Let’s Make Some Deals: 2023 Commerce Deadline Version

With lower than per week to go till the commerce deadline, issues have been comparatively quiet on the transaction entrance, presumably as a result of uncertainty surrounding Shohei Ohtani’s availability. But now that an Ohtani commerce is off the desk, I believe we are able to count on issues to essentially begin transferring within the subsequent day or so. That makes this the right time for one in every of my favourite/most dreaded items of the 12 months, through which I kick issues off with some commerce imagineering that hopefully doesn’t end in too many individuals being mad at me. Not all of those offers would essentially be accepted in the event that they had been provided as-is — groups worth gamers in a different way, in spite of everything — nor am I reporting on precise trades which might be within the works. But I attempted to make it possible for every of those offers was believable and truly met the wants of the groups in query. Let’s get to it!

The Philadelphia Phillies purchase 1B Paul Goldschmidt from the St. Louis Cardinals for OF Johan Rojas, SS Hao-Yu Lee, and OF Carlos De La Cruz

Right now, the Phillies are hoping to get Rhys Hoskins, who’s a free agent on the finish of the season, again for a playoff run. But somewhat than pin their postseason desires on a man coming off a major harm, why not merely get a plug-and-play first baseman who’s signed via 2024? If Hoskins seems to be wholesome for the playoffs, the Phillies could have an additional pinch-hitter prepared for situational responsibility. But in the event that they commerce for Goldschmidt, it might solidify first base whereas additionally permitting them to place Bryce Harper again at DH most video games. That would depart Kyle Schwarber and the closely slumping Nick Castellanos to struggle for enjoying time as soon as Cristian Pache returns from his elbow harm (assuming he picks up the place he left off). The Phillies are ninth within the NL in runs scored and with a reasonably set lineup, there simply aren’t lots of locations so as to add important run manufacturing. Goldschmidt is about pretty much as good as you are able to do on the deadline this 12 months.

On the opposite facet, Rojas offers the Cardinals a few of what they misplaced when Harrison Bader was despatched to the Yankees, whereas Lee might finally find yourself taking part in second base for the Red Birds. Lastly, De La Cruz is a extremely intriguing bat who’s type of blocked in Philadelphia in the intervening time.

The Baltimore Orioles purchase P Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox for INF Jordan Westburg, CF Jud Fabian, SS Joey Ortiz, and P Justin Armbruester

The Orioles have churned out a formidable assortment of hitting prospects the previous couple of years, however the farm system hasn’t been capable of provide you with beginning pitching anyplace close to as nicely. Even assuming that Grayson Rodriguez works out, the Orioles doubtless want extra rotation assist and it’s in all probability going to have to return from exterior the group. That may imply buying and selling away a few of their younger hitters and watching them succeed elsewhere. The staff is contending, however I don’t suppose the entrance workplace is abruptly full of untamed gamblers, so I doubt we’ll begin seeing names like Coby Mayo or Heston Kjerstad transfer for short-term leases.

Dylan Cease, nevertheless, will not be a short-term rental; the Orioles would get to maintain him till the top of the 2025 season. This could also be blasphemy to some, however given their respective contract conditions, I’d fortunately quit extra for Cease than I might for Ohtani. Westburg’s inventory has shot up this 12 months, and with ZiPS seeing him as an above-average starter within the majors proper now, the White Sox might reap the advantages of getting him on the staff in a short time. Since Cease represents important worth, the Pale Hose are going to want to supply extra than simply Westburg, so I included two attention-grabbing offensive prospects in Fabian and Ortiz who might assist shore up the group’s lackluster depth. I additionally included Armbruester, a little bit talked-about pitching prospect who in all probability has a very good shot at becoming at the back of the rotation within the not-too-distant future.

The large query is simply how obtainable Cease truly is. The White Sox are a large number in the intervening time, however they’ve given each indication that they suppose they’ll be contenders in 2024. That may make it tough to get them to half with Cease with out a ridiculously lopsided provide. I don’t suppose the Orioles would go that far, however it’s actually value asking.

The Los Angeles Angels purchase OF Cody Bellinger and P Marcus Stroman from the Chicago Cubs for P Jack Kochanowicz, SS Kyren Paris, and P Sam Bachman

Après Ohtani, le déluge. Ohtani is ending the season in Anaheim, and whereas we’ve talked so much about theoretical Ohtani trades, we haven’t actually mentioned what the Angels ought to do in the event that they’re consumers as an alternative of sellers. Since they’ve determined to maintain Ohtani, it doesn’t make sense to only shuffle round the place they’re; in case you’re pushing in your chips, push in all of your rattling chips. The Angels already picked up Lucas Giolito from the Sox, however that may not be sufficient given their place within the playoff race. Stroman and Bellinger are each short-term leases, no less than if Stroman opts out of the ultimate 12 months of his deal, which is sort of actually the correct transfer from his perspective. If I had been the Angels, I’d quit much more than this — I initially had them giving up Edgar Quero because the centerpiece, however they already traded him for Giolito. I’d even be open to together with a distinct pitcher if the Cubs had been fearful about Bachman’s shoulder.

