Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/27/23

Dan Szymborski: Sorry I used to be barely late, was ending up my yearly commerce dictator piece.

Kyle: Hey Dan! With Manfred staying on as commissioner through one other spherical of CBA negotiations, do you suppose we’re headed towards one other lockout? Missed video games in 2027?

Dan Szymborski: I believe we all the time had been headed in the direction of a lower than clean CBA after this one expires, however method too quickly to inform if it leads to missed video games.

Dan Szymborski: On a elementary stage, the issues that gamers are actually sad about actually haven’t modified all that a lot.

Dan Szymborski: Luxury tax threshold nonetheless develop slower than inflation and slower than MLB’s income progress.

Takao: Bryce Miller for Jonathan India – which staff says no?

Dan Szymborski: I believe Mariners really, just because I dont’ suppose they’re psychologically on the level at which they’ll transfer younger pitching.

Ben: Did you do a ZiPS/Futures Game article this yr?  I all the time appreciated studying these and didn’t see one come via.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t as I had different midseason stuff on my plate to do that time round. I’ll in all probability have some sort of minor league projection replace earlier than the tip of the season

Oddball Herrera: My despair prediction:  The Giolito commerce from final evening is that this deadline’s greatest one

Dan Szymborski: I definitely hope not!

Kim Ng Supporter: The Marlins have traded for about 5 second basemen previously 3 years. Are they nonetheless by some means the perfect match for a Jonathan India commerce?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I believe Mariners as talked about above should have probably the most curiosity

Dan Szymborski: however I don’t suppose they’re all for parting with somebody who’s contributing proper now

Dan Szymborski: Their place within the playoff race is kinda precarious and I believe they’d be much more keen to commerce prospects

Ssssss: All these consumers can preserve their grubby little paws off Belli. Cubs exhausting or mushy consumers?

Dan Szymborski: I’m nonetheless unsure precisely whether or not the Cubs are consumers or sellers proper now.

TjF167: Is it good for baseball that so many groups are at the very least claiming a stance of being “consumers “? Is that well worth the elevated # of playoff rounds?

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure it’s essentially nice for baseball or dangerous for baseball. Seems fairly impartial as most individuals hightly into commerce deadline are the extremely interested-already followers.

A Wasteland: With the latest commerce, the one prospect LAA has within the top-100 is O’Hoppe…who has solely didn’t exhaust his eligibility attributable to important damage.

This is a hell of a strategy to complete the post-Ohtani period.

Dan Szymborski: More playoffs means extra groups which are consumers, however extra playoffs additionally imply gamers have much less affect on profitable the division/league/WS, which might scale back the worth of constructing these trades.

bob: Is Matt McClain actually this good?  Has the draft pedigree for certain, however critiques earlier than this season didn’t point out this type of breakout.  Seems like a .280 20/20 kind for years to come back.

Dan Szymborski: 130 wRC+ good? Probably not, however I believe he’s superb.

Dan Szymborski: There was an enormous disagreement between ZiPS and Steamer initially of the yr

Dan Szymborski: 76 wRC+ in Steamer, 103 in ZiPS, which is without doubt one of the greater ones!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him because the #31 prospect

David: So If Giolito is fetching a high 100 prospect and an org high 10 man, Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert could be most of a farm at this level proper?

Dan Szymborski: You’ll have to surrender at the very least two high 100 guys I believe to land both

Not a Sox fan: From an out of doors perspective… why on the earth would the ChiSox not commerce Cease? Huge vendor’s market and so they STINK. Only causes towards it are he’s not having his finest season and their division is so dangerous they may sneak in subsequent yr? Do you suppose they need to commerce or maintain?

Dan Szymborski: I imagine the White Sox have this deluded concept that staying the course will magically bounce them again in 2024

Royals: There actually is not any plan right here, no?

Dan Szymborski: No good plan, at the very least.

Dan Szymborski: They fired Dayton Moore, however they didn’t hearth his mind-set

Dan Szymborski: Like when Darth Vader would “fire” an admiral

Dan Szymborski: Just since you “fire” Admiral Ozzel doesn’t imply that Admiral Piett has new concepts

Northside: Cubs are actually on the bubble. Should Jed promote?

