The Cardinals’ Style In Prospects Signifies Hope For A Fast Rebuild

The Cardinals are formally partaking in a average short-term rebuild, buying and selling Jordan Hicks to Toronto for pitching prospects Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein, and Jordan Montgomery to Texas for righty Tekoah Roby, infielder Thomas Saggese, and reliever John King. Each of those gamers may go well with up for the Cardinals within the massive leagues inside the subsequent 12 months, particularly King (already an enormous leaguer) and the 2 pitchers getting back from Toronto, who will possible be added to the 40-man roster after the season. Roby and Saggese have spent their 2023 seasons at Double-A Frisco and are inside vary of the majors although they don’t need to be placed on the 40-man till after the 2024 slate. You can see the place every of the newly-acquired prospects falls on the Cardinals checklist over on The Board.

Let’s begin by going over the Montgomery return, because the most vital prospect acquired by the Cardinals comes over in that deal. Roby, 21, moved onto the Top 100 prospects checklist once I up to date the Rangers system a few weeks in the past, and he would have been even increased if not for his present shoulder damage, which shelved him in early June. Before he was shut down, Roby was persistently working with 4 plus pitches. He was sitting 94–95 mph with driving life, bending in one of many nastier curveballs within the minors, tilting in a equally formed slider within the mid-80s, and turning over a tailing low-80s changeup, all of which have been able to lacking bats. He regarded like a contender’s four-pitch, mid-rotation starter, like a much less bodily Hunter Brown.

Roby’s supply does have some violence, however he’s all the time thrown strikes despite this. He is barely undersized (however well-built) at 6-foot-1 and has now had arm accidents in two of his three professional seasons, so there’s undoubtedly reduction danger right here regardless of his strike-throwing observe report. From a stuff and pitch execution standpoint, he’s the place Jack Leiter was anticipated to be when he was drafted. On upside, Roby is a large get for the Cardinals and could possibly be the large league membership’s finest beginning pitcher inside a yr or two. Once wholesome, he has an opportunity to kick down the door, although shoulder points will be notably scary and destabilizing to a younger pitcher’s profession.

There’s injury-related danger with Roby, however he’s probably the most gifted participant becoming a member of the Cardinals group in these offers. That stated, some scouts would argue for Saggese, an undersized 21-year-old infielder with a really superior really feel for contact. One scout supply of mine who has top-to-bottom Rangers protection considers him among the finest 5 prospects within the system. Saggese is hitting .314/.380/.514 in 2023 and has carried out comfortably above the league common at every minor league cease, with a wRC+ hovering round 130 at every degree. His underlying TrackMan information is inferior to his floor efficiency has tended to be, and his 2023 information suggests there’s going to be some regression right here, largely as a result of he’s pretty chase-prone. But his potential to provide impression contact with launch is remarkably constant, and although he’s a smaller man (not fairly as skinny as Matt Duffy, however getting there), he appears more likely to get to in-game energy.

Saggese has a really old skool baseball vibe about him: no batting gloves; a easy, wristy swing that sprays fastballs the opposite means; and sound infield protection reliant on effort and really feel greater than athleticism. He is finest at recognizing and punishing breaking balls; a majority of his extra-base hits in 2023 have come towards sliders, which he tracks and whacks with robot-like precision. Part of why he isn’t graded extra extremely is due to the dearth of efficiency towards fastballs. Saggese can also’t play shortstop; he’s finest at third and might moonlight at second. We’re taking a look at one thing near a median hit and energy combo right here, which isn’t a slam dunk on a regular basis profile for a nook infielder however must be a lot for him to have a prolonged massive league profession as a righty-hitting part-time common at second and third. And whereas he’s not essentially a participant the Cardinals are going to win due to, he’s undoubtedly a participant they will win with as a part of a multi-player platoon throughout a few positions. He’s graded as a 40+ FV prospect, which is on par with an impactful nook position participant, however not a real on a regular basis man. He’s a possible 2024 debutant, particularly if Nolan Arenado is traded.

Also coming over from Texas is King, a four-year massive league veteran and low-slot lefty changeup specialist whose strikeout charges have been on the decline for the final two seasons, although his floor ball price has skyrocketed. King has been forwards and backwards between Texas and Triple-A Round Rock this season, amassing 40 whole innings of lengthy reduction work. His fastball has had just a little little bit of a velo spike, however his secondary pitches — a trademark changeup that has been his finest weapon since his prospect days, and a slider — have each had substantial upticks in velocity.

King’s supply has modified just a little bit. It’s nonetheless a stiff, violent, cross-bodied operation, however his line to the plate seems to be a bit extra direct this season. It hasn’t made his stuff so nasty that he out of the blue tasks as a middle-inning stalwart; he’ll possible proceed to function in an up/down capability so long as he has choice years left, after which both sink or swim as a reverse splits lefty towards the underside of an energetic roster’s employees. The transfer clears a 40-man spot for the Rangers to make room for Montgomery and provides the Cardinals a heat physique for his or her present bullpen.

