The 2023 Replacement-Level Killers: Shortstop and Third Base

Today the Killers take a flip to the left aspect of the infield. While nonetheless specializing in groups that meet the free definition of contenders (a .500 document or Playoff Odds of a minimum of 10%), and which have gotten about 0.6 WAR or much less out of a place to this point — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this 12 months I’ve integrated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for a further perspective. Sometimes that will counsel that the workforce will clear the bar by a major margin, besides, I’ve included them right here as a result of the workforce’s efficiency at that spot is price a glance.

As famous beforehand, a few of these conditions are extra dire than others, notably when taken within the context of the remainder of a workforce’s roster. I don’t anticipate each workforce to exit and observe down an improve earlier than the August 1 deadline, and I’m much less involved with the options – lots of which have extra shifting elements concerned than a single commerce — than the issues. Unless in any other case indicated, all statistics are by means of Monday.

Red Sox

With Xander Bogaerts having departed in free company, the Red Sox deliberate to maneuver Trevor Story again to shortstop after he spent the 2022 season at second base, however in January, he underwent an inside brace process for the ulnar collateral ligament in his proper elbow, a modified model of Tommy John surgical procedure with a shorter restoration time. Enrique Hernández spent a lot of the first two and a half months enjoying shortstop, however his struggles on each side of the ball — a .222/.279/.320 (60 wRC+) batting line and terrible protection in keeping with the metrics (-9 RAA, -6 DRS, -4 UZR) — led to Yu Chang, David Hamilton, and Pablo Reyes getting their probabilities. None of it went effectively; in actual fact, the Red Sox are lifeless final within the majors in WAR at shortstop by greater than half a win.

The excellent news is that Story has progressed far sufficient in his rehab that he simply moved from Double-A Portland to Triple-A Worcester, and it’s doable that he may very well be again as quickly as this weekend. Even if he simply offers league-average offense and protection, that might be a lift. Meanwhile, on Tuesday the Red Sox traded Hernández to the Dodgers in alternate for a pair of right-handed aid prospects, Justin Hagenman and Nick Robertson. That leaves the Red Sox nonetheless having to determine their second base state of affairs, which landed them on the Killers listing — as did their first base state of affairs.

Guardians

In his first two seasons after being acquired from the Mets within the Francisco Lindor blockbuster, Amed Rosario did a strong job at shortstop, with final 12 months the marginally higher of his two seasons by way of a 103 wRC+ (.283/.312/.403) and a pair of.5 WAR. His offense has fallen off this 12 months (.265/.306/.365, 85 wRC+) as his barrel fee has dropped from 4.5% to 2.9%, although it’s price noting that the place his SLG has fallen by 38 factors, his xSLG has solely fallen by 19 factors from .396 to .377. Meanwhile, his protection has been dreadful in keeping with the metrics, with each his -16 DRS and -12 RAA the majors’ lowest marks at any infield place.

With the 27-year-old Rosario slated to hit free company this winter, the Guardians have already got a pair of potential successors on the lively roster in 23-year-old Gabriel Arias and 24-year-old Tyler Freeman, each of whom are presently serving in utility roles. Arias positioned tenth on the workforce’s high prospects listing in January as a forty five FV prospect, however he has hit simply .179/.290/.300 (69 wRC+) and has struck out in 32.1% of his plate appearances. Freeman positioned sixth on final 12 months’s listing as a 50 FV prospect; whereas he didn’t hit a lot final 12 months, he’s batting .293/.349/.373 (103 wRC+) with only a 14.1% strikeout fee. Waiting within the wings — or extra precisely, at Triple-A Columbus — is Brayan Rocchio, a 22-year-old who positioned second on the workforce listing and 54th on the Top 100 listing. While Rosario gained’t fetch as a lot proper now in commerce as he would have coming off final season, if the Guardians can discover anyone to take an opportunity on him, they will sift by means of their options with an excellent shot at enhancing upon what they’ve already gotten at shortstop this 12 months.

