Tuesday, October 22

Mad Max Headvertisements to Texas

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

One of the largest names on the commerce market discovered a brand new residence on Saturday night because the Texas Rangers picked up pitcher Max Scherzer from the New York Mets in return for shortstop prospect Luisangel Acuña, per Andy Martino. Scherzer’s contract runs by way of 2024 at a hefty $43.33 million per season, with the Mets overlaying slightly greater than $35 million of his remaining deal. Per Jeff Passan, Scherzer gained’t train his participant opt-out and can stay with the Rangers by way of the top of his contract.

Scherzer isn’t simply one of many deadline’s most well-known names, after all, however one of many elite pitchers of his technology. And whereas he’s not at his peak, his 3.65 FIP takes among the sting out of him posting his first ERA north of 4.00 since 2011. Indeed, as Mets’ disasters go, Scherzer’s season has been a reasonably delicate one. His strikeout and stroll charges are unimpressive by his requirements, however they didn’t dive off a cliff; a variety of the issue has been gopher balls, which are usually fairly risky for pitchers.

The Rangers’ motivation right here is apparent. Their success this season has been a nice shock, however their breakout is generally as a result of crew’s offense main the league in runs scored reasonably than its pitching prowess. With Jacob deGrom’s harm, solely Nathan Eovaldi and Dane Dunning have been standouts in Texas. Jon Gray has been pitching like a serviceable mid-rotation starter, however Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney aren’t prone to encourage dread in opposing lineups come October. It stays to be seen whether or not the Rangers can maintain off the Astros, however some form of playoff look is probably going, and Texas had an actual have to agency up its postseason rotation. It definitely doesn’t damage that including Scherzer will help the Rangers hold the Astros from sneaking into the division lead within the meantime.

ZiPS expects Scherzer to pitch higher than he has thus far this season, although not fairly to the extent of his finest years.

ZiPS Projection – Max Scherzer

Year W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
RoS 2023 4 3 3.36 11 11 64.3 55 24 10 15 77 130 1.2
2024 9 8 3.94 24 24 141.7 127 62 25 36 159 109 2.2

ZiPS Projection Percentiles – Max Scherzer (2024)

Percentile ERA+ ERA WAR
95% 173 2.47 4.4
90% 150 2.84 3.8
80% 134 3.19 3.3
70% 124 3.46 2.9
60% 114 3.75 2.5
50% 109 3.94 2.2
40% 101 4.22 1.9
30% 94 4.57 1.4
20% 87 4.94 1.0
10% 79 5.39 0.6
5% 72 5.97 0.0

There’s a fairly large projected drop-off from 2023 to 2024, as any participant approaching 40 represents a major threat. However, even a reasonably middling 2024 projection is prone to be helpful to the Rangers.

The Mets nonetheless have a non-zero probability of creating the playoffs, however proprietor Steve Cohen didn’t spend a bazillion {dollars} to try to limp into the postseason. To my thoughts, buying and selling Scherzer doesn’t sign a change in strategy a lot as a brief tactical retreat to allow them to combat one other day on terrain extra to their liking.

If the Mets hadn’t included any cash, they probably wouldn’t have acquired a major prospect in return and won’t have been been in a position to shut the deal in any respect. Instead, the $35 million headed to Arlington helped them fetch Acuña. Thanks to his very well-known brother, Acuña has a variety of title recognition for a prospect of his stage. But he’s not driving on anybody’s coattails, as he’s a wonderful prospect who has blossomed upon repeating Double-A this 12 months. Acuña is an aggressive participant with spectacular bodily instruments and plate self-discipline that isn’t a tire fireplace. He already has 42 stolen bases within the minors this 12 months, and in a full season within the majors, has a great shot at difficult for the league lead in swipes. And a .280/.319/.381 translation for a 21-year-old shortstop who isn’t merely faking the place? Yes, please.

ZiPS Projection – Luisangel Acuña

Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2024 .240 .297 .337 513 68 123 19 2 9 59 41 137 41 78 -2 1.6
2025 .240 .298 .344 529 70 127 21 2 10 62 43 134 41 80 -2 1.8
2026 .239 .300 .349 539 73 129 22 2 11 65 46 130 40 81 -1 2.1
2027 .239 .301 .352 545 75 130 22 2 12 67 48 126 39 83 -1 2.2
2028 .238 .301 .353 547 75 130 23 2 12 68 49 123 37 83 -1 2.2
2029 .234 .298 .348 546 74 128 22 2 12 67 49 119 34 81 -1 2.0
2030 .238 .302 .353 538 74 128 22 2 12 67 49 118 32 83 0 2.2

ZiPS Projection Percentiles – Luisangel Acuña (2024)

Percentile 2B HR BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR
95% 30 17 .287 .349 .430 113 4.3
90% 28 15 .279 .335 .409 106 3.7
80% 24 12 .265 .323 .385 98 3.0
70% 22 11 .257 .317 .367 91 2.5
60% 21 10 .245 .307 .351 85 2.0
50% 19 9 .240 .297 .337 78 1.6
40% 18 8 .231 .289 .325 73 1.2
30% 17 8 .222 .282 .315 68 0.8
20% 15 7 .215 .273 .305 63 0.5
10% 13 6 .203 .259 .284 56 -0.2
5% 12 5 .190 .249 .268 47 -0.9

Acuña’s offensive comp record is in all places, as one would possibly count on for such a uncooked expertise. The finest names within the high 20 or so embrace Rafael Furcal, Dave Concepcion, Trea Turner, Rod Carew, and Tim Anderson. On the unhealthy facet, you see gamers like Donell Nixon, Alfredo Griffin, and Wilton Guerrero.

Michael Baumann might be alongside shortly with extra on this commerce, so keep tuned.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com