As far because the Hicks return is worried, the Cardinals did effectively to accumulate two comparatively mature beginning pitching prospects for one inconsistent reliever. Though he’s having his finest bat-missing season thus far, Hicks has by no means been as dominant as his elite velocity would point out, and he entered 2023 coming off of two years with ERAs shut to five.00 and FIPs north of 4.00. While I’m certain the Cardinals and their followers would a lot moderately be contending proper now, and a seemingly peaking Hicks is a good late-inning asset, they’re lucky to be promoting excessive on him when there have been occasions over the last half decade after they’d have gotten much less for him — from a service time pound-for-pound standpoint — than they did right here.

The centerpiece of the return is 21-year-old Dutch righty Robberse, a elegant strike-thrower who has spent all of 2023 at Double-A New Hampshire, the place he posted an ERA only a shade over 4.00 previous to the commerce. He throws from a three-quarters slot with an extended arm motion, however he repeats the supply very effectively, throwing every providing of his four-pitch arsenal from equivalent launch factors. His fastball solely sat round 91 mph in 2022, nevertheless it’s been extra within the 92–94 vary this season, whilst Robberse has stretched out later within the yr. He’s nonetheless solely 21, and although he’s slight of construct, it’s believable that this early 2023 velo bump will maintain by way of bodily maturation.

Robberse instructions the heater to the place it performs finest, and it seems to tunnel effectively together with his different pitches, particularly his changeup. He has considerably restricted fastball utility as a result of the pitch is weak within the zone, however his superior really feel for his upper-80s cutter/slider helps treatment that, and he tends to lean on it when he wants a strike. His upper-80s changeup is arguably his nastiest pitch; it tails and dives away from lefties with unusual depth for the way arduous it’s, although he doesn’t use it as a lot as his cutter/slider. A low-80s curveball with solid-average depth and chunk offers him a fourth viable weapon. He is a high-probability back-end starter on a contender, and his command makes him really feel like a comparatively secure prospect although he’s the age of a school prospect. Robberse will possible be added to the Cardinals 40-man roster after the 2023 season and debut subsequent season.

The different prospect headed to St. Louis is Kloffenstein, a huge 22-year-old righty and 2018 third-rounder who has had an uptick in efficiency this yr after plateauing for a number of prior seasons. He regarded like a possible sinker/slider workhorse when he was drafted out of highschool, however he was an unexceptional strike-thrower and total performer by way of the 2022 season, sliding into the honorable mentions part of the Blue Jays checklist because of this. But Toronto altered the tempo of his supply and lowered his arm slot this yr, and he started to indicate superior outcomes as a 22-year-old repeating Double-A, posting a 28% strikeout price and 9% stroll price with a 3.24 ERA earlier than the commerce.

The change in his arm slot didn’t impression Kloffenstein’s career-long potential to get floor balls at a near-50% price, and his slider (which he throws a ton, over half the time) nonetheless has bat-missing two-plane form. There’s an opportunity that he now has two distinct breakers; the form of his slider is fairly variable, and it’s powerful to inform if that’s intentional or not. While his walks have come down this season, his command nonetheless isn’t nice, and it’s potential his launch is simply not constant sufficient, making it appear like he has a sweeper and a cutter when in truth he’s simply throwing one breaking ball. A sinker/slider combo allows Kloffenstein to work southeast/southwest together with his stuff, and his sinking changeup is nice sufficient to spherical out a starter-quality repertoire. I purchase that the mechanical modifications right here have made an actual distinction; he’s a possible postseason 40-man add and tasks as an inning-eating backend starter, and might be the prospect from these trades probably to debut first.

A “stand-pat” 2024 Cardinals spring rotation combine presently seems to be like Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Matthew Liberatore, and loads of prospects. Connor Thomas is already on the 40-man; Ian Bedell, Robberse and Kloffenstein will possible be added this offseason; and Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, and a number of potential quick-movers may enter the fray sooner or later in the course of subsequent season. There’s depth and youth, however no confirmed, top-of-the-rotation sort within the fold proper now; Tink Hence (whose per-outing workload has grown of late) and a wholesome Roby at the moment are the 2 probably candidates to offer that from inside over the following few seasons.

Before this flurry of strikes, together with the Genesis Cabrera commerce, the Twenty fourth-ranked Cardinals lined up roughly two normal deviations beneath the estimated high quality of the typical farm system; they’re now roughly one normal deviation beneath the typical. They solely moved up a few spots within the ordinal rankings, however the extra vital takeaway is that they moved up a tier right into a cluster of 40-grade farm programs. I believe it’s truthful to incorporate the grads and think about the Cards to have a roughly common contingent of younger gamers, total.

More objectively, I requested Dan to present us a ZiPS snapshot for what the 2024 NL Central seems to be like with the rosters as they’re presently constituted. Things appear like they’ll be tight — mild on expertise however excessive on drama.