Dan Szymborski: I believe it is dependent upon the particulars of the affords

Dan Szymborski: If they’re underwhelming, I’d attempt to be extra aggressive and purchase

Dan Szymborski: but when groups are providing the farm and the financial institution that owns the mortgage on the farm’s land and the financial institution’s guardian firm, I would need to promote

Flat Gamin: 2nd graphics could be referred to as FLAT GAMIN

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Cris E: So perhaps the Twins simply wanted a large life-threatening biblical warmth wave to get the bats going. Why didn’t their entrance workplace do that earlier?  (Sorry, simply caught up in all of the Hate The FO on-line power. Can they do something proper, and many others and many others and many others.)

Dan Szymborski: Camera switches to Thad Levine his coal holdings and laughing

ROS: Where can I discover the perfect description of how the ROS projections are fashioned for ZIPS ROS / ZIPS DC ROS?  Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: From me presumably?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS ROS is the day by day up to date projections for the remainder of the season, with an easier mannequin than the massive year-to-year one (for sensible causes, it takes greater than a day to run a full set of projections)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS DC ROS is pro-rated to the depth chart

Zip zip zoop: How dangerous would Ozzie Albies’ lefty hitting should get earlier than you’ll need to see him go full righty? I’ve all the time held agency that even when he’s in one among his irritating ruts as a lefty, it nonetheless beats watching the inevitable RvR sliders he could be chasing

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose he’s close to that time

David: If a staff has even an eensy little bit of an opportunity to make it to the postseason, why would they promote for prospects who (prospects being what they’re) could by no means make it to the majors and have solely a really eensy probability of changing into an affect participant?

Dan Szymborski: Because, on a elementary stage, because of the playoff construction, baseball rewards amount of playoff appearances somewhat than high quality of the staff in any given playoff look

Monly: Dan, are you able to please assist me perceive staff discrepancies in wOBA and xwOBA?  For instance, the Reds gamers appear to have bigger than common discrepancies throughout the board the place their anticipated stats are a lot worse than their “real” stats.

Monly: Follow up…is that this a operate of park components?  Thank you

Dan Szymborski: I don’t calculate xwOBA, so it’s exhausting to say, although that’s definitely a chance

Dan Szymborski: zStats in ZiPS *are* park-neutral

KCbbq: With Giolito being traded to the Angles what occurs to Silseth? Is he out of a job and headed again to AAA?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be in aid at the very least

Dan Szymborski: I believe the Angels should prioritize certainty proper now

Cris E: I suppose it ought to have been apparent that if Arte was going to remain in then the Angels weren’t going to burn down something. But it will nonetheless be attention-grabbing to listen to the story behind the ocean change yesterday evening. Any probability this works out for them or is all of it window dressing for signing the unicorn this winter?

Dan Szymborski: My perception is that they werent’ blown away by the packages supplied for Ohtani

Dan Szymborski: The actuality is that any participant, irrespective of how absurdly superior, has a restrict on worth in two months

Aaron Boone: What are the chances we flip issues round with Judge again on Friday? If we don’t will I lose my job??

Dan Szymborski: Judge being again and wholesome is big, in fact, however I believe Boone’s gone if the Yankees don’t make the playoffs

Dan Szymborski: and the staff has a variety of issues that Judge can’t repair

Guest: Hey Dan, what do you consider Royals prospect, outfielder River Town? Hitting over .400 and walks a ton, hardly ever strikes out. Got some velocity, a strong arm. Looks like a Cal Stevenson +++ to me, hoped to get some perception after Eric didn’t write a lot on him within the Royals Prospect Write-Up. Fairly shocking since many Royals followers think about him a strong prospect.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose he’s that a lot of a prospect actually

Dan Szymborski: Guys that get an enormous quantity of their worth from walks isn’t a very good factor as a prospect

Dan Szymborski: Those guys have a tendency to clean out someplace on the best way to the majors

Dan Szymborski: he has little energy and little time in middle

Dan Szymborski: He’s like Nick Madrigal super-lite

Dan Szymborski: Skim Nick Madrigal

Yo-Yo: Between Montgomery, Flaherty, Dejong, Stratton, Verhagen, and presumably Hicks (if the reported extension falls via), will STL get again sufficient prospect capital to construct a cromulent pitching workers subsequent season? They want a whole overhaul, and with dwindling payrolls in recent times in comparison with league spending, I’m unsure they will do it.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose they will do it that shortly with out some spending in free company

Dan Szymborski: It’s not the flashiest group of pitchers

Alex: I’m considering including extra enjoyable in my life. What do you consider me changing my mouth wash bottle with a squirt gun pistol?

