Dodgers, Guardians Shore Up Weak Spots With Rosario-Syndergaard Swap

Two former Mets are on the transfer from one playoff contender to a different, with the Guardians buying and selling Amed Rosario to the Dodgers in alternate for Noah Syndergaard and $2 million. The Dodgers obtain a shortstop who, regardless of having a down yr, provides a much-needed right-handed bat to their lineup. The Guardians obtain a pitcher who had a 7.16 ERA earlier than he landed on the IL almost two months in the past. In all, it makes for a seemingly lopsided problem commerce. Imagine going again to the autumn of 2018 and explaining to your self {that a} straight-up commerce of Syndergaard for Rosario would appear a bit of gentle for the staff receiving the previous, however don’t truly do it, as a result of your 2018 self’s head would explode, and also you’d alter the space-time continuum.

The deal got here into public consciousness on Wednesday night piecemeal, by way of a flurry of tweets from a number of of baseball’s main bombardiers. Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers reported {that a} deal for Rosario was approaching, Ken Rosenthal confirmed it, and Pat Ragazzo reported that Syndergaard can be the corresponding piece from Los Angeles. Jon Heyman was the primary to point that the Dodgers had been sending cash to the Guardians, and Zack Meisel reported the quantity. If you’re a news-breaker who didn’t get to announce the phrases of at the least one a part of this commerce, it could be time to get out of the sport.

Now in his sixth full season, Rosario has been an especially constant participant. Year in and yr out, he’s been a bit under common at quick and proper round common on the plate, with a wRC+ inside three factors of 100 in three of the final 4 seasons. In all, that’s a recipe for a two-win participant — 2.5 when the BABIP gods determine to smile on Cleveland.

Unfortunately, that consistency has not carried over to 2023. At the plate, Rosario’s 86 wRC+ is the worst because the 76 he put up within the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. His recreation has at all times centered round placing the ball on the bottom and busting it to first, however this yr he’s operating a career-high 32% fly ball price… and a career-low .239 wOBA on these fly balls. Given his xwOBA of .328 on fly balls, he’s most likely getting a bit unfortunate, however he’s additionally pulling a career-low 10.7% of them and hitting a career-high 42.9% of them to heart. That’s an effective way to underperform your anticipated stats. His barrel price can be down, and his HR/FB price is at a career-worst 3.1%. Rosario has raised his launch angle, hard-hit price, and common exit velocity, however thus far, the impact of that change has been a rise in flyouts to the massive a part of the ballpark.

Rosario’s protection is what’s actually dragging him down this season, although. His -15 OAA and -15 DRS are useless final amongst shortstops. His .963 fielding share is second-worst, his -3.0 UZR is fourth-worst, and his -2.0 DRP is sixth-worst. According to OAA, he has truly been a median shortstop when he’s enjoying straight up. All of his demerits have come when he’s been shaded over towards second or enjoying within the gap nearer to 3rd; the identical was true final yr as nicely. Rosario’s dash pace and home-to-first instances are nonetheless according to his profession norms, so it doesn’t appear possible that the decline in his protection is as a result of he bodily can’t get to the balls he used to.

Even in a down yr, Rosario checks a pair packing containers for the Dodgers. First of all, he’s a residing, respiration shortstop. The Dodgers have gotten much less worth at shortstop than at another place; it’s the one spot the place they rank within the backside third of the league.

With Miguel Vargas struggling sufficient to be despatched again right down to Triple-A, Miguel Rojas had taken over because the starter at quick. His -0.1 WAR this season matches Rosario’s, however he’s operating a wRC+ of 54. He’s additionally underperforming his xwOBA by a higher margin than Rosario, however his profession wRC+ is 12 factors decrease. Since the beginning of June, Rosario has put up a 107 wRC+, tenth amongst shortstops. It’s arduous in charge the Dodgers for hoping that he can preserve hitting and that half a season’s value of errors and ugly defensive metrics don’t point out his true expertise degree.

The Dodgers may actually use a right-handed bat, even one with an 86 wRC+. Their 117 wRC+ towards righties is one of the best in baseball, and their 109 wRC+ towards lefties is eleventh. The lefty-heavy lineup has solely had the platoon benefit in 65.6% of their plate appearances towards left-handed pitchers this season, seventh-lowest in baseball. (The Guardians are decrease at 63.3%). Rosario has a 126 wRC+ towards lefties this yr, versus 70 towards righties, very a lot according to his profession splits of 123 and 83. That immediately makes him the Dodgers’ fourth-best hitter towards lefties, forward of names like J.D. Martinez, Jason Heyward, James Outman, and Max Muncy. Combined with Tuesday’s reunion with Enrique Hernández, the Dodgers have bolstered their center infield with right-handed bats. They can let Mookie Betts and Chris Taylor spend extra time within the outfield, giving Outman and David Peralta some relaxation towards left-handed pitching.