The Cincinnati Reds purchase P Eduardo Rodriguez from the Detroit Tigers for P Brandon Williamson, CF Michael Siani, and P Carson Spiers

The NL Central is ripe for the taking, and the Reds actually might use a beginning pitcher to assist safe a division crown. (I initially despatched Giolito to Cincinnati, however trades look forward to no man… to complete writing his piece.) I don’t count on the Reds to surrender the home for anybody — productive minor leaguers are principally a necessity if the staff goes to be a basement-tier spender. But I don’t suppose the Tigers will get a haul for E-Rod, as he’s nearly assured to hit free company by way of his opt-out — he’ll simply beat the three years and $49 million remaining on his present deal — and carries heightened harm threat. Maybe this isn’t sufficient to tempt the Tigers, however I’d actually attempt to provide a bundle like this primary. I’d be open to speaking about Chase Petty or Christian Encarnacion-Strand if I completely need to.

The San Francisco Giants purchase P Jordan Montgomery and SS Paul DeJong from the St. Louis Cardinals for P Landen Roupp and P Keaton Winn

My aim right here was to enhance the Giants with out making a commerce that requires them to surrender Kyle Harrison, Luis Matos, or Marco Luciano, as I don’t suppose they’d try this besides in excessive circumstances. The rotation hasn’t been nice after Logan Webb and Alex Cobb, and because the Giants have superb playoff odds, one other reliable arm within the rotation is a should. They can select from the also-rans situationally when a fourth starter is required in a possible playoff collection. I like Casey Schmitt, however his aggression on the plate has been taken benefit of by pitchers, and Brandon Crawford, whereas higher, is nicely previous his peak. It might have gone unnoticed given St. Louis’ extraordinarily disappointing season, however DeJong has put up a pleasant little season. He’s on observe for 20 homers and is not trying up longingly on the Mendoza line. Roupp has a transparent path to the rotation in St. Louis in 2024 (the staff wants starters), and Winn affords some flexibility in his utilization. That Winn is a fastball/splitter pitcher with no spectacular breaking pitch doesn’t even doom him to the bullpen; Kevin Gausman has proven that success can occur with that profile. Both these prospects have pretty excessive flooring with out large ceilings, and that’s normally proper up the Cards’ alley.

The Minnesota Twins purchase P Josh Hader from the San Diego Padres for P Marco Raya and P Brent Headrick

The projections nonetheless give the Padres a combating probability on the playoffs, however I believe we’re approaching the brink the place San Diego tries to retool a bit and commerce off expertise that isn’t signed for 2024. This is a vendor’s market, and given the state of the Padres farm system, the lure of getting some prospects again must be actual. I don’t suppose the Twins will make an enormous transfer, no less than partly due to the massive league success the prospects they traded to the Reds and Orioles final 12 months have skilled, however our depth charts (and ZiPS by itself) see the Twins as having one of many weakest and shallowest bullpens among the many contending groups. And there isn’t more likely to be anybody higher than Hader obtainable.

The Milwaukee Brewers purchase 3B Jeimer Candelario from the Washington Nationals for 2B Robert Moore and SS Freddy Zamora

I can’t think about that the Brewers will stand utterly pat given their precarious lead within the NL Central, however I believe they aren’t within the combine for the very best gamers obtainable on the deadline. The staff is thirteenth within the NL in runs scored, so they should add offense quick, and Candelario’s a stable bat to plug into the center of the order for 2 months. Third base has been one of many lineup’s (many) weak spots. Brian Anderson has been pretty mediocre this season and is at present on the injured listing, whereas Luis Urías, beforehand one of many staff’s unsung heroes, missed time with an harm to begin the season after which performed such dangerous baseball upon his return that he ended up again in Triple-A. Urías has hit higher of late within the minors, however I don’t suppose the Brewers ought to be placing all their eggs in that basket with such little time left to search out one other plan. Plus, even when Urías storms again to the majors, the Brew Crew have been terrible at first base and designated hitter, too.

The Tampa Bay Rays purchase P Kyle Finnegan from the Washington Nationals for SS Greg Jones

While Hader can be lots of enjoyable on the Rays, Tampa Bay tends to go the quieter route. The Rays bullpen has been unusually shallow (for them) this 12 months, and whereas Finnegan has been merely middling for the Nats, his stuff is healthier than his strikeout price suggests, with a plus fastball and splitter to go together with an honest slider. This is a corporation that has a knack for squeezing efficiency out of underperforming pitchers with uncooked instruments, and I believe they may do equally with Finnegan, who isn’t a free agent till after 2025. Jones is blocked at shortstop by a Wanderwall, and the Nats are within the stage of their rebuild the place they need to be grabbing as a lot uncooked expertise as they’ll, no matter place.

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