Dan Szymborski: I’m certain there are extra locations so as to add enjoyable than tooth brushing time

Dan Szymborski: Why not use a squirt gun as a condiment dispenser?

Too many Mooks: Even as a pink sox fan in direct competitors for a wildcard spot, I’m loving the Angels going for it. That is all.

J dizzle: Am I loopy to suppose Lance Lynn instantly turns into a mid rotation piece for both TB or LAD if traded to both?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose it’s loopy

Phil: What is your sense of Alex Verdugo? Ignoring how he was acquired, which isn’t honest to maintain over his head endlessly. Worth

Phil: My Verdugo query acquired minimize off, sorry–I used to be going to ask concerning the probability/knowledge of an extension.

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’s an inexpensive participant to method a few long-term extension, although it gained’t be an enormous one

Dan Szymborski: He’s a very strong participant

Dan Szymborski: however we’re speaking a 2-3 win man, not a 4-5 one

Didace: How possible is it to attain 4 runs within the ninth inning by going stroll, stroll, floor ball single, infield fly, hit by pitch, floor out to 2nd, intentional stroll, stroll, bouncer over 1st?

Dan Szymborski: Unlikely?

Dan Szymborski: There’s no method I can calculate that precise situation in my ehad! lol

Pedro: Thoughts about who will take over as CLE SS?  Thx

Dan Szymborski: I believe it’s fairly clear Arias is the man for now

Guest: Dan what do you suppose the value for Erod appears to be like like? Thinking from a Boston perspective who misses the massive lefty

Dan Szymborski: I believe the damage danger is sufficient that they get some good prospects, although I dont’ suppose anybody elite

Mike S: I do know Eric is the prospect guru, however are you able to consider any examples of a hitting prospect who was operating 35-40% Okay charges within the low minors that really went on to enhance and turn into huge league regulars?  I’m considering of Elijah Green right here

Dan Szymborski: Oh god, I don’t have that memorized!

Dan Szymborski: Bryant was over 30% in low minors, IIRC, however that’s not 35-40

Dan Szymborski: Glenallen Hill

Dan Szymborski: Can we name Branyan profitable?

Dan Szymborski: Gallo was at 37% in teh Sally League

Dan Szymborski: Pham 36% for Quad Cities

Dan Szymborski: Rob Deer’s proportion could be over tha ttoday

Dan Szymborski: nevertheless it’s not an enormous checklist

Tell me the chances: That Corbin Burnes is traded

Dan Szymborski: 75-1

Dan Szymborski: Assumign we’re speaking deadline

Yo-Yo: In common, how typically do defenders get noticeably higher after early struggles at a brand new place? I’m apprehensive about Jordan Walker; I can’t recall a participant going from worst-in-league kind protection to anyplace close to common.

Dan Szymborski: Players enhance, however I can’t think about it’ll be all THAT a lot

emh: The Guardians supposedly plan on utilizing Thor within the rotation. Convince me that’s not a foul thought.

Dan Szymborski: Well, they often have good luck with mediocre pitch-to-contact guys

Dan Szymborski: I’ll be sincere, I believe Thor is close to cooked

Appa Yip Yip: With Ohtani off the board, who do you suppose is the perfect participant that will get traded?

Dan Szymborski: Stroman?

Chip: While I personally suppose it’s a horrible thought and I’d be mad if my staff made the choice, the Angels are kinda superior for simply pushing all their chips into the center on this staff. Agree?

Dan Szymborski: Once you’re not buying and selling Ohtani, you gotta push your chips

Dan Szymborski: As I stated yesterday, Après Ohtani, le déluge

Dan Szymborski: wtf

Dan Szymborski: apr

Dan Szymborski: dangit

Dan Szymborski: après Ohtani, le déluge

darrenasu: Bryce Miller for Jordan Westberg straight up…who says no? Who wins the commerce?

Dan Szymborski: I really like the thought

Word on the road: Does Blake Snell and Josh Hader get traded quickly? Tear down in Padre land?

Dan Szymborski: I believe Hader will likely be traded. Less certain of Snell

Guest: White Sox are the AL Rockies. Every yr satisfied they’re good and the earlier yr, once they had been dangerous, was simply dangerous luck

Peofry: Your playoff aspirant wants a 1B, would you somewhat commerce for Cron or Santana?

Dan Szymborski: Surprised I’m saying this, however Santana

Holding onto prospects: I’ve/had Encarnacion Strand and Jonathan Aranda stashed, preserve or minimize?

