2023 has been a tough 12 months for the St. Louis Cardinals. They’re used to residing within the NL Central penthouse, trying askance at no matter group occurs to battle them for supremacy in a given season. Sometimes they lose these battles – the Cubs put collectively a pleasant run within the mid-2010s, the Reds had their time within the solar earlier than that, and the Brewers have been a thorn in St. Louis’ facet in recent times. But this sort of collapse – 47-60 and final place within the division – is exceptional.
The silver lining? The Cardinals had a ton of expiring contracts coming into the season, which suggests they’ve a ton of gamers to commerce. With the deadline rapidly approaching, they’re beginning to flip these gamers into prospects. In two offers on Sunday, the Cardinals despatched out Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, and Chris Stratton. Montgomery and Stratton are headed to the Rangers; in the meantime, higher hope Hicks has a passport, as a result of he’s now a Blue Jay. Eric Longenhagen is protecting the prospects who’re coming again to the Gateway City in a separate piece. Here, I’m simply going to give attention to how these three match with their new groups, and the Cardinals’ basic technique from right here on out.
Let’s begin with the Rangers. This one is fairly easy: Montgomery slots right into a hilariously deep Texas rotation. After buying Max Scherzer on Saturday, their playoff rotation appeared stable. Now it seems to be even higher. Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi (well being allowing) are an above-average prime duo, Montgomery is overqualified as a 3rd starter, and after him there’s an entire seize bag of men I wouldn’t really feel both nice or horrible about as my final playoff starter. Dane Dunning, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Martín Pérez are all cromulent choices, and the three who don’t draw a rotation project would possibly play up out of the bullpen.
Montgomery is a lower above that foursome, and that’s crucial for the Rangers. He’ll assist in the common season, after all, and provides them tons of redundancy in case of damage. But a robust prime three is absolutely essential on condition that we predict they’re principally a coin flip to win the division – end behind the Astros and a 3 sport playoff sequence awaits. Montgomery makes that sequence barely much less more likely to come up within the first place, and he’s a significant improve because the third starter within the Wild Card spherical ought to that unlucky circumstance come to cross.
Stratton is basically a throw-in, however he’s a beneficial one for a Texas bullpen that was trying skinny on the backside. Grant Anderson, Yerry Rodríguez, Spencer Howard, and John King (dealt on this commerce) had been all center inning sieves, turning small leads into small deficits and small deficits into large ones. Stratton is hardly a better, however he’s an affordable center reliever. He would possibly get pushed down the pecking order when among the group’s starters head bullpenward within the playoffs. Before then, although, he’ll give the Rangers a marginal improve over what that they had earlier than each time he enters a sport, and that form of factor issues in tight divisional races.
The Rangers didn’t half with any present main leaguers – King pitched for the large membership this 12 months, however he’d been optioned to Triple-A. Again, Eric is protecting who Texas despatched out in better depth, together with infielder Thomas Saggese, however Tekoah Roby, a Top 100 prospect, is the primary identify value realizing. This commerce is about successful this 12 months with out sacrificing an excessive amount of from the instant future. Yes, Roby might make the bigs subsequent season, however Texas has a ton of pitching depth, what with all these names bouncing round as potential fourth starters and all. The group’s finest gamers are principally of their prime years proper now, in order that plan is sensible to me. Giving up Roby isn’t costless, nevertheless it’s only a logical extension of the pondering that led to buying and selling Luisangel Acuña to get Scherzer.
On to the subsequent commerce: Toronto already has a reasonably good bullpen. Their worst pitcher in the intervening time might be Génesis Cabrera, who the group not too long ago acquired from St. Louis in a separate commerce. After that, possibly it’s Nate Pearson or Trevor Richards, neither of whom are unhealthy choices as lower-tier bullpen arms. What Toronto is lacking is a real lockdown kind on the prime with Jordan Romano on the IL.
That makes Hicks an ideal match north of the border. He has ludicrous stuff; his 103 mph fastball pairs fairly properly with a nasty sweeping slider that he throws within the higher 80s. The proven fact that he throws a sinker as a substitute of a driving four-seamer means he’s all the time going to permit a good variety of balls in play, and he’s all the time struggled with command, however the backside line is that this: nobody desires to face Jordan Hicks in an enormous spot. He was most likely the very best reliever available on the market after David Robertson acquired dealt.
When Romano returns, the Blue Jays can have a luxurious merchandise, a closer-level reliever doing setup work. That’s all the time good within the playoffs, when closing the door with a small lead is essential. More importantly, although, the Blue Jays want a stable bullpen proper now. They’re in a tenuous place, clinging to the third Wild Card slot with 4 groups inside 5 video games of them. They can take into consideration the playoffs after they make the playoffs; they’re in survival mode.
Like the Rangers, the Blue Jays didn’t sacrifice something from their 2023 plans to accumulate Hicks. That is sensible – what would the Cardinals need with these guys anyway? Toronto didn’t hand over anybody with as a lot likelihood of being an affect participant as Texas did in Roby, however each Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein appear to be potential back-end starters, and the present plan in St. Louis for a 2024 rotation is Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and cardboard cutouts of Fredbird. A number of bulk arms are simply what the Cardinals are taken with.
That brings us again to the place we began: St. Louis. These offers are a part of a fairly apparent technique for the Cardinals. I prefer to name it Operation Get Pitching Now. The highlights of each of those commerce returns had been starters to rebuild each their skinny main league ranks and their uninspiring prospect pipeline. They’ve lagged behind the remainder of baseball in prioritizing strikeout stuff and leaning into pitcher improvement, and that is the inevitable consequence. John Mozeliak particularly talked about that the group prioritized including pitchers with excessive whiff charges in these offers, in reality.
There are seemingly extra arms coming in quickly. Jack Flaherty is pretty much as good as gone. Paul DeJong might be nonetheless going to maneuver. Tyler O’Neill will probably be subsequent if Dylan Carlson isn’t. Giovanny Gallegos could be well-served to maintain an additional few modifications of garments in his street journey bag. St. Louis got here into 2023 anticipating to make the playoffs, which suggests they’ve a ton of gamers that playoff groups need. They’re going to show lots of these guys into pitchers to allow them to kick off 2024 doing the identical factor they attempt to do each season: make the playoffs, hopefully win the division, and assume the farm will churn out common regulars for years to return.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com