This can be an enormous alternative for Rosario. After debuting because the quantity three prospect in all of baseball again in 2017, then settling in as a league-average common, he lands with a franchise that’s identified for serving to hitters unlock their potential. That’s a superb place to be midway by means of a contract yr.

As for the Guardians, they’re possible hoping that this commerce improves their infield as nicely. At the very least, it can clear a logjam and allow them to see what they’ve in some promising younger center infielders. After posting a 149 wRC+ in Triple-A, Tyler Freeman has 105 wRC+ in 35 video games with Cleveland this season. He’s seen extra time at second and third this season, however he primarily performed quick in 2022. Gabriel Arias has performed each infield place this season however spent a plurality of his innings in proper area. He has but to hit on the big-league degree, and his bat has by no means been his calling card, however extra constant enjoying time definitely wouldn’t damage as he tries to determine issues out. The Guardians even have the switch-hitting Brayan Rocchio ready within the wings in Columbus. The staff’s third-ranked prospect has a 108 wRC+ in Triple-A; Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin gave a 50/60 Future Value to his hit device again in January, calling him “one of many Guardians upper-level middle infielders with the talent to be an everyday player.” The Guardians are going to let the children play, particularly at shortstop.

But if letting their younger center infielders attempt their power was Cleveland’s purpose, they achieved it in considerably doubtful vogue. Syndergaard hasn’t pitched within the majors since June 7, when he went on the IL with a blister on his index finger. He’s made two begins throughout a rehab project with Triple-A Oklahoma City, permitting six runs over 10 innings. Looking forward to the third rehab begin, supervisor Dave Roberts lately informed reporters, “That’s when the rubber meets the road, and we have to make a decision.” Altogether, it appeared very possible that Syndergaard had thrown his final pitch in Dodger blue.

The Guardians may have moved Rosario to the bench whereas retaining the precise to make a qualifying supply on the finish of the season. They may have traded him elsewhere, or taken a flier on a low-level prospect. Syndergaard could be simply what they want, although: a veteran who can eat innings as they await Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill to return from the IL. But if that’s who they suppose they’re getting, they paid a fairly excessive value for him.

The different risk is that the Guardians noticed one thing they preferred in Syndergaard. They are identified for his or her pitching growth, however it’s not as if the Dodgers are slouches in that division. As Dan Szymborski put it when rating Syndergaard third on his record of midseason projection decliners: “What especially worries me — and ZiPS doesn’t account for it — is that this is happening with an organization with an excellent record of fixing up misfit toys.” Syndergaard spent the offseason working with the Dodgers to regain a few of his lacking velocity, however he has as an alternative misplaced almost two ticks off his fastball this season.

If you’re an optimist, you may level to Syndergaard’s ERA being a lot greater than his underlying numbers. The drawback is that the underlying numbers aren’t very promising both: a 5.67 xERA, 5.54 FIP, and 4.69 xFIP. Among pitchers who’ve thrown at the least 50 innings, his Stuff+ mark of 80 is the tenth worst within the league. His 17.9% HR/FB price possible makes issues look a bit worse than they really are, however he’s operating profession lows in each groundball price and popup price. That’s not a recipe for achievement. He has been very open about arduous he’s labored and his want to be “the old me.” Maybe the Guardians are excited to have somebody who desires to succeed that badly, even when it’s simply as a placeholder for his or her greater arms.

Any fan who remembers the electrical environment at Citi Field when Syndergaard was placing out 9 or 10 batters per 9 would find it irresistible if the Guardians may discover a solution to flip him round. If they may help him discover a solution to carry his ERA right down to his xFIP, making him one thing like a league-average pitcher, that may be an actual boon to a staff that’s two video games again within the AL Central. It would even be a boon to Syndergaard, who’s in a contract yr and clearly desires to maintain pitching at a excessive degree. In the meantime, he’ll be in the identical boat as all of his younger center infielder teammates, attempting to take advantage of a brand new probability at significant enjoying time.