Marlins

Save for twenty-four video games in 2020, Jean Segura had by no means performed third base within the majors throughout his profession, however upon signing a two-year, $17 million cope with the Marlins this previous winter, he moved into the recent nook. It hasn’t gone effectively. On the defensive aspect, he’s been tough (-8 DRS, -3 RAA, -0.7 UZR), and if something it’s been even worse on the offensive aspect, as he’s hit simply .220/.281/.273. Through Tuesday, his 56 wRC+ was tied with Tim Anderson for the majors’ lowest amongst gamers with a minimum of 300 plate appearances, and his -1.1 WAR ranked because the seventh-lowest amongst all place gamers.

At the very least, the Marlins — who regardless of a latest eight-game shedding streak entered Wednesday at 54-48, one recreation out of the Wild Card spot — would in all probability be higher off turning third base duties over to utilityman Jon Berti, who has hit .292/.335/.372 (95 wRC+) whereas spending time at six completely different positions. An improve from exterior the group would assist. They might go the rental route by attempting to swing an intradivision commerce with the Nationals for Jeimer Candelario, or take an opportunity {that a} commerce can jump-start the White Sox’s Yoán Moncada. Another different can be to accumulate a participant with membership management remaining such because the Reds’ Nick Senzel or one of many Urías brothers, the Orioles’ Ramón or the Brewers’ Luis; all of them are being crowded out of the image on their respective groups.

Mets

Eduardo Escobar started the 12 months because the beginning third baseman, however by mid-April, he misplaced his job to 23-year-old rookie Brett Baty. A 2019 first-round choose, Baty entered the season at no. 23 on the Top 100 Prospects listing as a 55 FV prospect with plus-plus uncooked energy, a powerful arm, and above-average protection. So far, the package deal hasn’t fairly come collectively, as a weak displaying in July has dropped Baty to a .236/.298/.360 line (86 wRC+). He’s placing out 26.1% of the time, and whereas he’s hitting the ball arduous — his 90.2 mph common exit velocity is within the 67th percentile, his 45.7% hard-hit fee within the seventy fifth — too usually it’s on the bottom. In that regard he’s regressed; his 52% groundball fee is in keeping with his different full-season charges save for final 12 months, when he dipped to 42% due to a extra upright stance that helped him get to fastballs up and away and unlock his uncooked energy.

With Escobar traded to the Angels (see beneath), the job remains to be Baty’s, however the Mets may wish to think about using the righty-swinging Mark Vientos as a platoon companion given the left-swinging Baty’s 40 wRC+ in 60 PA in opposition to lefties. Vientos, a 23-year-old rookie who entered the season at no. 6 on the workforce’s prospect listing, has hit simply .204/.241/.259 in 58 PA, however he’s barreled 13.2% of batted balls and has a .251 xBA and .424 xSLG.

Phillies

Didn’t we simply do that? Yes, sure we did, as third base was one of many 4 positions the place the Phillies landed on the 2022 Killers lists. This time it’s solely partly Alec Bohm’s fault, as he’s began simply 36 of the workforce’s first 101 video games there, and his protection has solely been type of shaky (-6 DRS, 1.1 UZR, 1 RAA). He’s hit .279/.330/.411 (101 wRC+) general however has produced only a 76 wRC+ in his time at third. The actual perpetrator has been Edmundo Sosa, who has began 51 video games on the place and has hit simply .249/.274/.407 (80 wRC+) general, with barely below-average protection. Josh Harrison, who’s hit for only a 53 wRC+ general, hasn’t added a lot in his 9 begins right here. While the Phillies produce other wants — left discipline being a significant one now that they will DH Kyle Schwarber and play Bryce Harper at first — a repair right here can be welcome.