Dan Szymborski: Certainly preserve CES

Brooks: (I believe Flat Gamin is supposed to rhyme with MATT DAMON)

Colton: After seeing the Giolito return, the Cardinals should really feel fairly good about all of the commerce items they’ve able to promote, proper?

Dan Szymborski: Absolutely

Dan Szymborski: I initially had Quero entering into my fantasy piece in a Bellinger/Stroman deal and this was a lighter return!

romorr: 2 of Cowser/Westburg/Kjerstad/Mayo as a place to begin for Logan Gilbert? I understand it won’t occur by the deadline. But as an offseason deal, sure?

Dan Szymborski: Two? I don’t suppose O’s try this

Dan Szymborski: At least as a *beginning* level

Dan: How many groups are a 3 sport profitable/dropping streak from altering their thoughts about shopping for verse promoting

Dan Szymborski: Cubs maybe

Dan Szymborski: Padres

Dan Szymborski: perhaps M’s

C-Low: Don’t test my numbers, however Bautista is on tempo to be the best WAR participant on a possible 100 win Orioles staff.  How uncommon is it for a reliever to be the best WAR participant on a playoff staff, not to mention one which wins 100?

Dan Szymborski: It’s fairly uncommon. I can’t suppose off one off hand

Guest: What does ZiPs take into consideration Brendan Donovan this yr? He was good offensively final yr, however this appears to be much more sustainable

Dan Szymborski: He’s just about the identical!

DF: Hi Dan. Dayton born and raised right here. Live in Seattle now however heading again subsequent week. Any good meals recs? Also, final week, when discussing EDC, you stated, “People who think he’s A-Rod or Tatis are on crack.” Care to expound? I’m not suggesting he’s there but, however aside from pitch choice/hit software, which he could but develop, why can’t he be Tatis?

Dan Szymborski: You can really get a good scorching pastrami now at this deli that opened up in Centerville

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ suppose he’ll as nicely rounded offensively and hsi defensive worth is worse

Dan Szymborski: All the Best I believe it’s referred to as

Dan Szymborski: good rugelach too

Dan Szymborski: haven’t tried the knishes

Dan Szymborski: sadly, they don’t do blintzes

Chippy: Does ZiPS love Julio Rodriguez, or is it in love with Julio Rodriguez?

Dan Szymborski: It would make infants with him if it had been potential

Trea Turner: Have we hit all-time low? Is there hope for the long run?

Dan Szymborski: I believe Turner will likely be positive finally, although this yr has been disappoitning

Zach Neto: How excited ought to I be long run a few 22 yr outdated with above common barrel charge, strikeout charge, max EV, and dash velocity?

Dan Szymborski: I thinK Neto has a ton of worth, however the Angels 2024 and past doesn’t look promising

Oddball Herrera: Yes, my unofficial ballot of Yankees followers I do know got here out with an awesome “We don’t care if they buy or sell this season, we just hope they fire Boone”

Spencer Steer: Is Steer actually this good? Feels like he’s cooled a little bit bit currently however general seemed like one other Reds rookie house run

Dan Szymborski: He’s not *that* far above his projections now

Appa Yip Yip: If a staff trades for Tim Anderson, will he be capable of hit baseballs once more?

Dan Szymborski: He definitely has an opportunity, and damage hasn’t helped

Wrights Back: Dan, I like the content material of FG, however the sheer quantity of adverts and movies put my browsers into overdrive.   It’s the one web site I often go to that routines refreshes as a result of it makes use of an excessive amount of reminiscence.  

Is this a ‘feature’ of the non paying model of the web site?  Is there a digital Eden behind the paywall?  Please let me know!

Dan Szymborski: we provide an ad-free membership

Dan Szymborski: What it comes all the way down to is that it pays for the location.

Thomas: Joey Gallo’s final season within the minors he had a 39% okay charge, whereas his charge hasn’t improved, he’s a giant league common

Insert Witty Name Here: Does Nola get much less cash than what was supplied earlier within the yr?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to say, we solely realize it was over 100 million

Dan Szymborski: relies upon how far over

Dan Szymborski: should you cling on, I can provide a ZiPS 2024-2028 change

Dan Szymborski: I assume we’re not speaking an Austin Nola extension!

Dan Szymborski: and Aaron

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Nola at 108 now

Dan Szymborski: and 131 initially of the yr

Ed: Dan – what phrases can specific the frustration you felt when CES made his debut, solely to have ‘-Strand’ not seem on his jersey?

