offensive upside.
With the stretch run on the horizon, the Yankees discover themselves in an uncommon place: the underside of the AL East. That says simply as a lot in regards to the steep competitors within the division because it does the Yankees themselves, nevertheless it’s alarming nonetheless. This staff hasn’t completed a season in final place since 1990, a 12 months that just one participant on the payroll, Donaldson, is sufficiently old to recollect. The Yankees are solely two video games again of a Wild Card berth, however their playoff odds have fallen to 35.5%. They rank tenth within the league in run differential, they usually have a shedding document because the begin of June. This wasn’t the way it was alleged to go.
Still, the Yankees’ playoff odds are low however hardly insurmountable. They had nearly equivalent odds on this date in 2021, they usually went on to edge out the Blue Jays for the ultimate Wild Card spot. The season is over for Trevino, nevertheless it isn’t over for the Yankees simply but.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com