Yankees

The Josh Donaldson commerce might go down as one of many least well-liked in latest franchise historical past. He was a disappointment final 12 months, sinking from 26 homers, a 126 wRC+, and three.0 WAR with the Twins in 2021 to fifteen homers, a 97 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR in ’22 whereas not precisely making buddies alongside the best way. The Yankees nonetheless introduced him and his $21 million annual wage again, however after enjoying simply 5 video games, he strained his proper hamstring, then re-aggravated it whereas on a rehab project, and missed almost two full months. Over the subsequent six weeks, he performed 28 video games (although simply 18 at third base), and whereas he hit the ball arduous upon making contact (92.8 mph common exit velo, 19.7% barrel fee), he had nearly nothing to indicate for it moreover the dingers. His .142/.225/.434 line included a .076 BABIP, the bottom of any participant in AL/NL historical past with a minimum of 100 PA in a season. It seems as if he may cling on to that document, as final week Donaldson suffered a Grade 2-plus pressure in his proper calf and landed on the 60-day injured listing, which might end him for the season.

Donaldson is barely partly liable for the Yankees’ placement right here, as he’s began simply 23 video games at third, whereas DJ LeMahieu has began 54. Age and accidents have caught as much as the 35-year-old LeMahieu, who has hit simply .233/.297/.375; his 85 wRC+ is his worst mark since 2014. He’s been sizzling the previous couple of weeks (.318/.362/.477 in 47 PA since July 6), however he hasn’t had a month with a wRC+ of a minimum of 100 since April. If the Yankees resolve it’s price pursuing a playoff spot, they’ll have to scare up an improve, even when it’s solely a rental similar to Candelario.

Twins

Jose Miranda started the season because the Twins’ third baseman, however he struggled over the primary six weeks and was despatched to Triple-A. Since then, no person has caught round third for very lengthy, as Miranda, Royce Lewis, Kyle Farmer, and Willi Castro have all made a minimum of 15 begins on the place, with Donovan Solano including 9. Lewis is the one one who has supplied above-average offense (.326/.354/.474, 132 wRC+), however between his restoration from surgical procedure to restore his proper ACL a second time (sigh) and a left indirect pressure, he was out there for under about 5 weeks, and now Miranda has joined him on the IL as a consequence of a proper shoulder impingement.

Solano has been the perfect hitter of the bunch (.265/.367/.396/, 118 wRC+), however traditionally, he’s struggled at third base defensively, so supervisor Rocco Baldelli has been juggling his options. With Lewis resuming baseball actions final week, odds are that the Twins will merely proceed to combine and match till he returns someday in mid-August.

Angels

The Angels hoped that Anthony Rendon might bounce again after being restricted to 95 video games in 2021-22 as a consequence of a wide range of accidents, however he merely hasn’t been capable of keep wholesome. The 33-year-old third baseman has performed in simply 43 video games, and had already made journeys to the IL for a groin pressure and a left wrist contusion earlier than fouling a ball off his left shin on July 4. He hasn’t performed since, and whereas he didn’t endure a fracture, he was not too long ago identified with a deep bone bruise, and has been shut down for a minimum of two extra weeks. When he’s performed, he’s hit simply .236/.361/.318 (96 wRC+).

Even with out Rendon, the harm bug has continued to chunk the Angels. Gio Urshela, who coated third throughout Rendon’s first absence, could also be performed for the season as a consequence of a pelvic fracture. With Brandon Drury sidelined for the previous few weeks as a consequence of a left shoulder contusion and first base sufficient of a multitude to make the Killers listing, currently Luis Rengifo and midseason acquisitions Escobar and Mike Moustakas have been bouncing across the infield, with the Moose doing a lot of the protection of third in Rendon’s absence. Between his early-season stint in Colorado and his present one, he’s hit a good .258/.333/.447 (102 wRC+), however someplace the Angels are going to wish extra infield depth and manufacturing in the event that they plan to carry onto Shohei Ohtani in a bid to make the playoffs.