Dan Szymborski: Very a lot

Dan Szymborski: they need to have stuffed HIS WHOLE NAME on the jersey

Terry: Coming from a gambler’s perspective, have you ever seemed into the distinction between a participant’s projected worth for the remainder of the season and his projected worth for TODAY’s sport? Basic query is tips on how to weight latest efficiency.

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t actually checked out *that* precise angle

SH, Jr.: who’s on the “untouchable for any reasonably likely return” line for the Orioles, in your opinion? Would you think about, e.g., Heston Okay as a headliner for any of the SPs prone to transfer?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they’d transfer Kjerstad as a part of the perfect SPs possible obtainable

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose they’d transfer Henderson or Holliday

Guest: Russel Branyan gathered 12 WAR over components of 13 seasons. That’s “successful”, I suppose, however I might think about it’s far lower than hoped for out of a top-5 decide

Insert Witty Name Here: If you had been to match your profitable writing profession to any MLB gamers profession, who wouldn’t it be?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, Johnny Damon perhaps?

Dan Szymborski: I believe I’ve been fairly profitable, however I’m definitely not superb, and I doubt anyone considers me an A-lister amongst baseball writers

Dan Szymborski: however I’ve been round an extended rattling time now

Dan Szymborski: and I don’t get haircuts fairly often

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually take into consideration my place and evaluating your self is all the time going to be fraught with issues

Dan Szymborski: I attempt to do the perfect work I can and let no matter occurs occur

Chris: Mike Elias will get cute on the deadline and add only one or 2 bulk RPs as an alternative of a legit starter the Orioles want. Am I mistaken?

Dan Szymborski: It’s definitely a chance

Dan Szymborski: I can see the world by which the O’s get scared off by asking costs

Dobber: Should pitchers pitch to their strengths or to batters’ weaknesses?

Dan Szymborski: Both ideally!

Dan Szymborski: Though  you need to do what you do nicely

Kiké’s Infectious Smile: What is “xwOBAcon,” apart from a enjoyable strategy to sneak the phrase “bacon” right into a dialogue of baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I believe that was in actual fact the case

Cave Dameron: Dan, which one among your cats has the best commerce worth? Thank you, very cool!

Dan Szymborski: Justinian I believe. Him and Constantine are the youngest and Justinian has the extra participating persona

Dan Szymborski: Constantine is moody

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Trade supply: Cincinatti sends Skyline Chili to Connecticut for Clam Pizza.  Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Please not Connecticut

Medium Chungus: For a few 2 week window, it seemed like Andrew Vaughn was about to interrupt out…now it appears hes again to being a boring if-i-have-to 1B in a deep league. Is there any hope of him taking a step up or is that this simply who he’s?

Dan Szymborski: I hoped that this might be his yr

Dan Szymborski: nevertheless it hasn’t actually been and there’s much less of an opportunity now

Sanford: Vouching for the ad-free membership—it makes an enormous efficiency distinction (and I’m in fact glad to assist the workers)

B’ryce Szymbobski: Fangraphs membership is completely price it, fyi!

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, we weant individuals to have a very good expertise, however we *additionally* do need to pay our full-time workers competitively and *not* have a paywall

Dan Szymborski: Every selection goes to have a tradeoff.

Dan Szymborski: Light on adverts for everybody in all probability means a paywall.

Dan Szymborski: Light on adverts *and* no paywall in all probability means being a part of an enormous media coporation that doens’t essentially want to show a revenue on us, however there are context dangers there; sooner or later everythin gmight pivot to video or one thing!

Dan Szymborski: At least that’s how I see it, I can solely communicate for myself, not in any official capability right here

Byron Denniston: Does ZiPs included batted ball information nowadays?

Dan Szymborski: Has for years

Farhandrew Zaidman: to proceed to Johnny Damon comp – you’re a helpful asset, simply not for the explanations individuals suppose, and doubtless overrated all issues thought of?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe?

Dan Szymborski: It’s guesswork

Dan Szymborski: There’s no stat line on the market for a baseball author to match

Dan Szymborski: It’s difficult determining precisely what individuals consider you

Dan Szymborski: ESPN used to neglect that I existed at instances. But was that them or was it that I didn’t have sufficient attraction?

Dan Szymborski: And whereas I believe there are legitimate causes to love my work, I can consider legitimate causes to not like me in any respect

Dan Szymborski: On that notice, I’ve a bit to complete, so I’ve to get going for this week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!